It’ll be interesting to see how hedge funds on the block chain try to maintain “secrecy.”

e.g. If you know Alameda’s wallet address (debank.com/profile/0x84d3…), you can watch where they send their money and the contracts they interact with.

(continued…)
e.g. You can track that they recently moved money to MATIC and are farming at Adamant Finance (apeboard.finance/dashboard/0x84…)

The project’s discord is currently quite concerned about Alameda just nuking the reward token to $0 as they sell.
So what do hedge funds do?

Try to stay under the radar with a lot of smaller wallets? Possible for new funds, perhaps.
But I believe there are cryptographic ways in which two parties can “mix” assets and then obscure who owns the wallets the money is paid to on the other side.

(I believe I watched a video from Ari Juels on this.)

So you could have “anonymization” as an service.
You could also have them just move it all to a centralized exchange, and then resend it to hundreds of tiny wallets.

Probably easier than the above idea.
Equally fascinating that, at the moment, Alameda doesn’t seem to care much.

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More from @choffstein

23 Jun
The 🦬 herd is primed to stampede…
I think I’m going to go full @jam_croissant and just start using animal emojis for everything.

🦬 will be trend followers (herd mentality).
🐢 will be volatility targeters (slow and steady).
🐋 will be target date funds (large!).
🐖 will be structured products (piggish fees).
🦖will be “short volatility” strategies (because, ya know, exogenous knock-out risk)

🪳 will be for “long volatility” strategies (survive anything, but you’re ugly and everyone hates you)

🦍 will be for memestock traders

🐑 will be for anyone I disagree with
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
Sitting in the discord of an altcoin that went from $4 to $60 over the last week, and $60 to $0.25 in the last day.
"yes we're under attack from bots. Remember to buy the dip"
Update: price now <$0.01
Read 4 tweets
28 May
Okay, new 🏴‍☠️ Pirates of Finance episode out.

We’re talking about ZED Run.

Which, on the surface, is just digital horse racing. But there’s some interesting design elements that invite some fascinating quantitative analysis…

Read on 👇

In ZED Run, horses are assigned to different classes and can only compete in races of their class (or the class above).

When a horse wins a lot, it is bumped up a class. When a horse loses a lot, it gets bumped down a class.
Right now, this is based upon a point system. Winning a race gives you +4 points and coming in 12th gives you -4 points.
Read 8 tweets
26 May
Lots of chatter in Q1 about turning momentum – and that most ETFs would miss it because they don’t continually rebalance.

If they had, they would’ve allocated far more to Financials (and more to Materials, Energy, Industrials, Staples, and Real Estate).

To adjust an equal-weight momentum ETF portfolio (MTUM + JMOM + FDMO + VFMO), we could’ve the ETF exposures by 20% and allocated to a mix of the sector ETFs to.

Doing so would’ve added ~250bp in the last few months.
That blue line is:

2.5% XLB
2.5% XLE
7.5% XLF
2.5% XLI
2.5% XLP
2.5% XLRE
20% MTUM
20% FDMO
20% JMOM
20% VFMO
Read 4 tweets
1 May
1/ 🧵 I spent the last week looking into the BTC futures basis trade (on the unregulated exchanges).

I thought I'd share some thoughts as to my findings...

👇👇👇
(Did I do that right?)
2/ 📉 First, what is it?

On FTX, the June 25th BTC futures contract (BTC-0625) is trading for $60,168. The underlying index price is $57,895.

The trade is to put up 1 BTC as collateral and short the futures contract, waiting for the spread to converge at expiration.
3/ And the annualized return of this trade is surprisingly juicy. Approximately:

(60,168 / 57,895) ^ (365.25 / 55) - 1 ≈ 29%

So juicy, you have to ask: "wait, why aren't more people doing this?"
Read 23 tweets
10 Apr
New 🏴‍☠️Pirates of Finance episode out!

@JasonMutiny and I talk collectibles and have a special guest on to talk about the world of Scotch.

If you enjoy, please like, subscribe, and leave us a comment!

And if you don’t, let us know that too!

@JasonMutiny Some highlights…

1. UHNW investors have more money in collectibles than gold/precious metals.

(Are they just coming up with an excuse to buy what they want?)
@JasonMutiny 2. “What is a collectible?”

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

But it’s a pretty big and diverse space.
Read 9 tweets

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