I’ve written hundreds of research articles on the Newfound blog throughout the years.

I stopped writing last year (got burnt out), so my guess is a lot of new followers don’t even know they exist.

Here are a few that I’m especially proud of ➡️
1.

No Pain, No Premium

- Re-thinking portfolio construction from a risk-based framework

- The philosophical limits of diversification

- The “what, how, when” diversification framework

blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/02/no-pai…
2.

Tactical Credit + Value and the Credit Spread

- An exploration into making credit trades based upon momentum and valuation signals

blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/06/tactic…

blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/07/value-…
3.

Time Dilation

- Conventional analysis looks at time-series using a time-based clock

- But is that the right way to look at financial data?

- We explore the impact of using a volatility-based block

blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/03/time-d…
4.

G̷̖̱̓́̀litch

- We explore how the horizon over which trend-following strategies exhibit convexity based upon the speed of the trend model

- h/t to @ArturSepp for the inspiration

blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/02/glitch/
5.

Is Multi-Manager Diversification Worth It?

- When does combining managers reduce volatility?

- Understanding why “how-based” diversification can reduce the “dispersion in terminal wealth”

blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/01/is-mul…
6.

Trade Optimization

- This one is pretty technical (but has code!)

- We explore ways to introduce constraints to reduce explicit and implicit trading costs

blog.thinknewfound.com/2018/08/trade-…
7.

Factor Fimbulwinter

- Back in 2018, value was suffering.

- We asked the simple question: how long would value have to suffer to *undo* the statistical confidence we have based upon the factor’s history

blog.thinknewfound.com/2018/06/factor…
8.

Two Centuries of Momentum

- A long overview of the theory and academic support for both momentum and trend signals

blog.thinknewfound.com/2018/03/two-ce…
9.

Thinking in Long/Short Portfolios

- Understanding the implicit short bets that long-only investors have in their portfolios

- Why this decomposition can provide clarity around what active bets are made and the costs associated with them

blog.thinknewfound.com/2018/03/thinki…
10.

Portable Beta: Making the Most of the Returns You’re Already Getting

- Understanding how leverage can allow you to create more capital effiicnet portfolios

blog.thinknewfound.com/2017/12/portab…
11.

Combining Tactical Views with Black-Litterman and Entropy Pooling

- An exploration of two popular methods for combining strategic and tactical views

blog.thinknewfound.com/2017/07/combin…
12.

Did Declining Rates Actually Matter?

- It’s commonly believed that declining rates provided a meaningful tailwind to bonds over the last 40 years…

- But is that actually true?

blog.thinknewfound.com/2017/04/declin…
13. Capital Efficiency in Multi-Factor Portfolios

- Another technical piece (beware of math)

- Explores the implicit factor loadings in integrated versus mixed multi-factor strategies

blog.thinknewfound.com/2016/10/capita…
14.

A shock to the coveriance system

- We use eigen-value decomposition to decompose risk structure into independent sources

- With these sources in hand, we can “shock” risk factors and re-create the associated covariance matrix

blog.thinknewfound.com/2016/10/shock-…
15.

Growth is not “not value”

- Going through index provider rules to undertsand how “growth” and “value” indices are actually constructed in practice

blog.thinknewfound.com/2016/02/growth…
16.

Rebalance Timing Luck: The (Dumb) Luck of Smart Beta

- This is just a link to a paper… but I think it’s a really important paper

blog.thinknewfound.com/2020/08/rebala…
17.

Liquidity Cascades: The Coordinated Risk of Uncoordinated Market Participants

- Why do markets seem to be so weird lately?

- Central banks, passive investing, high frequency traders, and volatility-contingent strategies

blog.thinknewfound.com/2020/09/liquid…
Okay… that’s enough.

A big, heartfelt “thank you" to everyone who has subscribed to our research throughout the years.

Maybe we’ll start writing actively again, one day...
This got more popular than expected.

Big shout out to @MebFaber, @alphaarchitect and @GestaltU who have also published hundreds of articles on their own blogs over the last decade.

Many gems hidden in there.

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More from @choffstein

5 Jul
It’ll be interesting to see how hedge funds on the block chain try to maintain “secrecy.”

e.g. If you know Alameda’s wallet address (debank.com/profile/0x84d3…), you can watch where they send their money and the contracts they interact with.

(continued…)
e.g. You can track that they recently moved money to MATIC and are farming at Adamant Finance (apeboard.finance/dashboard/0x84…)

The project’s discord is currently quite concerned about Alameda just nuking the reward token to $0 as they sell.
So what do hedge funds do?

Try to stay under the radar with a lot of smaller wallets? Possible for new funds, perhaps.
Read 6 tweets
23 Jun
The 🦬 herd is primed to stampede…
I think I’m going to go full @jam_croissant and just start using animal emojis for everything.

🦬 will be trend followers (herd mentality).
🐢 will be volatility targeters (slow and steady).
🐋 will be target date funds (large!).
🐖 will be structured products (piggish fees).
🦖will be “short volatility” strategies (because, ya know, exogenous knock-out risk)

🪳 will be for “long volatility” strategies (survive anything, but you’re ugly and everyone hates you)

🦍 will be for memestock traders

🐑 will be for anyone I disagree with
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
Sitting in the discord of an altcoin that went from $4 to $60 over the last week, and $60 to $0.25 in the last day.
"yes we're under attack from bots. Remember to buy the dip"
Update: price now <$0.01
Read 4 tweets
28 May
Okay, new 🏴‍☠️ Pirates of Finance episode out.

We’re talking about ZED Run.

Which, on the surface, is just digital horse racing. But there’s some interesting design elements that invite some fascinating quantitative analysis…

Read on 👇

In ZED Run, horses are assigned to different classes and can only compete in races of their class (or the class above).

When a horse wins a lot, it is bumped up a class. When a horse loses a lot, it gets bumped down a class.
Right now, this is based upon a point system. Winning a race gives you +4 points and coming in 12th gives you -4 points.
Read 8 tweets
26 May
Lots of chatter in Q1 about turning momentum – and that most ETFs would miss it because they don’t continually rebalance.

If they had, they would’ve allocated far more to Financials (and more to Materials, Energy, Industrials, Staples, and Real Estate).

To adjust an equal-weight momentum ETF portfolio (MTUM + JMOM + FDMO + VFMO), we could’ve the ETF exposures by 20% and allocated to a mix of the sector ETFs to.

Doing so would’ve added ~250bp in the last few months.
That blue line is:

2.5% XLB
2.5% XLE
7.5% XLF
2.5% XLI
2.5% XLP
2.5% XLRE
20% MTUM
20% FDMO
20% JMOM
20% VFMO
Read 4 tweets
1 May
1/ 🧵 I spent the last week looking into the BTC futures basis trade (on the unregulated exchanges).

I thought I'd share some thoughts as to my findings...

👇👇👇
(Did I do that right?)
2/ 📉 First, what is it?

On FTX, the June 25th BTC futures contract (BTC-0625) is trading for $60,168. The underlying index price is $57,895.

The trade is to put up 1 BTC as collateral and short the futures contract, waiting for the spread to converge at expiration.
3/ And the annualized return of this trade is surprisingly juicy. Approximately:

(60,168 / 57,895) ^ (365.25 / 55) - 1 ≈ 29%

So juicy, you have to ask: "wait, why aren't more people doing this?"
Read 23 tweets

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