Thread by @mansfieldintinc

1. Following the last thread I’ve been asked a few times how much
money the Taliban is making from the official border crossings it seized over the last month?

https://twitter.com/mansfieldintinc/status/1415335107238445059

2. Based on our work for @L4P_Afghanistan it is clear that it is less a case of how much money the Taliban has earned & more an issue of how much they have denied the govt & it’s allies?

3. The Taliban has been taxing cross border trade through these crossings for a number of years with checkpoints along the main highway in Farahrud, Delarem, Ghorghory, Muqur and Kunduz.

4. As such, if anything the Taliban has lost funds by disrupting trade at the borders, a function of temporary closures, customs officials fleeing & the cross decking of goods reducing the volume of trade.

5. Our estimate using imagery & fieldwork is Taliban earned $84 million p.a. on transit & fuel from Iran @ Farahrud & Ghorghory & $27 million p.a. @ muqur from goods crossing @ Spin Boldak. The Talibans capture of crossings will have disrupted this trade & hit their bottom line.

6. Far more important, the Taliban will have denied money to the govt and it’s allies. According to official trade statistics each month $240 million in goods would have transited the official crossings the Taliban seized over the last month.

7. The duties would have been worth $14 million/month with a further $17 million/month in direct taxes. So a loss of $31 million per month to Kabul.

8. Based on our work it is not unreasonable to estimate that just as many goods pass through these borders undeclared: a potential loss of a further US$ 31 million a month in bribes to government allies and strongmen.

9. This has gotta hurt & will impact on the bargains between Kabul & those on the borders who have helped hold the Afghan government together. See the forthcoming report for @L4P_Afghanistan with @AlcisGeo @smithkabul & colleagues.