Thread by @FPLBrain

🧠 THE MINI COMPLETE GUIDE TO FPL 🧠

Okay here goes nothing - I'm going to turn my full (37 page) Complete Guide to #FPL into an epic twitter thread!

It begins with basics for beginners, then gets into strategies for returning managers to improve their skills

Let's do this! 👇

INTRO

I've played FPL seriously for 4 yrs (224k, 28k, 16k, 19k) and had 2 top 500 finishes in Telegraph Fantasy prior. My background is in financial research, quant analysis and portfolio mngt, and I've played & watched footie for > 30 years

That's me!

Okay onto THE BASICS :-

We pick a squad of 15 players. You want 2-3 big hitters for captaincy (score double), plenty of nailed on players on good teams, other teams' talismen, mix of upside and value picks, and at least 1 decent player on the bench in case needed. Mids get 5 pts for a goal, fwds get 4

Read the rules for the rest of the scoring - we don't got time for that here!

You get 1 free transfer (FT) per Gameweek (GW). If you don't use it you'll have 2 the next GW, but never more. Transfers beyond your FTs cost you 4 pts (that's a fwd's goal remember).

You have 2...

.. Wildcards, one for before year-end and one for after. They let you choose a whole new team. You also have a Triple Captain chip (3x points), a Bench Boost (bench scores points as well as 1st XI) and a Free Hit (pick a fresh squad for that GW, then you get your old team back)

Success in FPL is often judged on either your Overall Rank (OR), your rank out of every manager playing the game, or how you're doing in Mini Leagues (small leagues, public / private, that you can join / create).

These days I'd say top 500k is solid, top 100k good, top 10k great

YOUR SQUAD

You can't afford all the very best players. You need at least 1 or 2 of the very best (e.g. Mo, Bruno, Kane, Lukaku, KDB) for cap options, then go for the best combos of upside, value, security of starts, etc. Cheap GKs are usually fine as they get more saves & bonus

Try to pick players at price points with other strong options (in case you need to swap them due to injury or poor form), and go for a mixture of players with strong early fixtures versus who you consider the best long-term bets. Tilt more to fixtures if you think you'll WC early

BANANA SKINS TO AVOID

- Don't miss deadlines
- Don't spend too much on the bench
- Avoid DMs
- Don't waste transfers on low impact players
- Try to remain objective
- Cap and VC in different fixtures, just in case
- Don't give up if you have a bad start
- At least 1-2 ok backups

⚡️ PART 2 - WAYS TO IMPROVE ⚡️

DO YOUR RESEARCH!

- Listen to at least 1 or 2 good FPL podcasts each GW (WGTA, FML FPL, The Wire, Always Cheating, The Green Arrow and Black Box are great, as are lots of others)
- Look at key stats (especially xG!)
- Watch games / highlights

- Read some good weekly threads - there's so much great content out there (@BigManBakar)
- Monitor upcoming fixtures, especially very good or bad runs to target / avoid
- Scan press conference highlights (@ColmVHayes)
- Check the bookies' odds (@FPL_Salah)
- Check captaincy polls

TRY TO THINK LONG-TERM

FPL is a marathon not a sprint. While there's a temptation to chase short-term gains, long-term planning & perspective typically result in the best performance and most enjoyment

Try not to avoid impulsive 'rage transfers' - you'll often regret them!

TRANSFERS ARE PRECIOUS

You only have 34 FTs (+ 2 Wildcards + Free Hit) to use across a very long season, many of which may be needed for 'putting out fires'. So use the rest selectively , thoughtfully (near-term and long-term planning) and try to avoid frivolous 'sideways' moves

ALWAYS LOOK FOR UPSIDE

Wherever possible you need to try and identify players with the potential to seriously outperform their price (e.g. Jimenez 18/19, Dallas 20/21, Robbo 18/19, Mahrez 15/16 etc). Easier said than done, but you don't need to nail them right away, you can...

.. jump on as they appear. But you do need to be trying to find these players. If you settle for safe, fully-priced picks then you're locking yourself into mediocrity.

Continually strive to find players who have a material, realistic best case way beyond the consensus & pricing

PLAYER SELECTION

So many good players to choose from! What makes the best pick?

Aim to identify players with the best combo of UPSIDE, DEPENDABILITY and VALUE. Too much risk and you're squad could soon be in tatters. Too little risk and you may struggle to move up the ranks

TARGET OUT-OF-POSITION PLAYERS

Seek out OOP players who are playing further forward than their position classification, such that they will be more generously rewarded by the scoring system for goals and cleansheets than they otherwise would be.

Here's a couple of key examples:

EFFECTIVE OWNERSHIP & THE TEMPLATE

Effective ownership factors in how many FPL managers' teams a player has been started in vs benched, how many times he’s been captained and triple captained. This gives you their live effective ownership (EO).

If EO is over 100% then a...

.. given players returns will actually negatively impact your rank if you own (but didn't captain) that player. It can be frustrating, but it's just the way the game works and I do enjoy the captaincy aspect of FPL, so you can't have it both ways.

'The template' that you may...

.. see mentioned a lot is essentially a squad of the highest EO players that can fit in a squad and within budget.

Being 'too template' is a criticism often levied, but most of the template players are popular for good reason. If you go out of your way to avoid these picks...

... then it's going to be difficult to succeed over time. It's best to have a healthy balance of the popular picks and some 'differentials' (lower EO picks) that you have high conviction in based on stats, eye test, etc.

In summary - don't let EO dominate your decisions...

.. but be aware of highly owned players and prioritise bringing them in if you think they're the real deal. If you believe you've found a more compelling alternative to a high EO player then this can be an opportunity to 'attack' and potentially gain some ground on the pack.

DON'T BE TOO HASTY

After a bad GW it can be tempting to try and 'fix' your team without delay. But try to stop and think. All else being equal, making decisions closer to the next GW deadline gives you more information to make the most optimal decisions, and carries less risk.

BUILD TEAM VALUE EARLY

It can be a trade-off versus the above, but early in the season there are a LOT of price changes, so if you can hop on to the major bandwagons then you can really build up your team value. Whether this really pays off long-term is debatable, but it's an...

.. approach that plenty of top managers apply. The best time to make these moves is when there are no midweek games to worry about, and you're bringing in a player due to rise (who you like regardless of price change) for a player due to drop. Don't get obsessed with this though!

SAVE AND MAXIMISE CHIPS

The best approach with chips is often to save them (apart from your 1st Wildcard) for later in the season, since they tend to be most effective when used to navigate / maximise blank and double gameweeks, often using them in combination to some degree.

FORMATION SELECTION

Any formation can be used successfully in FPL, but there are a few nuances which may not be immediately obvious. While defs and mids are typically better value than fwds, cheap defs also make better backups for the bench than cheap fwds, so it's not as...

simple as going 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 etc. Similarly, another hidden advantage of fwds is that hopping on and off to target fixtures runs tends to work quite well, whereas that's trickier with defenders I find.

Ultimately, player prices / best picks should drive squad selection and ...

.. hence formation, but personally I believe it's best to stick to the more balanced, tried and tested formations such as 4-4-2, 3-4-3 and 3-5-2. These 3 setups tend to allow you to have a solid enough bench in case you need it, and give you more flexibility as time goes on.

CAPTAINCY DECISIONS

Our captains and their double points make a huge impact on our FPL fortunes. Target ELITE players (e.g. Mo, Bruno, Kane, KDB, Lukaku) with good (preferably home) fixtures the large majority of the time. If there are compelling captaincy options coming up...

.. that you don't have then try and plan to bring them in, and it can even be worth using hits to do so.

LEARN FROM THE BEST

There are loads of 'meet the manager' / 'fireside chat' type podcasts out there. I listened to a ton of these over previous summers when I was trying...

.. to up my game, and I found it helped a ton and coincided with much-improved ranks. While elite managers have different styles of play, there are plenty of commonalities in terms of approach, philosophy, & mistakes they've learned to avoid. It's worth listening to their advice.

EXPECTED GOALS

Target / scrutinise players who are putting up compelling xG and xA numbers (in total or per 90) relative to their price, particularly where this backs up the eye test. Focus on VOLUME (good opportunities) rather than over/underperformance, which is more volatile.

MANAGE YOUR EMOTIONS

Come up with some methods to cool off after bad GWs (walk, jog, spend time with family & friends, focus on process over results, plan future moves etc), avoid making transfers while 'on tilt' and try not to get too complacent / cocky after green arrows.

KNOW YOURSELF & REMAIN OBJECTIVE

Try to settle into a playing style that fits quite naturally with your personality and risk appetite. Try to be aware of and moderate / counteract negative behavioural biases (@WGTA_FPL and @FPL__Raptor have done lots of work on this subject)

FIND GOOD SOUNDING BOARDS

Another balance that needs to be struck is in how much and what types of information you're taking in, and from where. Most notably, FPL Twitter can / will besiege you with an almost infinite amount of information if you're following a lot of accounts..

I think it's best - especially when making key decisions - to take in lots of high-quality information from realiable sources (pods, threads, etc), narrow down to your 2 or 3 top options, filter out much of the noise and discuss your moves with smart, trusted, experienced allies.

MAVERICKS & DULLARDS

These are terms you'll often find bandied around on podcasts and on FPL Twitter, with the former often and implied badge of honour, and the latter often used as a pejorative. Be careful... if you try to be too much of a maverick then you're making a series..

.. of low probability bets, and you're likely to come unstuck sooner or later. If you try to avoid taking any risk at all then I'm not sure the game is a lot of fun at that point, and you might find yourself stuck in the pack in the middle ranks, struggling to gain (or lose) ...

..much ground. Don't be afraid to stray from the template (or indeed 'the Twemplate') and go against the crowd when your research, 'eye test' and/or gut instinct strongly suggest you should, BUT don't go overboard on differentials / fun picks. There's no added pts for difficulty!

THAT'S IT! THAT'S YER LOT!

I hope this has been helpful to some beginners and veterans alike, or at least an interesting read.

As always... retweets, likes and follows are much appreciated ❤️

Thanks for reading and all the best for the coming season!

🧠✌️