Couple things on CPI. First team transitory/reopen wins and it's just fair.
Still some fair hikes in love motels but overall its calmer.
1/x
Still some fair hikes in love motels but overall its calmer.
1/x
What I find interesting is shelter rent though.
First because we have a continuation of the "cheap states" inflation.
Detroit continues to rise.
Driven once more by the nice stuff.
Thank you Blackrock.
2/x
First because we have a continuation of the "cheap states" inflation.
Detroit continues to rise.
Driven once more by the nice stuff.
Thank you Blackrock.
2/x
One thing to keep an eye on is the fact that OER (which is biggest weight) is going much faster than Rental.
And that is starting to feel a touch odd to say the least.
3/x
And that is starting to feel a touch odd to say the least.
3/x
But more importantly the risk is that low incomes feel a bit disinfranchised as per the ny fed consumer survey.
There is a high uncertainty for that group reg home prices increases and I imagine that is driving why more and more people are feeling worse off from last year.
4/x
There is a high uncertainty for that group reg home prices increases and I imagine that is driving why more and more people are feeling worse off from last year.
4/x
I think the Fed is at much more complicated crossroads than we believe.
The claims data and delta variant are showing that there is more risk of delays to people going back to work than the latest NFP might make us think.
And that will drive wage inflation.
5/5
The claims data and delta variant are showing that there is more risk of delays to people going back to work than the latest NFP might make us think.
And that will drive wage inflation.
5/5
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