1/ In my podcast about the space business this week the hard part was making the explanation simple without making it dumb. I was reluctant to do the podcast at all for that reason. I have lots of data about X, Y and Z. I tried instead to paint a picture with a very broad brush. Image
2/ "We need dreamers and doers.They don't talk about it. They go do shit. They bend metal. They make machines that make machines when you can't get the part you need. Those kinds of people help everybody else say, 'Okay, well I can create things too.'" joincolossus.com/episodes/51296…
3/ While watching Starship land for the first time people's eyes are going to be bugging out. And eventually somebody will yell, "This thing was just grabbed by a huge mechanical arm. It's going to take off again in two hours!"

This is one (1) Starship landing fin. It's huge! Image
4/ What's the biggest risk for SpaceX? It is financial. They must not run out of cash. One uncertainty: Is there going to be enough demand for launch?” And one of the ways to create enough demand for launch is to be your own demand. And so there's Starlink. There will be others. Image
5/ We need big romantic efforts to inspire people to do things like make less energy intensive X or whatever. We people who really make us think, "Wow, let's do something really amazing. Let's capture carbon." Whatever it is, we need dreamers and most importantly doers. Let's go!
6/ What interests me is: everything everywhere connected by networks easily. Space enables that because it's ubiquitous in terms of its ability to give coverage everywhere. As chips and software and networks become more important, ubiquitous connectivity becomes more important.
7/ Everyone regardless of location having a choice to be connected isn't everyone connected all the time. People who don't have access to networks often have lousy choices. A LEO service serves everyone. That's amazing, but makes the economics hard. But ain't that fun! Let's go!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @trengriffin

31 Jul
1/ "We're social animals. We're supposed to help one another and we can do it in various ways. And there's nothing that helps people more than helping them get rid of a wrong idea and replacing it with the right one."
2/ "I've never known anybody in a long life who liked criticism. Zero. So I'm sure Warren didn't like criticism. He taught a course on investments at the University of Omaha. And in that course, he criticized certain common practice in the over the counter securities market."
3/ "Banks were selling stock in utilities with a hidden 5% markup. Warren talked about this practice in his university course and some of the people doing it hated him. So he got private criticism. People tried to keep him out of clubs and stuff like that."
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
For decades businesses assumed that as a contractor the amount of product demanded wouldn't go up if price dropped.

A new generation of entrepreneurs threw out that assumption. We are just now finding out what low cost access to space enables. There's optionality in this shift.
Imagine what a trip to a grocery store would cost if every time you did if the car or bus fell into the ocean and was lost forever.

That was just one assumption that the new generation of entrepreneurs changed. When rocket boosters or an entire rocket lands, that's impressive!
If you combine the natural interest that humans have for outer space with putting people and objects in a massive bomb with a nozzle on one end, it produces a lot of excitement.

Also exciting is not knowing if a business will be a success. A not boring business is more fun.
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul
1/ This is a tragedy for many family farms in Washington state.

"The heat scorched and ruined 30 to 40% of this season’s raspberry crop, which supplies 80% of North America’s processed raspberry supply, which is typically 65 million pounds of the sweet red berries."
2/ Many clams and oysters also died from the heat. That and other factors have created pricing pressure: bloombergquint.com/amp/business/n… I'm making clam chowder tho:
3/ "The price of clams, often called steamers, is prone to fluctuation, but Rozes said this summer's spike is the worst he has seen in 45 years. He said last week a gallon of clams would go for $225 — $75 more than the highest price he’ll pay." msn.com/en-us/money/co…
Read 4 tweets
25 Jul
Michael Mauboussin:

“Companies generating high economic returns will attract competitors willing to take a lesser, albeit still attractive return, which will drive aggregate industry returns to opportunity cost of capital.”

Bob Marley:

"No moat, you cry."
2/ A story about identifying moats.

X asked Mozart how to write a symphony.

Mozart: "You are too young to write a symphony.”

X: "You were writing symphonies when you were 10 years of age, and I am 21.”

Mozart: "Yes, but I didn’t run around asking people how to do it.”
3/ Everyone has the idea of owning great companies. The problem: they have high prices in relation to free cash flow.

"That takes all of the fun out of the game. If all you needed to do is to figure out what company is better than others, everyone would make a lot of money."
Read 6 tweets
24 Jul
1/ The $4.25 billion Europa Clipper will launch on SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket, NASA officials announced July 23. The total value of the contract is ~$178 million. space.com/nasa-picks-spa…

Europa Clipper has a mass of ~ 6,000 kilograms.

$178 million / 6000 = $29,000 a kilogram
2/ "The White House estimated that the original plan to launch on a SLS rocket would cost more than $2 billion for the Clipper mission. Scientists were also concerned that the oft-delayed SLS rocket would simply not be ready for a 2024 launch date." arstechnica.com/science/2021/0…
3/ The best way to compare rocket launch costs apples to apples is on a cost per kilogram basis.

Pretend the extra $1 Billion isn't required to stop the shaking of the SLS from wrecking the Europa Clipper spacecraft.

$2 billion/ 6,000 kilograms is $333,333 a kilogram.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jul
Recent poor performance isn't indicative of better future performance. marketwatch.com/story/grantham…

Just say "no" to macro forecasting!
GMO is defensive here about their recent performance: gmo.com/americas/resea…

They're too focused on GAAP earnings and not sufficiently focused on cash flow and intangible assets.
"Jeremy Grantham’s firm expects investments to lose money in 10 of 11 asset classes over the next seven years. Emerging-market value stocks are the lone asset class GMO expects to have a positive return over the next seven years."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(