1. Illiquidity of NFTs fundamentally causes significant volatility.
Price action reflects emotional biases:
liquidation cascade => flipper/panic sellers realize their life savings are in jpegs
up only => price discovery/FOMO further fueled by canceled listings
2. Besides looking at the price floor, SMA is a nice way to confirm demand zones and predict momentum. @pudgy_penguins sat near the 0.8-1 ETH demand zone, after a breakout with significant volume, before trending higher.
1. @PartyPenguinNFT originally had a 0.03 mint price (excl. gas) and was down bad for holders (~66% down) for a few days. Yet top whales continued to have diamond hands till it sold out, then dumped for a strong 7-10x ROI.
2. @alphabettyNFT had a 0.03 mint price (excl. gas) and experienced volatility as flippers sold. Top holders though continued to hold and account for 68% supply. And now the price seems to be trending up as they shill.