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Shane Crotty Profile picture
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6 Aug, 7 tweets, 3 min read
A huge J&J COVID-19 vaccine study has just been released this morning, including Delta variant cases. ~500,000 person study in South Africa! A careful and well done clinical study by an amazing team, including Glenda Gray.
Take home messages: 🧵
Take home messages:
🔵 ~93% protection from death
🔵  ~71% protection from Delta variant hospitalizations
🔵  Large study
🔵 ~93% protection from death
Clear result. Covers both the Beta variant period and the Delta variant period. Looks to be equal against both.
🔵  ~71% protection from Delta variant hospitalizations

This is...underwhelming.

That is actually identical to 1-dose AZ report from UK against Delta.

khub.net/web/phe-nation…
This looks consistent with it being reasonable for people who are 1-dose J&J vaxxed to want a booster dose
Please note that a majority of media outlets are reporting this result as "71% protection against infections." That is incorrect. It is 71% protection against hospitalizations.
More complete details here on the South Africa Sisonke J&J study (h/t a bunch of people!)

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More from @profshanecrotty

Shane Crotty Profile picture
5 Aug
In my opinion, it is now time for J&J vaxxed to get a 2nd dose.🧵
🔵 Delta variant is so much faster
🔵 Available data (very limited) suggest weakening of J&J immunity against Delta
🔵 No news from J&J about their 2-dose vaccine
This is a personal opinion. If I had J&J this is what I would do now. I am sharing it here because I am also sharing it with friends and family. I am not an MD, so this is not medical advice, and as noted below, there is no specific clinical trial supporting J&J + RNA.
1st point:
🔵 Delta variant is so much faster
Read 37 tweets
Shane Crotty Profile picture
30 Jul
The ‘leaked’ CDC presentation summarizes a lot of key Delta variant data, but it takes an unusually dark interpretation. Overall, the report basically restates what we have known for a month from England:
🔵 RNA vaccines still work ~88% against Delta cases (and even better against hospitalizations).
🔵 Delta is much more infectious (i.e., transmits faster)
🔵 Delta has faster 🔝 viral loads.

Yes, Delta variant is trouble! And it is really trouble for unvaccinated people
“Although it’s rare, we believe that at an individual level, vaccinated people may spread the virus, which is why we updated our recommendation,” according to the federal health official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.”
Read 9 tweets
Shane Crotty Profile picture
24 Jun
Immunity in people who have had COVID-19 and get a vaccine is a fascinating topic. There are really impressive immune responses! I discuss this in Science today, particularly highlighting recent discoveries. 🧵
science.sciencemag.org/content/372/65…
Hybrid vigor can occur when different plant lines are bred together. Something similar happens when natural immunity is combined with vaccine-generated immunity, resulting in 25 to 100 times higher antibody responses, driven by memory B and CD4 T cells. Image
Conceptualized above as trees of different sizes.
And here's another visualization, a bit more to scale. 😁 Image
Read 24 tweets
Shane Crotty Profile picture
14 Jun
Novavax COVID-19 vaccine 90% effective in USA Phase 3 trial! 🧵

This is a protein subunit vaccine

🔵 90% effective against COVID-19 cases
🔵 ~100% effective against "Moderate to severe" COVID-19 (14 cases total in the trial, all in placebo group)
🔵 Very good safety profile
Vaccine efficacy: 90.4% against any COVID-19. Very good!
No moderate or severe cases in the vaccinated group. Very good!
14 moderate to severe in the placebo group.
So, "100%" protection, for 14 events measured.
(The trial was done with a 2 to 1 ratio of vaccinated to placebo people, so the math takes that into account)
Read 11 tweets
Shane Crotty Profile picture
11 Jun
Ed Yong won a Pulitzer! My favorite @edyong209 quote is:

“An immunology board game would have a rulebook that's 600 pages long and is written only in acronyms; there's a cupboard's worth of tokens; and every so often, the board spontaneously catches fire.”

@PulitzerPrizes
Immortalized on a coffee mug in my household
😂

Original quote here:

Read 4 tweets
Shane Crotty Profile picture
4 Jun
Data from the UK are convincing that B.1.617.2 (including NTD deletion)(1st seen in India) is the variant of the future.

1-dose RNA vaccine does NOT sufficiently protect against that virus, so please get your 2nd vaccine dose! 🧵
Sadly, the data are now clear enough that B.1.617.2 is:
🔵 Substantially more transmissible than B117 (~50%)
🔵 Exhibits partial antibody escape, almost = B.1.351
🔵 Can infect most people who only received 1-dose of RNA or AZ vaccine
So, this new variant will probably outcompete other variants in most populations.

The positive is that 2-doses of RNA vaccines work very well still against B.1.617.2 (~90% prevention of cases. UK data).
Read 7 tweets

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