Who is Lautaro Martinez? Here's a breakdown of his numbers at Inter, and how he compares to other notable strikers linked with the club this summer. (1/x)
Put it simply: The 23-year-old Argentine is good. Lautaro played a key role ending Juventus' reign this season and leading Inter to the Scudetto, with 17 G and 6 A for a club that also included Romelu Lukaku and his 35 G/A. He was key in their run to the UEL finals last year.
A couple of solid comps for Lautaro: Alvaro Morata and Gabriel Jesus. They all finished at around the same skill level last season, all put solid pressure on the ball, Lautaro lags a bit as a playmaker/creator.
One of Lautaro's strengths is his 1-on-1 play. I like him on the ball, a scrappy type with the ability to beat his man. Here's how he stacks up statistically with his comps (Morata/Jesus) and Arsenal's current talent. You can see he too prone to miscontrolling the ball.
One of Lautaro's strengths is his ability to press the ball like a machine. Here you can see he would be an upgrade on Auba in this area. Arsenal do already have a great pressing striker in Lacazette.
I don't have a statistic for this, but I could see Lautaro as a good fit for the Ben White style of long pass, running in behind the defense early in the attack.
I do think Lautaro's passing could be better, but he'd be an upgrade over Auba or Laca. Key Passes, shots created both better than Arsenal's current strikers. Devil's advocate in me wonders how not having Lukaku around would change things. 3 of his 6 A were to the big fella.
The other thing I'd say: I think he could be a better finisher. He scores some spectacular goals, but he misses some relatively easy ones, too. In about 2.5 seasons at Inter, he's a slightly-below-average finisher, mathematically speaking. 38% shots on target, Auba is 44% career
Here's an important comparison in my book. Tammy Abraham's numbers from 19-20 were remarkable in terms of being a pure scorer. Lautaro brings a bit more creativity and defensive mettle. Of course, this is Premier League vs. Serie A, so digest responsibly.
Is the above difference worth £25 million or more? That's a big decision to make. The other thing that bugs me, besides the massive cost in the face of other needs: Why would Lautaro sign for Arsenal? It's a huge club, but he's played huge European games the past two yrs.
I also wonder what this move would mean for Aubameyang short term, with two years left at huge wages. Would he play off the left? Would he play together with Lautaro, a la Lukaku at Inter? I really don't know how (or if) they fit. Of couse, Laca would have to go.
Perhaps it really is just about making the most money possible. In which case, Arsenal could be a good move for him. But this is one of those (very exciting) links that should be read with a healthy grain of salt until we've see the (leaked) signing photo.

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More from @adamvoge

30 Jul
The Xhaka situation is tough. I don't think he wants to be here anymore, and Arsenal must know they can upgrade. He can be of use in the right situation, but I don't think he's a natural fit in this system. His deficiencies make him a pretty easy target for frustrated fans. Image
You can dislike Xhaka for his personality and his capacity for blunders matched by only David Luiz on last yr's squad, but you really can't doubt his leadership, grit or commitment. Xhaka, Holding and Saka were the only Arsenal players >70 percent of Arsenal's minutes in the PL.
Among those three, Arsenal had the best xG +/- with Xhaka by far. They were +0.48 per 90 minutes with him on the pitch, vs. 0.28 with Saka or 0.15 with Holding. Only ESR outranked Xhaka in team xG +/- per 90 among squad regulars.
Read 13 tweets
29 Jul
Back in mid-June, for @LeGrove I picked out Bruno Guimaraes, the 23-yo Brazilian currently at Lyon, as a good buy for Arsenal's midfield. Article here: le-grove.co.uk/2021/06/15/dat…

More about why I like him as a potential fit:
Ligue 1 and everything, but Bruno checks all my personal boxes. Here's his radar compared to Granit Xhaka and the two most concrete CM links out there, Bissouma and Neves. Look at all that green! 🤯
Here's how those four compare in some key passing metrics, per 90 mins from last season. Bruno is an active shot creator and goal creator. He passes a lot into the penalty area. His xGChain and xGBuildup speak more to his contribution pre-assist, and in both cases he rates well.
Read 5 tweets
29 Jul
OK everyone, we need to talk about Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. I call this one "Why Auba can't be as far off as he was last season..." (1/x)
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had a poor 2020-2021 Premier League season. He scored 10 goals in the league, two from penalties. Unlucky? Ted Lasso might call it "New York Jets."

Perspective: Auba scored 10 for Arsenal in 2018...in 12 gms.
What happened?! For one, his shooting dropped off. Auba hit the target with 33.9 percent of his shots in PL play and was 36.9 pct in all comps. Auba is a career 44.2 percent shooter.

2020-2021 was also the first domestic campaign Auba failed to hit at least one SoT/90, (0.73).
Read 15 tweets
27 Jul
A number of folks asked for Aouar vs. Maddison vs. Odegaard today. I don't have time for a full thread but here are some charts I'm sure you'll use responsibly...

Warnings: Ligue 1 tax! Odegaard at Arsenal small sample size!
1. Ball Carrying. Aouar has covered the most distance carrying, is he starting deeper? Dribbles are Aouar's huge advantage, although MØ had a big season in that area at Sociedad, where his success rate was also very high. All three pretty consistent.
Passing! This is a lot in one chart, but:
-Huge spike for Aouar last year in most areas. He's either fully blooming or last year is an outlier. Odegaard most voluminous passing into the penalty area. Maddison making the KPs and creating shots.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jul
OK, lots of interest in the Odegaard thread from earlier, so...let's make it head-to-head! (1/x)...
I noted that Arsenal recorded 1.89 points per match in Odegaard's 9 starts.

In the Prem, Maddison has 88 starts the past three seasons. Leicester have recorded 140 points in those matches. = 1.59 per.

Without JM? 26 matches, 40 points. =1.54 points per.
Next, key passes! Going pace-based here, but keep in mind Maddison has a LOT more appearances in the Prem. MØ's pace last year would have put him between 60-70 KPs. Maddison's last three years:
52
84
95
Read 9 tweets
27 Jul
Should #Arsenal sign Martin Odegaard? A quick statistical detour...
No causation/correlation line here, but MØ was undoubtedly part of the turnaround. The club registered 17 points in his 9 PL starts, 1.89 per. Arsenal put up 44 points in its other 29 matches, 1.51 per match.

The latter pace would have gotten them 11th over a full season.
Odegaard's league starts included wins over Leeds, Tottenham and Chelsea, but he did also start the 0-3 drubbing to Liverpool (Xhaka, Luiz and Saka all missed) and the 1-1 draw to Burnley, one of Arsenal's worst finishing performances of the season.
Read 12 tweets

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