📣 DAILY STATE-BASED VAXX UPDATE:
(R^2: 0.7419)
--PA & VA closing in on 60% of their total pop. vaxxed
--AK just ~150 does away from breaking 50%
--KY, OH & NC all closing in on 50%
--ND breaks 45% 🎉
--ID closing in on 40%
Assuming herd immunity will be reached when we hit 85% (which is hardly a given), nationally, we need at least 206 million more doses administered nationally (not counting any potential booster shots).

At ~700K/day, that would take 294 more days, or Memorial Day, 2022.
If we need to hit 90% fully vaxxed to reach herd immunity (impossible w/out kids under 12 being able to take the vaxx), we'll need another ~240 million doses administered. That'd take another 49 days at 700K/day, or mid-July 2022.
Granted, *if* the vaccine is approved for kids under 12 yrs old, there will likely be a mini-surge as parents line up to get their younger children vaccinated, which will help a lot...but my guess is it'll only be approved for, say, 5-11 yr olds for awhile even then.

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More from @charles_gaba

9 Aug
Narrator: Yeah, it kind of was, at least in part.
(I know this sounds harsh; it'd be one thing if she had pleaded with them to get vaccinated & they chose not to, but the tweet says she "doesn't regret" their decision, which sure as hell sounds like she didn't even *try* to convince them. SHE'S A NURSE FOR GOD'S SAKE.
Oh yeah...and SHE STILL REFUSES TO GET VACCINATED HERSELF EVEN NOW.

Meanwhile, her brother TRIED to get their parents vaccinated with no success. HIM I have sympathy for.
Read 4 tweets
8 Aug
DeSantis’ game plan appears to be the “burn through the population” route, figuring that the entire state will be infected and a bunch of people will die THIS fall in the hopes that by NEXT year Florida will have “natural herd immunity” in time for his re-election.
Assuming this is his strategy, it has two major flaws: First, he assumes that voters memory is short enough that they’ll forget who helped kill their family & friends a year earlier. Second, it assumes there won’t be OTHER uglier variants which pop up between now and then.
NOTE: I didn't say that his "strategy" makes *sense* mind you, just that I can't figure out what the hell else would explain this insanity.
Read 4 tweets
7 Aug
⚠️ New COVID cases per capita vs. vaccination rates by county. 49 states + DC (NE not available): Image
Can anyone explain to me WTF is going on in Dimmit County, Texas?? I know that Chattahoochee County, GA's numbers are skewed by Fort Bening being there (military cases are reported from around the country), and I've heard from someone re. Sitka, AK, but what's up w/Dimmit, TX??
Dimmit County, TX only has around 10,000 residents. They're 49% vaccinated, which isn't great but isn't terrible relatively speaking. They're near the Mexican border but seem to barely touch it. I don't see any major prisons or military bases.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimmit_Co…
Read 4 tweets
2 Aug
I remember when Dem KY-SOS Alison Grimes was running against Mitch McConnell for Senate and repeatedly refused to admit that she had voted for Obama in 2008 or 2012 citing the same "voting is private" excuse. It...did not work out well for her.
In this case it's the opposite--Turner is refusing to admit that she DIDN'T vote for the Democratic Presidential nominee. The problem is that Grimes was running against a Republican in a heavily red state, while Turner is running against a Democrat in a heavily blue district.
What was stupid about Grimes' refusal to answer is that she's CLEARLY a long-time, loyal party Democrat, who even boasted about being a delegate for Hillary Clinton (who, of course, was Obama's own SOS and quite chummy with him by 2014). It wasn't exactly the mystery of the ages.
Read 4 tweets
2 Aug
Interesting. There's a bigger trend line difference between the % of people vaccinated based on *total doses administered* (left) and those *fully vaccinated* (right) by state than I had expected. 1/
The graph on the left (which I use for my daily state-level tracking) is based on total doses divided by 2x pop. (w/J&J counting twice).

The graph on the right only counts people fully vaxxed (either 2 Pfizer/Moderna or 1 J&J); this is what I use for *county-level* tracking. 2/
Since the graph on the right doesn't include those who've only had their 1st dose, it makes sense that every state will be somewhat lower. What surprised me is that there's such a wide difference in *how much* lower some states are than others. 3/
Read 7 tweets
1 Aug
This pie chart also helps explain the rise of Trumpism, xenophobia, White Supremacy and so forth nationally: White people will no longer be the majority of the population within a decade or two and many of them aren’t taking it well, to put it mildly.
By 2027, less than 50% of all minors will be White. By 2045 less than 50% of the total U.S. population will be.

They’ll still be the largest PLURALITY for decades more to come, but they’re freaking out about it.
When one group systematically treats other groups like shit for hundreds of years they assume that the other groups would do the same in return if their positions were reversed. I’m pretty sure most BIPOC don’t want revenge, they just want White folks to stop being assholes.
Read 4 tweets

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