Thread by @mansfieldintinc

1. The fall of Ziranj is significant, perhaps less because it is a provincial centre & more it marks the final official border crossing with Iran to fall to Taliban & a major source of revenue to the govt & it’s allies.
washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/…

2. Official revenue from Ziranj $43.2 million p.a. in duties plus another $50 million in direct taxes. We estimate $176 million p.a. when undeclared goods included. That is as much as $83 mill p.a to share amongst “friends” - part of the glue that held the Republic together?

3. Official trade stats indicate Taliban have control over border crossings with trade worth $3.4 billion p.a, incl. $2 billion p.a. with Iran. Undeclared trade worth significantly more with 1.5 million MT of fuel entering Afghanistan from Iran undeclared. dec.usaid.gov/dec/GetDoc.axd…

4. It’s not just trade. By taking Ziranj Taliban also control a major source of water to Sistan Baluchistan with the intakes from the Helmand river sitting just south of the city. With Kamal Khan dam complete its easy to stop the flow of water to Iran.

5. Tehran will remember the late 1990s when drought and poor relations with Iran prompted then Governor of Nimroz Mullah Rasul (now Taliban dissident) to shut off the water supply to the Hamouns and the restive Sunni Baloch of Sistan Baluchistan.

6. Then there’s the drugs & people smuggling channeled through Nimroz: it remains a major conduit for both & these economies are a critical source of livelihood for those on all three borders - Iran, Pakistan & Afghanistan - and a major security issue for Tehran.

7. All this points to Tehran’s growing dependency on the Taliban who now dominates its eastern border with leverage over trade, water and security issues. Given the history- & the chaotic way in which Ziranj was taken- Tehran must have major concerns regarding its new neighbour

8. Full breakdown of the significance of Nimroz next week in our forthcoming report for @L4P_Afghanistan with @AlcisGeo @smithkabul and colleagues.