1. @PartyPenguinNFT originally had a 0.03 mint price (excl. gas) and was down bad for holders (~66% down) for a few days. Yet top whales continued to have diamond hands till it sold out, then dumped for a strong 7-10x ROI.
2. @alphabettyNFT had a 0.03 mint price (excl. gas) and experienced volatility as flippers sold. Top holders though continued to hold and account for 68% supply. And now the price seems to be trending up as they shill.
So the next time you panic sell, check the data as whales are probably buying and holding.
And when influencers shill you a project, check the data as you're probably exit liquidity.
tldr;
Bid 0.01 USDC for top 100 rares, as buying panic sold rares is a risk free high beta play.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1. Illiquidity of NFTs fundamentally causes significant volatility.
Price action reflects emotional biases:
liquidation cascade => flipper/panic sellers realize their life savings are in jpegs
up only => price discovery/FOMO further fueled by canceled listings
2. Besides looking at the price floor, SMA is a nice way to confirm demand zones and predict momentum. @pudgy_penguins sat near the 0.8-1 ETH demand zone, after a breakout with significant volume, before trending higher.