I’ll be rating the prospects of the £4.5 MIDs & FWDs using the following metric, factoring in both NAILEDNESS and ATTACKING POTENTIAL
✅ Quality
🤝 Safe
👀 One to watch
❌ Avoid
After evaluating each player, I’ll summarise by ranking the best options at the end 🥈🥇🥉
Let’s get started… first we analyse all the midfielders 👀
⬇️ £4.5m MIDFIELDERS ⬇️
Allan (EVE) 🍬
An integral part of Everton’s midfield, but more on the defensive side. 0 attacking returns last season from 2 SoT and 16 chances created, along with a booking every 4 games
Verdict: Safe 🤝
Baah (WAT) 🟡
At just 18, he’s come from playing in league 1 last season to the PL this season. Don’t expect many starts at all
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Bidstrup (BRE) 🐝
Another young talent that isn’t likely to get consistent starts
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Bissouma (BRI) 🕊
The highest owned £4.5 MID. Completely nailed on, but only managed just 1 attacking return last season from 3 SoT and 16 chances created which is slightly underwhelming. Also got booked in 1 every 4 games, which is far from ideal
Verdict: Safe 🤝
Brownhill (BUR)🍷
Played very advanced roles as SS and RM at the back of last season. Also managed a brace in a recent pre season friendly. He may go back to CM to start the season, but the possibility of moving into more advanced roles is a plus. Nailed on.
Verdict: Quality ✅
Choudhury (LEI) 🦊
Will find it hard to get minutes, Leicester already have too much quality in midfield
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Cork (BUR) 🍷
Not really nailed on these days, and offers nothing going forward
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Dele-Bashiru 🟡
No, not related to Dele Alli. Likely won’t play, so we can ignore
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Delph (EVE) 🍬
Won’t do much apart from the occasional sub appearance and participation in cup games
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Diallo (SOU) 😇
Unfortunately has too much competition to start in midfield on a consistent basis. Gets a lot of sub appearances, and not the most attacking player
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Douglas Luiz (AVL) 🦁
Posted decent stats last season for a DM, with 0G, 2A from 8 SoT and 21 chances created, but he’s played Copa America AND the Olympics so unlikely to start the first few weeks of the season
Verdict: One to watch 👀
Elneny (ARS) 🔴
With Xhaka now staying at Arsenal, Elneny’s hopes of being a consistent starter have been slashed. However, Partey’s injury may mean he steps in for the first few weeks. Though still not attacking enough to consider over this brief period
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Etebo (WAT) 🟡
A defensive mid signed on loan who won’t offer much going forward. Unlikely to be a consistent starter.
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Gibbs-White (WOL) 🐺
Very versatile and able to play anywhere in the attack, from AM to the wing. He’s played in 5/5 pre season games so far, managing 1G, 1A. With Neto and Podence out, he looks good to start the beginning of the season
Verdict: Quality ✅
Gilmour (NOR) 🔰
Expect him to slot in at CM in a 4231 and start most games for Norwich. Coming from Chelsea, he has plenty of hype around him. Likely to play a deep lying playmaker role
Verdict: Quality ✅
Hayden (NEW) 🔲
No attacking returns from 2 SoT and 7 chances created last season. In the 2 prior seasons he had 3 and 5 attacking returns respectively. We need to see more of that for him to be a standout option
Verdict: Safe 🤝
Hungbo (WAT) 🟡
Another 4.5 Watford midfielder with lack of FPL appeal
Verdict: Avoid ❌
M.Longstaff (NEW) 🔲
The younger of the Longstaff’s, there’s no appeal here as he only had 4 starts last season. Wouldn’t expect too many more this season
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Matic (MUN) 😈
The veteran Matic is getting on in age, and won’t be starting very often this season
Verdict: Avoid ❌
McArthur (CRY) 🦅
Averaged 1 chance created every game he played last season and managed 2 assists in his 17 games before his season ending injury. Unexpectedly some decent stats, but consider he is now 33 years old.
Verdict: Safe 🤝
Mendy (LEI) 🦊
Currently not fit. Has some work to do if he wants to break into that Leicester midfield
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Moder (BRI) 🕊
Played majority of his games at LWB last season where he stepped in for an injured Solly March. Seems unlikely to be a starter now that March is back.
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Nakamba (AVL) 🦁
Will probably fill in while Doughlas Luiz gets his well earned rest. Still a lack of appeal as he offers no real attacking threat
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Noble (WHU) ⚒️
Mr West Ham is still going strong. Despite having penalties in his locker, his lack of starts makes him a non option
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Otasowie (WOL) 🐺
A young talent that likely won’t get many minutes this season
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Poveda (LEE) ⚪️
14 appearances last season, all as a substitute. Not what we want for an FPL asset
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Quina (WAT) 🟡
Another Watford MID, but this one says he wants to be “starting every game”. 2 goals from his limited 5 starts last season in La Liga isn’t a bad record. If he can nail down a spot he could be one for the WC team later on
Verdict: One to watch 👀
Ramsey (AVL) 🦁
Had to step in a number of times last season due to injuries in the Villa team, but with all the new signings it may be difficult for Ramsey to nail down a spot anytime soon
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Romeu (SOU) 😇
2 attacking returns from 4 SoT and 15 chances created from 21 appearances before his season ending injury. Somewhat decent for a defensive midfielder, and pretty much nailed on
Verdict: Safe 🤝
Rupp (NOR) 🔰
Can play a variety of positions including RM, AM and DM, but needs to nail down a place first before we can consider. If he can nail down a spot in the front 4 then he could be one for the WC teams once fixtures improve
Verdict: One to watch 👀
S.Longstaff (NEW) 🔲
The senior of Longstaff’s. But just because he’s the senior doesn’t make him an FPL option. Not nailed on, and attacking potential isn’t special
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Shackleton (LEE) ⚪️
Stepped in a few times last season due to some injuries at Leeds, but wouldn’t expect him to be a starter this season
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Sissoko (TOT) 🐓
Appears that he’s no longer in the strongest XI for Spurs since the signing of Højbjerg. Don’t think new Spurs manager Nuno will think otherwise
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Skipp (TOT) 🐓
Better chance of starting than Sissoko, but there’s simply too much competition with the likes of Ndombele and Winks able to play alongside Højbjerg
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Smallbone (SOU) 😇
Injured a smallbone in his knee or something like that. Even if fit, he’s not going to be a starter
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Stephens (BUR) 🍷
Feels like he’s been a £4.5 fodder since forever. Not worth any consideration.
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Torreira (ARS) 🔴
Has been wanting a permanent move away from Arsenal for a while now. Rightfully so, because he’s unlikely to be a regular starter for them once again this season
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Winks (TOT) 🐓
Same situation as Skipp. Too much competition to nail down a spot and doesn’t get forward much
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Zamburek (BRE) 🐝
Unlikely to play. Not worth any consideration
Verdict: Avoid ❌
That’s the midfielders done ‼️
Let’s summarise by ranking the best options
🥇Brownhill
🥈Gibbs-White
🥉Gilmour
Despite Gibbs-White having the most attacking potential, he may not be nailed long term. Pick him if you have a higher risk tolerance, otherwise go Brownhill ✅
Now let’s move on to the forwards 👀 (don’t worry there’s only 4 of them)
⬇️ £4.5m FORWARDS ⬇️
Davis (AVL) 🦁
Currently the highest owned, despite being the 5 minute cameo king at Villa. Managed 1G, 1A from his limited game time. With Ings now coming in, he clearly won’t be starting once again
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Mebude (WAT) 🟡
Gone on loan. Now we only have 3 £4.5m forwards to choose from…
Verdict: Avoid ❌
Obafemi (SOU) 😇
With Ings departing, it opens up an opportunity for Obafemi. He’ll have some competition in Long and Tella, but he’s sure to get his chance and possibly even nail down a starting spot if he impresses
Verdict: Quality ✅
Perica (WAT) 🟡
Watford have 10 attackers on FPL, and I can tell you Perica won’t be one of the lucky ones to get a start. Rumours circulating that Watford want him sold.
Verdict: Avoid ❌
In summary, Obafemi has to be your man here🥇
The £4.5m forwards are generally not promising this year, but Obafemi gives us the hope we’ve been looking for (thank you Danny Ings) 🙌
And that’s the end of this very long thread 🪡
If you’ve found some use from the thread, please feel free to share and help it reach the wider FPL community ❤️♻️
All stats are from the 2020/21 Championship & Bundesliga seasons and in the format ‘per 90 mins’
Heatmaps: very close one. Buendia has some good central positioning, whereas Bailey has more presence in the box. I think this slightly favours Bailey 🇯🇲🔥
🇦🇷Buendia v Bailey🇯🇲
Goals: 0.39 v 0.3 🇦🇷
xG: 0.30 v 0.2 🇦🇷
Shots: 2.86 v 1.93 🇦🇷
SoT: 0.93 v 0.84 🇦🇷
Conversion rate: 14% v 16% 🇯🇲
Big chances missed: 0.26 v 0.16 🇦🇷
Assists: 0.41 v 0.32 🇦🇷
xA: 0.32 v 0.24 🇦🇷
Chances created: 3.54 v 2.24 🇦🇷
BCC: 0.46 v 0.32 🇦🇷
I’ll be ranking the prospects of the players starting using the follow metrics, from highest chance of playing (✅), to clear avoids (❌)…
✅ Likely
👀 Watch
😕 Unlikely
❌ Avoid
Amartey (LEI) 🦊
Evans is currently injured and expected to spend some weeks on the sidelines. The only way Amartey can start is if Rodgers opts for a back 5, where Amartey will likely be the one to slot in at CB.