Thread by @DonaldWelsh16

Last week, Alberta ended in quick fashion the C19 escapade, the single worst policy decision in Canadian history. Its actions aligned with, and spurred on, 6 other provinces but not Ontario. Why does Ontario struggle to match Alberta's ability to adjust policy? 1/

Alberta's decision attracted attention given its standing in the Canadian confederation. Its oil/gas wealth and business concentration makes it a "have" province and with that designation comes power. When Alberta speaks, Canadians must listen. 2/

Dr. Hinshaw's (Alberta's MOH) announcement was pedestrian. She highlighted the return of normal as there was no public health emergency. A small vocal group, fronted by the murky @masks4canada, protested in the 10's, but the public ignored them. 3/

tnc.news/2021/08/01/fur…

The truth is, the public health emergency in Alberta was modest, with all cause mortality data only registering a temporary rise (nov-dec 2020). This muted pattern was seen in 8 of 10 Canadian provinces. Ontario and Quebec are exceptions, the former particularly so. 4/

Other factors weighed into Alberta's decision, one being the culture of individualism and community governance which shuns central governmental action. Its a perspective that aligns with traditional prairie life. 5/

This perspective also aligns with the writings of FA Hayek. In Fatal Conceit, he argues against centrally driven, purposeful changes being efficient. More often, they drive societal disruption as they fail to incorporate distributed (local) knowledge. 6/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fatal…

This decentalized mindset served Alberta well during the C19 response. Public health regulated lightly and despite a few significant missteps, none were fatal. Public health objectives were presumably met and that afforded a quiet glide path to exit a non-pandemic pandemic. 7/

Enter Ontario, the problem child of the Canadian confederation. Its public response has been stubbornly slow, remarkably destructive and inflexible. By any reasonable measure, outcomes have been consistently poor. 8/

Case in point, Ontario hasn't completed the last two school years and the upcoming looks unpromising. Where other provinces prepare for normal, Ontario remains indecisive, ready to deliver another poor experience. An abdication of responsibility. 9/

toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/ontario…

Further, its centrally driven lockdown strategy, indiscriminately aimed at the public, hampers economic recovery. Tens of thousand of jobs are permanently lost and whole sectors of the economy remain idle. But worse, Ontario's dogmatic strategy has hastened death. 10/

All cause mortality data highlights two particular trends, the first being a notable death spike in April 2020, only superseded by quebec. Equally disturbing is the sustained death rate that remained for 8 months. 11/

The first spike is the result of LTC deaths, some by C19 but most by lockdown and neglect. The second sustained elevation involves both younger and older populations. Younger deaths typically result from despair and a similar trend is observed in US data. 12/

These consistently poor outcomes stands alone among all Canadian provinces and sharply contrasts with Alberta. So again, this begs the question why Ontario has faired so poorly. 13/

Ontario embraced the idea that C19 was a "wicked" problem requiring large gov't intervention. The central planners went to work conceptually aligning the province with PHAC (Public Health Agency of Canada) which was in turn tied into WHO's pandemic governance model. 14/

There is technocratic allure to these centrally driven structures. They appear efficient, with top down expert panels defining the pandemic and the operational parameters, with ground level MOHs simply implementing policy. But below the surface lay all the problems. 15/

Aloft technocrat structures suffer from a common problem, they are brittle. They are slow to recognize policy failure and groupthink makes them inflexible and hostile to change. Local knowledge is openly dismissed. In other words, these structures are designed to "break" 16/

This is currently happening in Ontario with regards to C19 policy. Central planning within public health has produce 18 continuous months of policy failure. They fervently resist change, present endlessly tiresome groupthink and fail to acknowledge basic facts. 17/

So what happens next? Can public health be reasoned with and diverted from its centrally driven "sunk cost fallacy"? Unlikely. In the end it will be the will of the public, fueled by open distain of govermental failure that will end this debacle. 18/

It's a bitter pill to swallow and one avoidable by following the lead of Alberta. Its light regulatory approach, buttressed by community engagement and the thoughts of Fedrick Hayek are winning the day. Ontario needs a philosophical change within public health. End.