"Optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny).” 

Define "negative optionality" and give a current example in the news to get full credit for your answer. 25iq.com/2013/10/13/a-d…
2/ Who said: "If you’ve got a low downside and a big upside, you do it. If you’ve got a big downside and a small upside, you run away. The only time you have work to do is when you have a big downside and a big upside.”

Can you name a situation like that in the news right now?
3/ Who said:

“Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that’s what it’s all about.”

What might you apply this idea to in the news now?
4/ Who said:

"Risk is described by both the probability and the potential amount of loss.”

Who said:

"With uncertainty we can identify potential future the states of the world, but not their probabilities.”

What's a situation in the world right now that involves each?
5/ Who said:

“In any probabilistic exercise: the frequency of correctness does not matter; it is the magnitude of correctness that matters."

Can you think of a current situation in the news now where if you make the wrong choice, you are dead? Is death a big downside?

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More from @trengriffin

5 Aug
1/ Starlink Dishy uses a partially mechanical method to reduce cost of a phased array antenna that can handle the elevation angle of the satellites.

A mobile antenna must either use metamaterials like Kymeta's holographic beam forming or be a phased array that costs much more.
2/ If my podcast had dug into topics like a "minimum elevation angle" I would have lost listeners

A beam must be able to send a signal to a visible satellite. When aimed at the horizon, the elevation angle is zero. If directly overhead, 90 degrees.

See ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/108023048…
3/ Without a minimum elevation angle you can't calculate how many people can use a service since that will determine how many sites won't have blockage caused by terrain etc.

The intersection of physics, a business model, total addressable etc., is fun for me. Boring for you!
Read 4 tweets
4 Aug
1/ Michael Dell: "The amount of data being created in the world is just astounding. It’s doubling every seven or eight months." forbes.com/sites/antoineg…
2/ Michael Dell: "If capital is inexpensive and there’s tons of cash on your balance sheet, it’s hard to make your equity more valuable.

If you flip the equation, and say: 'Hey, let’s have a tech company with lots of debt.’ With predictable cash flows, it’s a winning strategy.”
3/ Dell: "Gartner estimates 75% of data will be at the edge within five years. You’re not going to move all that data to the cloud.” Other potential growth markets include telecom equipment such as 5G infrastructure and virtual desktops as companies build hybrid footprints."
Read 4 tweets
3 Aug
1/ Access to two networks "isn't abnormal for an MVNO our size," MVNOs like Red Pocket Mobile and TracFone manage a number of MVNO agreements that allow them to sign up customers to whichever wireless network operator is offering the best wholesale rate." lightreading.com/ossbsscx/dish-…?
2/ Wholesale transfer pricing =  the bargaining power of company A (eg, a service provider) that supplies a unique product X (eg, wholesale wireless service) to Company B (eg DISH) which may enable company A to take the profits of company B by increasing the wholesale price of X.
3/ Prepaid service was accepted by mobile operators as they started to have trouble finding customers who could pass a credit check. A subsidized phone is effectively a loan. Unit economics differ!

"There is a big transference from the prepaid category to the postpaid category."
Read 5 tweets
31 Jul
1/ In my podcast about the space business this week the hard part was making the explanation simple without making it dumb. I was reluctant to do the podcast at all for that reason. I have lots of data about X, Y and Z. I tried instead to paint a picture with a very broad brush. Image
2/ "We need dreamers and doers.They don't talk about it. They go do shit. They bend metal. They make machines that make machines when you can't get the part you need. Those kinds of people help everybody else say, 'Okay, well I can create things too.'" joincolossus.com/episodes/51296…
3/ While watching Starship land for the first time people's eyes are going to be bugging out. And eventually somebody will yell, "This thing was just grabbed by a huge mechanical arm. It's going to take off again in two hours!"

This is one (1) Starship landing fin. It's huge! Image
Read 7 tweets
31 Jul
1/ "We're social animals. We're supposed to help one another and we can do it in various ways. And there's nothing that helps people more than helping them get rid of a wrong idea and replacing it with the right one."
2/ "I've never known anybody in a long life who liked criticism. Zero. So I'm sure Warren didn't like criticism. He taught a course on investments at the University of Omaha. And in that course, he criticized certain common practice in the over the counter securities market."
3/ "Banks were selling stock in utilities with a hidden 5% markup. Warren talked about this practice in his university course and some of the people doing it hated him. So he got private criticism. People tried to keep him out of clubs and stuff like that."
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
For decades businesses assumed that as a contractor the amount of product demanded wouldn't go up if price dropped.

A new generation of entrepreneurs threw out that assumption. We are just now finding out what low cost access to space enables. There's optionality in this shift.
Imagine what a trip to a grocery store would cost if every time you did if the car or bus fell into the ocean and was lost forever.

That was just one assumption that the new generation of entrepreneurs changed. When rocket boosters or an entire rocket lands, that's impressive!
If you combine the natural interest that humans have for outer space with putting people and objects in a massive bomb with a nozzle on one end, it produces a lot of excitement.

Also exciting is not knowing if a business will be a success. A not boring business is more fun.
Read 5 tweets

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