1/ Back in 2001, I used to play this game called Runescape (runescape.com)
(Which is still very much around, but looks nothing like it did when I played.)
2/ There was a whole world to explore, quests to complete, skills to learn, and players to meet.
3/ I sank hundreds of hours in the mines, clicking on rocks to mine ore, then hauling it back to town to smelt and then crafting it into armor to sell.
4/ The game developed it's own economy. Completing later quests meant fighting stronger monsters. Stronger monsters required better weapons and armors. Better armor and weapons required rare ores to be smelted by skilled blacksmiths.
5/ On holidays, the developers decided to have some fun by dropping items like party hats (New Years), Santa hats (Christmas), and masks (Halloween).
But the fixed supply created scarcity.
And over the years, these items became a status symbol.
6/ Some 20 years later, party hats now sell for several thousand USD and for several *billion* in in-game currency.
7/ Why do I bring all this up?
Because for all the skepticism I have about NFTs ("it's just a jpeg!"), I've seen cases where jpegs maintain their value for decades.
8/ Culture/passion assets are weird.
Why does Rolex command a premium over Breitling or Tudor? Why do people pay up for Air Jordans?
Why do people collect trading cards (be it sports, MtG, Pokemon, etc)?
9/ "But Corey," you say, "When I own a Rolex, I physically own it! When you own a party hat in Runescape, it has in-game utility! You can't prevent me from copy/pasting a jpeg!"
True.
10/ But we're already seeing the NFT/game cross-over with applications like zed.run
11/ And I suspect, in the future, there will be further NFT integrations.
(e.g. "enter your wallet address to import your NFTs into this digital world")
12/ But, perhaps, there's just cultural value. Both in the contemporaneous action of being part of the "in-group," and, in the future, owning something that was a part of crypto history.
13/ It's easy to be dismissive of jpegs.
But I spent hundreds of hours of my youth toiling away in a digital world to afford a digital item.
Silly? Probably just as silly as my watch collection today.
Fin.
14/ Also, Venezuelans using Runescape as a currency hedge is an awesome story.
I interpret @GestaltU’s point as reflexive: if everyone prepares for the last crash, then it’s almost impossible for a crash like it to occur!
@vixologist@AttainCap2@GestaltU I don’t disagree with either of those points. Adam’s point is one of the reasons that many on here – myself included – were saying that it would be hard to see a post-election crash last November.
@vixologist@AttainCap2@GestaltU I still think a lot of the same dynamics permeate the system (namely, excessive risk taken driven by low interest rates; adoption of systematic strategies; influence of options on underlying) – but the build up of risk that 🍋 alludes to may be gone for some time.
1/ I constantly get questions from people looking to go into graduate financial engineering (“FE”) programs.
I thought I’d compile my thoughts into a thread 🧵
2/ For context, I graduated from Carnegie Mellon’s MS in Computational Finance program in December 2010.
It was the world’s first FE program and, at the time, ranked #1.
Everything that follows is just my opinion based upon my experience.
3/ What are these degrees? They’re interdisciplinary studies (typically finance, mathematics, and computer science) that try to prepare someone for a career as a “quant.”
I know leverage is often seen as a “no-no” for home office gate keepers, but ETF’s like $NTSX and Simplify’s coming $TYA (sec.gov/Archives/edgar…) get my creative juices going.
e.g. 66% $NTSX + 34% $COM gives you a 60/40 with a 33% overlay in long/flat commodities
That’s a potentially interesting inflation hedge that can “turn itself off” during commodity drawdowns.
And there’s tons of examples like this if we are willing to look at net portfolio exposure rather than on an itemized basis.
All of a sudden a go-nowhere, low-vol ETF like $BTAL becomes an interesting low-correlation overlay profile.
It’s not a question of “what do I have to sell to buy this?” It’s a question of, “what do I want to layer on top of my core asset allocation?"
It’ll be interesting to see how hedge funds on the block chain try to maintain “secrecy.”
e.g. If you know Alameda’s wallet address (debank.com/profile/0x84d3…), you can watch where they send their money and the contracts they interact with.
(continued…)
e.g. You can track that they recently moved money to MATIC and are farming at Adamant Finance (apeboard.finance/dashboard/0x84…)
The project’s discord is currently quite concerned about Alameda just nuking the reward token to $0 as they sell.
So what do hedge funds do?
Try to stay under the radar with a lot of smaller wallets? Possible for new funds, perhaps.
I think I’m going to go full @jam_croissant and just start using animal emojis for everything.
🦬 will be trend followers (herd mentality).
🐢 will be volatility targeters (slow and steady).
🐋 will be target date funds (large!).
🐖 will be structured products (piggish fees).
🦖will be “short volatility” strategies (because, ya know, exogenous knock-out risk)
🪳 will be for “long volatility” strategies (survive anything, but you’re ugly and everyone hates you)