I’ll be ranking the prospects of the players starting using the follow metrics, from highest chance of playing (✅), to clear avoids (❌)…
✅ Likely
👀 Watch
😕 Unlikely
❌ Avoid
Amartey (LEI) 🦊
Evans is currently injured and expected to spend some weeks on the sidelines. The only way Amartey can start is if Rodgers opts for a back 5, where Amartey will likely be the one to slot in at CB.
Verdict: Watch 👀
Bardsley (BUR) 🍷
At 36 years old, he’s clear second choice RB behind Lowton. Won’t play unless someone gets injured
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Davies (LIV) 🔴
Probably 6th or 7th choice CB at Liverpool. Won’t be getting minutes anytime soon, even if Liverpool have another injury crisis
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Duffy (BRI) 🕊
Despite White’s departure, Duffy is still is unlikely to feature. Many Brighton fans believe Ostigard will be one to step up instead, and with the likes of Veltman and Burn also being able to play CB, Duffy’s chances aren’t good
Verdict: Unlikely 😕
Goode (BRE) 🐝
Has played in 4/4 preseason games so far. New signing Ajer has only played 45 mins this preseason, with fellow CB Jansson on 0 mins. Goode hasn’t missed a day’s training since March… could get rewarded with some starts early on
Verdict: Watch 👀
Hoever (WOL) 🐺
After Semedo’s poor showing at the Euros, I still think he comes back to Wolves as first choice RB. Hoever likely to be backup there.
Verdict: Unlikely 😕
Johnson (WHU) ⚒️
With Masuaku still not fit, Johnson could get some starts, but only if Moyes plays a back 5 (where Cresswell will likely move to LCB). He played a back 5 in a recent friendly v Brentford, so it’s very possible.
Verdict: Watch 👀
Kelly (CRY) 🦅
Played a total of 2 minutes last season. That’s all we need to know
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Livramento (SOU) 🔴⚪️
Southampton’s newest signing and Chelsea’s academy player of the year. He’s a RB/RM by trade, so displacing KWP or Armstrong in either position straight away is a longshot, but definitely one to watch for later in the season
Verdict: Watch 👀
Long (BUR) 🍷
With Collin back from loan, Long is likely now 4th choice CB. Won’t see minutes unless Mee or Tarkowski leave this transfer window. Also, currently not fit.
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Manquillo (NEW) 🔲
The highest owned £4m defender for not much good. Murphy appeared to have just signed a long term contract, so Manquillo’s chances of displacing him as #1 RWB appear even slimmer. Occasional rotation seems the most likely outcome.
Verdict: Unlikely 😕
N.Williams (LIV) 🔴
Being second choice RB, Liverpool are reluctant to let him go in the chances of a Trent injury, despite the loan transfer rumours. No chance of any game time if he stays.
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Navarro (WAT) 🟡
Squad role is as a backup RB. Despite Kiko currently being injured, Navarro hasn’t had any pre season minutes so his chances of starting appear slim
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Omobamidele (NOR) 🔰
Played the most pre-season minutes for Norwich, starting 3/3 so far. Also started the last 8 games in the championship, displacing Zimmerman. Gibson and Hanley currently not fit and have 0 preseason minutes… looks good for Omo to start
Verdict: Likely ✅
Pollock (WAT) 🟡
From league 2, simply not at PL standard yet
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Reid (WHU) ⚒️
No preseason minutes so far, prospects don’t look good for a start
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Tsimikas (LIV) 🔴
Robertson’s backup. Similar situation to Neco Williams, won’t see any starts at Liverpool unless his superior is injured
Verdict: Avoid ❌
B.Williams (NOR) 🔰
Reports say he’s secured a loan deal at Norwich. With likely #1 LB Giannoulis currently nursing a hamstring strain, Williams may have to step in straight away and start in GW1. He should be ready after a full pre-season at United.
Verdict: Watch 👀
To summarise, here are the £4m defenders I think have the highest chance of getting minutes early on in the season
Update: Giannoulis is now back from injury after starting today’s pre season game. Reduces the likelihood of Williams getting a start early in the season.
Still one to watch for the long term though 👀
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All stats are from the 2020/21 Championship & Bundesliga seasons and in the format ‘per 90 mins’
Heatmaps: very close one. Buendia has some good central positioning, whereas Bailey has more presence in the box. I think this slightly favours Bailey 🇯🇲🔥
🇦🇷Buendia v Bailey🇯🇲
Goals: 0.39 v 0.3 🇦🇷
xG: 0.30 v 0.2 🇦🇷
Shots: 2.86 v 1.93 🇦🇷
SoT: 0.93 v 0.84 🇦🇷
Conversion rate: 14% v 16% 🇯🇲
Big chances missed: 0.26 v 0.16 🇦🇷
Assists: 0.41 v 0.32 🇦🇷
xA: 0.32 v 0.24 🇦🇷
Chances created: 3.54 v 2.24 🇦🇷
BCC: 0.46 v 0.32 🇦🇷