Interesting. There's a bigger trend line difference between the % of people vaccinated based on *total doses administered* (left) and those *fully vaccinated* (right) by state than I had expected. 1/
The graph on the left (which I use for my daily state-level tracking) is based on total doses divided by 2x pop. (w/J&J counting twice).

The graph on the right only counts people fully vaxxed (either 2 Pfizer/Moderna or 1 J&J); this is what I use for *county-level* tracking. 2/
Since the graph on the right doesn't include those who've only had their 1st dose, it makes sense that every state will be somewhat lower. What surprised me is that there's such a wide difference in *how much* lower some states are than others. 3/
Here's what it looks like for every state. The District of Columbia has BY FAR the biggest gap between residents who've gotten both shots & those who've only gotten their 1st shot (11.4%).

Michigan has the smallest gap (1.9%).

I'm not sure what this means, to be honest.
A negative interpretation would be that DC residents are far more likely to skip the 2nd shot than actual states, which would mean they have a high % of residents running around only half-vaxxed.
A *positive* interpretation would be that there was a big surge in people getting 1st shots in DC about 3 weeks ago, which would mean another big surge of 2nd shots is due over the next week or so.

I haven't been tracking the 1st-shot only data over time, however, so I dunno.
In any event, this particular measurement doesn't seem to have any particular partisan connection, at least at the state level.

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More from @charles_gaba

2 Aug
I remember when Dem KY-SOS Alison Grimes was running against Mitch McConnell for Senate and repeatedly refused to admit that she had voted for Obama in 2008 or 2012 citing the same "voting is private" excuse. It...did not work out well for her.
In this case it's the opposite--Turner is refusing to admit that she DIDN'T vote for the Democratic Presidential nominee. The problem is that Grimes was running against a Republican in a heavily red state, while Turner is running against a Democrat in a heavily blue district.
What was stupid about Grimes' refusal to answer is that she's CLEARLY a long-time, loyal party Democrat, who even boasted about being a delegate for Hillary Clinton (who, of course, was Obama's own SOS and quite chummy with him by 2014). It wasn't exactly the mystery of the ages.
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
This pie chart also helps explain the rise of Trumpism, xenophobia, White Supremacy and so forth nationally: White people will no longer be the majority of the population within a decade or two and many of them aren’t taking it well, to put it mildly.
By 2027, less than 50% of all minors will be White. By 2045 less than 50% of the total U.S. population will be.

They’ll still be the largest PLURALITY for decades more to come, but they’re freaking out about it.
When one group systematically treats other groups like shit for hundreds of years they assume that the other groups would do the same in return if their positions were reversed. I’m pretty sure most BIPOC don’t want revenge, they just want White folks to stop being assholes.
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
My wife and I decided to start watching “Farscape” on Amazon Prime this evening. I had heard of the show but knew absolutely nothing about it other than it being some sort of sci-fi series. I vaguely remembered the promos making it seem a little like Babylon 5 or similar. 1/
Anyway, the pilot episode started off pretty cheesy, but about halfway through I commented to my wife that some of the alien characters reminded me a lot of The Dark Crystal characters…they seemed very “Jim Henson-like”. 2/
Then, near the end of the pilot when it became clear that the premise was a half-dozen assorted alien species including one human dude, mostly escaped prisoners, thrown together and on the run from the authorities I commented that it felt vaguely Guardians of the Galaxy-ish. 3/
Read 8 tweets
31 Jul
⚠️ UPDATED/CORRECTED w/explanation: Has the GOP's sudden vaccination 180º lit a fire under the asses of BLUE counties? Well...maybe:
acasignups.net/21/07/31/has-g…
Last night I posted a new analysis which drew a pretty eye-opening conclusion. Just moments after doing so I realized that I had made two major screw-ups in my methodology: One on timing (I should've waited a few more weeks), the other on...well, read to the end to find out.
I immediately pulled the piece, deleted the tweet link and issued an apology until I could straighten out my mistakes and explain the correction this morning. Kicking myself on both counts, but it should serve as a teachable moment about being careful with data analysis.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
Since July 1st, new COVID cases are running 50% higher per capita in red counties & deaths are running 62% higher per capita in red counties.

Due to them not releasing county-level data:
--Case rates don't include Nebraska;
--Death rates don't include Nebraska *or Florida*. Image
Nebraska stopped releasing county-level data as of June 30th (at least they announced it publicly).

Florida stopped releasing county-level *death* data around the same time...seemingly without any announcement. They just sort of...stopped doing so.
If anyone has current COUNTY-level case/death data for Nebraska *or* COUNTY-level death data for Florida, please let me know!

Some individual county websites have this info but most likely don't, and it'd be a painstaking process to track it all down even if they did.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
Thanks, Congressman. I should note that I've also run the county-level vaccination rates via several non-political metrics...NONE of which has nearly as high a correlation as who people voted for in the 2020 Presidential election: 1/
I plugged in median household income levels (as of 2019) and education levels (% of adults w/a bachelor's degree or higher, 2015 - 2019). Yes, there's a correlation between each...but neither one is as strong as "% of 2020 vote for Donald Trump": 2/
acasignups.net/21/07/29/vacci…
I also plugged in every county's *population density* as well as their *urban/rural* status...and, surprisingly to me, found a very WEAK correlation: 3/ acasignups.net/21/07/28/how-m…
Read 5 tweets

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