Thread by @JonahLupton

E-commerce valuations using 2022 estimates
(EV = enterprise value / GP = gross profit)

$AMZN
Current EV = $1.67 trillion
2022 revenue estimate = $572 billion
2022 gross margins = 42%
2022 gross profit = $701 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 19.7%

$AMZN = 7x 2022 EV/GP

$SHOP
Current EV = $183 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $6.2 billion
2022 gross margins = 54%
2022 gross profit = $3.35 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 34.5%

$SHOP = 54x 2022 EV/GP

$GLBE
Current EV = $10.4 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $334 million
2022 gross margins = 36%
2022 gross profit = $120 million
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 58.1%

$GLBE = 86x 2022 EV/GP

$SE
Current EV = $145 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $12.1 billion
2022 gross margins = 41.5%
2022 gross profit = $5.0 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 47.5%

$SE = 29x 2022 EV/GP

$MELI
Current EV = $77.9 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $8.7 billion
2022 gross margins = 41.7%
2022 gross profit = $3.63 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 37.6%

$MELI = 21.5x 2022 EV/GP

$ETSY
Current EV = $23.5 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $2.7 billion
2022 gross margins = 74.2%
2022 gross profit = $2.0 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 18.3%

$ETSY = 11.8x 2022 EV/GP

$FTCH
Current EV = $17.5 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $2.86 billion
2022 gross margins = 47.6%
2022 gross profit = $1.36 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 27.7%

$FTCH = 12.9x 2022 EV/GP

$OZON
Current EV = $9.9 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $3.73 billion
2022 gross margins = 40.9%
2022 gross profit = $1.53 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 61.2%

$OZON = 6.5x 2022 EV/GP

$BABA
Current EV = $510 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $170 billion
2022 gross margins = 40%
2022 gross profit = $68 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 20.9%

$BABA = 7.5x 2022 EV/GP

$PDD
Current EV = $104 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $24.3 billion
2022 gross margins = 58.1%
2022 gross profit = $14.1 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 37.1%

$PDD = 7.4x 2022 EV/GP

$JD
Current EV = $100 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $179.4 billion
2022 gross margins = 14.9%
2022 gross profit = $26.7 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 22.2%

$JD = 3.7x 2022 EV/GP

$W
Current EV = $27 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $19 billion
2022 gross margins = 28.3%
2022 gross profit = $5.4 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 20.1%

$W = 5x 2022 EV/GP

$EBAY
Current EV = $51 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $12.8 billion
2022 gross margins = 73%
2022 gross profit = $9.34 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 6.3%

$EBAY = 5.5x 2022 EV/GP

$WISH
Current EV = $4.6 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $3.8 billion
2022 gross margins = 60.3%
2022 gross profit = $2.3 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth =

$WISH = 2x 2022 EV/GP

The correct 2022 gross profit number for $AMZN is $240 billion

The 7x 2022 EV/GP is correct (technically it's 6.96x but I rounded up)

$CPNG
Current EV = $60 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $26.7 billion
2022 gross margins = 20%
2022 gross profit = $5.34 billion
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 39.3%

$CPNG = 11.2x 2022 EV/GP

$BIGC
Current EV = $4.4 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $243 million
2022 gross margins = 78%
2022 gross profit = $189.5 million
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 22.8%

$BIGC = 23.2x 2022 EV/GP

$JMIA
Current EV = $1.5 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $182 million
2022 gross margins = 74.3%
2022 gross profit = $135.2 million
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 21.3%

$JMIA = 11x 2022 EV/GP

$OSTK
Current EV = $2.5 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $3.2 billion
2022 gross margins = 22.5%
2022 gross profit = $720 million
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 12.1%

$OSTK = 3.5x 2022 EV/GP

$REAL
Current EV = $1.5 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $585.5 million
2022 gross margins = 62.8%
2022 gross profit = $368 million
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 28.3%

$REAL = 4.1x 2022 EV/GP

$POSH
Current EV = $2.4 billion
2022 revenue estimate = $420.9 million
2022 gross margins = 83.9%
2022 gross profit = $353.1 million
2021 > 2022 revenue growth = 28.6%

$REAL = 6.8x 2022 EV/GP