Thread by @rhizomyx

President Kais Saied is tackling a key issue all governments have failed to address: Phosphate production in #Tunisia. Social unrest is often blamed for shutdown of phosphate production and the role of corruption in disrupting phosphate production is often overlooked.

Before the revolution in 2011, #Tunisia was one of the world's top exporters of phosphate. The country's now importing phosphate.

Protests aimed at a fairer distribution of phosphate export revenue to the local population have indeed disrupted production. The revolution of 2011

can actually be placed on a continuum originating in the 2006 uprising in phosphate-rich #Gafsa. But beyond these legitimate grievances which have yet to be addressed, high-scale corruption is also to blame.

One of the key players in this dossier is the Tahya Tounes MP Lotfi Ali

Soon after the 25th of July, unconfirmed rumours started to circulate about the arrest of this MP. If he hasn't been arrested, President Saied is certainly going to make a move against him soon. He mentioned him - without naming him - in two videos since the 25th.

Lotfi Ali is in the transport business. The problem is that transport of phosphate is normally done by rail through a state-owned company, while Lotfi Ali has a fleet of trucks. Ali is being accused of having sabotaged the railroad repeatedly, destroying rails to

bully the phosphates company into requiring his road transport services. Sabotage is not his only method. Bribery and corruption too. He was deeply entrenched in politics. He funded President Caid Essebsi's Nidaa party which nominated him as MP.

By the end of the previous legislature, when the tide was turning against Caid Essebsi, Lotfi Ali played a key role in enabling the rise of Tahya Tounes, a Nidaa offshoot led by the then-PM Youssef Chahed.

Chahed had gained popularity by launching a "war on corruption"

He used the military tribunal to prosecute and arrest Chafik Jarraya, one of Nidaa's key donors who is involved in smuggling. But it quickly became clear that Chahed's war on corruption only targeted his political foes. When he founded Tahya Tounes, he enlisted some of

Tunisia's most corrupt businessmen/politicians, including Lotfi Ali but also smuggling baron Kamel Hamzaoui from Kasserine. They are now MPs for Tahya Tounes, they barely set foot in parliament but nonetheless enjoyed immunity until Saied took it away.

These people's track-record may partly explain why most Tunisians see parliament as a failed institution and a refuge for the most corrupt, and why people have welcomed the lifting of parliamentary immunity. Parties offered nomination (therefore immunity) to organised crime lords

Saied is expected to move against Lotfi Ali very soon. The national company has already re-started shipping phosphate by rail and Saied has hinted at a return to full production. This might be seen as a positive signal by international financial institutions.

Tunisia has been losing about USD 1 billion annually due to disruptions to phosphate production.

The question is how far is Saied's war on corruption will reach? It is very reminiscent of Chahed's: same reliance on military justice, same rhetoric, same popular relief. But will this be a comprehensive and indiscriminate war on corruption or will he be content with eliminating

those who stand against him? He already proposed a way to deal with pre-2011 corruption (corrupt buisnesspeople to fund infrastructure in marginalised areas or be prosecuted), but it is unclear how he will deal with post-2011 corruption which isn't smaller in scale.

Anyway if you're interested in Saied's rhetoric on this topic, you can find his latest video here. He addresses a young anti-corruption activist from Gafsa who also contributed to his electoral campaign. facebook.com/27117857294020…