Thread by @profshanecrotty

Data from the UK are convincing that B.1.617.2 (including NTD deletion)(1st seen in India) is the variant of the future.

1-dose RNA vaccine does NOT sufficiently protect against that virus, so please get your 2nd vaccine dose! 🧵

Sadly, the data are now clear enough that B.1.617.2 is:
🔵 Substantially more transmissible than B117 (~50%)
🔵 Exhibits partial antibody escape, almost = B.1.351
🔵 Can infect most people who only received 1-dose of RNA or AZ vaccine

So, this new variant will probably outcompete other variants in most populations.

The positive is that 2-doses of RNA vaccines work very well still against B.1.617.2 (~90% prevention of cases. UK data).

Kudos to Public Health England @PHE_uk for their incredible national data collection, virus sequencing, vaccination efforts, data analysis, and very rapid data sharing with the world.

For America, I and plenty of others said that the 1st half of 2021 was a race between vaccination rates and B.1.1.7. And the 2nd half of 2021 would be questions about (a) waning immunity and (b) whether any variant could compete with B117 in a vaccinated population,

with the top variant worries at the time being B.1.351 and P.1 or B117+ 484.

We clearly won the vaccination race against B117 in America these past 5 months. But 2-dose vaccine rates definitely need to be higher in America to stop B.1.617.2
(1-dose is likely fine to prevent severe COVID-19, and likely works for months, but those are early guesstimates)