Perspective: Here's the most revealing set of graphs I've seen in a long time. The UK's latest surge started about 33 days before the surge here in the US. 1/thread of 5
If the US case trend follows that of the UK, we'll have more than 200,000 cases a day by early September, possibly many more. See how the lines on the right are almost perfectly parallel. 2/5 
What was somewhat reassuring is the relatively modest increase in the UK hospitalization rate. This suggests that because of the UK's very high rate of vaccination of seniors, the proportion of infections that are life-threatening is much lower. 3/5
But now look how US vs UK hospitalizations diverge. Keep in mind
1. The US surge started a bit over a month after the UK surge.
2. The US surge is likely to get much worse.
3. These are numbers not rates
With so many unvaccinated, this surge will be MUCH deadlier in the US. 4/5
1. The US surge started a bit over a month after the UK surge.
2. The US surge is likely to get much worse.
3. These are numbers not rates
With so many unvaccinated, this surge will be MUCH deadlier in the US. 4/5
But to end this thread with some good news: For reasons no one really understands, the UK rates recently plummeted. Could the US rate plummet if the surge was driven by the July 4 holiday, or if we mask up, or if we increase vaccination? Time will tell. We can decide.
5/end
5/end
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