Summary Delta breakthrough studies, Ct/viral load, vaccine effectiveness (VE)
Only 1 large study of Ct/viral load, shows some vaccine reduction
VE ranges 39-88%; it's likely ≤ 60% at best for mRNA
More data needed, but points to need for boosters for at least some people
Only 1 large study of Ct/viral load, shows some vaccine reduction
VE ranges 39-88%; it's likely ≤ 60% at best for mRNA
More data needed, but points to need for boosters for at least some people
Overall, these findings certainly are concordant w/ increased Delta breakthrough symptomatic infections we're seeing and a major decline in protection (~95% w/ mRNA) compared with previous strains, as reviewed here
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1422644921740136456
Recall that 1-dose mRNA or AZ had little (30%) efficacy (1st study in Table). All of this reflects Delta's immune evasiveness. We're very lucky it's holding up for reduction of hospitalizations/deaths but this🦠is far more formidable for both transmission and our immune response
Other implications for the VE drop vs infections.
For awhile we wondered if the mRNA dosing schedule is Israel (3 weeks) vs UK (8-12 weeks) could account for 39-60% vs 88%, respectively. The new UK study doesn't break down vaccine %, but makes this explanation less likely
For awhile we wondered if the mRNA dosing schedule is Israel (3 weeks) vs UK (8-12 weeks) could account for 39-60% vs 88%, respectively. The new UK study doesn't break down vaccine %, but makes this explanation less likely
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