💰 8 Billion-Dollar Fintech Trends Before 2030 💰
Gary Gensler is out for crypto blood🩸.
Chinese Edtech ADRs are eating Wall Street.
... It's a crazy unpredictable market out there!
Through all this ruckus, here are 8 consumer fintech trends that MUST HAPPEN this decade.
👇
Gary Gensler is out for crypto blood🩸.
Chinese Edtech ADRs are eating Wall Street.
... It's a crazy unpredictable market out there!
Through all this ruckus, here are 8 consumer fintech trends that MUST HAPPEN this decade.
👇
1/ Access to secondary markets
The delineation btw public & private is a Berlin Wall --
Getting torn down from every angle.
It’s not just SPACs & direct listings lowering the barrier to "go public."
Tiger Cap is now pouncing on every 🔥 Silicon Valley deal from seed to seriesF.
The delineation btw public & private is a Berlin Wall --
Getting torn down from every angle.
It’s not just SPACs & direct listings lowering the barrier to "go public."
Tiger Cap is now pouncing on every 🔥 Silicon Valley deal from seed to seriesF.
Retail investors are already demanding pre-IPO access; soon they’ll want to trade Stripe, Ramp, Openstore, etc. long before these companies are ready to go public.
How will retail gain access?
I see 3 ways.
a) Via ETFs containing private underliers
e.g. destiny.xyz
How will retail gain access?
I see 3 ways.
a) Via ETFs containing private underliers
e.g. destiny.xyz
b) By trading synthetics
Available & legal ex-US, ex-China
e.g. To gain exposure to Stripe, an investor would trade tokenized "Stripe-coin" whose value is pegged to a mark-to-market valuation
c) Lastly (and least likely) is if the SEC drops its accredited investor restrictions
Available & legal ex-US, ex-China
e.g. To gain exposure to Stripe, an investor would trade tokenized "Stripe-coin" whose value is pegged to a mark-to-market valuation
c) Lastly (and least likely) is if the SEC drops its accredited investor restrictions
2/ Shorting private companies
"I want to short Stripe"
Pay me a dime every time I hear this & I'll buy u a yacht.
While there's not enough liquidity in early stage (pre- series C), late stage (series D+) is abound w/ folks trying to bet against the Valley's galloping unicorns.
"I want to short Stripe"
Pay me a dime every time I hear this & I'll buy u a yacht.
While there's not enough liquidity in early stage (pre- series C), late stage (series D+) is abound w/ folks trying to bet against the Valley's galloping unicorns.
Parallel to my last point, I see 3 ways to open up this market
a. A short ETF (like SQQQ) w/ private underliers
b. Synthetics (tokenized stocks for ex-US, ex-China)
c. Bespoke OTC settlements (e.g. between a long & a short investor, both accredited, matched by an OTC broker)
a. A short ETF (like SQQQ) w/ private underliers
b. Synthetics (tokenized stocks for ex-US, ex-China)
c. Bespoke OTC settlements (e.g. between a long & a short investor, both accredited, matched by an OTC broker)
3/ Democratization of hedge funds
Q1 '21 set a new record for the most fund launches ever.
Frothy markets➡️ easy access to capital
- PMs are spinning off to start micro funds
- Crypto funds are launching w/ close to no legal friction
- Angel investing syndicates are on the rise
Q1 '21 set a new record for the most fund launches ever.
Frothy markets➡️ easy access to capital
- PMs are spinning off to start micro funds
- Crypto funds are launching w/ close to no legal friction
- Angel investing syndicates are on the rise
Imagine if every PM woke up one day & said "Why do I give up 70% of my returns to the firm each year? I'm going solo."
Now imagine if retail investors could choose & invest capital w/ these experienced PMs (e.g. for 1+10%) instead of Schwab, Fidelity, @Wealthfront, @Betterment.
Now imagine if retail investors could choose & invest capital w/ these experienced PMs (e.g. for 1+10%) instead of Schwab, Fidelity, @Wealthfront, @Betterment.
But what's stopping it from happening today?
Democratization of hedge funds is a 2-sided marketplace problem today, where the first step is to unlock supply (i.e. lower the barriers for solo fund managers to open up shop).
What barriers?
Democratization of hedge funds is a 2-sided marketplace problem today, where the first step is to unlock supply (i.e. lower the barriers for solo fund managers to open up shop).
What barriers?
PMs wanna spend their time on investment strategies, not on LP management.
While tons of admin Saas tools exist for founders (e.g. @clerkyinc for incorporation, @GustoHQ for payroll) nothing for fund managers.
@seema_amble talks about this opportunity 👇
While tons of admin Saas tools exist for founders (e.g. @clerkyinc for incorporation, @GustoHQ for payroll) nothing for fund managers.
@seema_amble talks about this opportunity 👇
https://twitter.com/seema_amble/status/1421532393270251520
4/ Personalized investing
"I want a custom-made portfolio that only includes companies w/ ESG score >85 & I'm willing to pay 2% interest to insure against a 30% drawdown over the next 6 months!"
Personalized medicine is a thing for millennials+GenZ
So is personalized investing.
"I want a custom-made portfolio that only includes companies w/ ESG score >85 & I'm willing to pay 2% interest to insure against a 30% drawdown over the next 6 months!"
Personalized medicine is a thing for millennials+GenZ
So is personalized investing.
Unfortunately, markets today don't have the right tools nor the right building block assets to tailor-design portfolios.
- no such thing as insurance for single portfolios (i.e. no basket options)
- no tweakable indices (e.g. can't drop all oil stocks & add women-led companies)
- no such thing as insurance for single portfolios (i.e. no basket options)
- no tweakable indices (e.g. can't drop all oil stocks & add women-led companies)
- industry labeling is a huge problem (e.g. $TWLO, $DASH & $LMND are all labeled as "internet/tech" but couldn't be more different)
- no standardized scoring for ESG, which needs to be split into E, S, & G because some people care about the E (environment) but not S&G (social)
- no standardized scoring for ESG, which needs to be split into E, S, & G because some people care about the E (environment) but not S&G (social)
5/ Customizable Wage Payment
- Freelancers are demanding payment in Bitcoin, esp. in countries suffering chronic inflation
- (some) SF engineers are converting every paycheck to crypto as soon as the direct deposit settles
- many millennials want *part* of their paycheck in BTC
- Freelancers are demanding payment in Bitcoin, esp. in countries suffering chronic inflation
- (some) SF engineers are converting every paycheck to crypto as soon as the direct deposit settles
- many millennials want *part* of their paycheck in BTC
- Gig workers want on-demand pay (early wage access co's like
@earnin
already solving this)
- Conversely, employees willing to wait more than 2 weeks can help reduce the company's accounts payable & improve cash cycle (for a small kickback comparable to debt/revolver interest)
@earnin
already solving this)
- Conversely, employees willing to wait more than 2 weeks can help reduce the company's accounts payable & improve cash cycle (for a small kickback comparable to debt/revolver interest)
6/ Fractional Real Estate Ownership
i. We should see this market open up for non-accredited mass-market investors (@Yieldstreet & @investwithLEX off to a great start but u have to be accredited to invest)
ii. We should see this open up internationally (e.g. Vietnam, Nairobi)
i. We should see this market open up for non-accredited mass-market investors (@Yieldstreet & @investwithLEX off to a great start but u have to be accredited to invest)
ii. We should see this open up internationally (e.g. Vietnam, Nairobi)
But real estate markets haven't changed in decades.
Why now?
- Millennials are increasingly buying property as investments rather than to live in, esp. post-COVID
- Stock market investors are increasingly skittish & itching to diversify into ex-US and less-correlated assets
Why now?
- Millennials are increasingly buying property as investments rather than to live in, esp. post-COVID
- Stock market investors are increasingly skittish & itching to diversify into ex-US and less-correlated assets
How will infinitely divisible, geographically unconstrained real estate access get solved?
Best solution imo (again) is synthetics.
e.g. @viamirror is a protocol enables the creation of synthetic tokens on chain to reflect any real asset value (and divisibility is automatic)
Best solution imo (again) is synthetics.
e.g. @viamirror is a protocol enables the creation of synthetic tokens on chain to reflect any real asset value (and divisibility is automatic)
REITs have been around in traditional markets for a long time, but they're not customizable, charge high fees (~9%), skew toward commercial properties, embed tenant risk + management risk on top of just the real property risk, etc.
7/ Tax-avoidance Funds for Founders & Tech Employees
IPO sprees➡️ 10,000s of newly minted tech millionaires➡️ taxes! 🇺🇸
"95% of my net worth is in 1 stock. How do I cash out w/out incurring 33% capital gains tax 😱😩?!"
Said every early employee from $COIN $ABNB $RBLX $HOOD ...
IPO sprees➡️ 10,000s of newly minted tech millionaires➡️ taxes! 🇺🇸
"95% of my net worth is in 1 stock. How do I cash out w/out incurring 33% capital gains tax 😱😩?!"
Said every early employee from $COIN $ABNB $RBLX $HOOD ...
There's a huge gap in the market for a tech clientele focused wealth mgmt co.
Engineers represent billions in potential new AUM. Right now that capital doesn't know how to diversify, can't reinvest itself into new early-stage projects without first cashing out to the IRS...
Engineers represent billions in potential new AUM. Right now that capital doesn't know how to diversify, can't reinvest itself into new early-stage projects without first cashing out to the IRS...
Solution:
An exchange fund should pool together all its clients' portfolios--where input from each individual client is highly concentrated--then redistribute output portfolios equal to a fraction of the aggregate index.
This enables diversification without capital gains tax.
An exchange fund should pool together all its clients' portfolios--where input from each individual client is highly concentrated--then redistribute output portfolios equal to a fraction of the aggregate index.
This enables diversification without capital gains tax.
8/ Crypto trading as a service
Millions of traders today want to skirt US/China crypto regulatory restrictions. They want:
- leverage
- tokenized stocks
- derivatives
Conveniently theres a long tail of countries w/ loose to no crypto restrictions & low GDP.
I smell opportunity.
Millions of traders today want to skirt US/China crypto regulatory restrictions. They want:
- leverage
- tokenized stocks
- derivatives
Conveniently theres a long tail of countries w/ loose to no crypto restrictions & low GDP.
I smell opportunity.
Sounds like a "TEaaS" 😂 (trade execution as a service).
e.g. US residents pay Maltese traders to run algo binaries on Maltese rails, satisfy KYC using their own credentials, procure restricted dApps as necessary, scatter profits among a distributed fleet of anon proxy wallets
e.g. US residents pay Maltese traders to run algo binaries on Maltese rails, satisfy KYC using their own credentials, procure restricted dApps as necessary, scatter profits among a distributed fleet of anon proxy wallets
End.
If you enjoyed this, maybe you'd like my other threads on topics like:
- Ransomware's hidden economic machine
- How to decrypt 10Ks
- Jim Simons' trading strategies
Check 'em out here 👇
& follow @FabiusMercurius to keep nerding out on investing 🤓
If you enjoyed this, maybe you'd like my other threads on topics like:
- Ransomware's hidden economic machine
- How to decrypt 10Ks
- Jim Simons' trading strategies
Check 'em out here 👇
& follow @FabiusMercurius to keep nerding out on investing 🤓
https://twitter.com/FabiusMercurius/status/1416550699173773314
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