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11 Aug, 9 tweets, 5 min read
8/11 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/11:

1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, still hunting for a peak
2) Case rate of growth plummeting
3) Hospitalizations still hot
4) Breakdown on 112 reported fatalities

1/n
 .
8/11 Positivity Rates:

* PCR Pos% .07% higher than 8/6 peak. Lots of revisions every day to dates 2-10 days back so we will see where it lands
* PCR Pos% rate of growth new low of 4.1% week over week
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Slight bump today, but not uncommon.

2/n
 . ImageImageImage
8/11 Rate of Growth Analysis:

* For Case & Hosp the RoG is Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.1%
* Case rate of growth plummeting, down to 12.5%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 39.7%

3/n
 . Image
8/11 Cases:

* Good day here
* 14.2K cases reported, down from last Wednesday's 15.6K
* 3rd time in 6 days that the 7DMA has declined, now at 10.3K cases per day
* Case rate of growth down to 12.5%
* ~8/15 peak is a real possibility
* Cases may peak before PCR% Pos% LOL

4/n ImageImageImage
8/11 Hospitalizations

* Still running hot today. Rates of growth are slowing and leading indicators point to similar rate decline in coming days, but need to see it.
* Still running behind 2020. 2021 ICUs still far behind. 2021 Gen beds making up ground now.

5/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
8/11 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/20. 2021 through 6/21. 13 months apart.
* same story as the past several weeks. 2020 Summer wave well outpacing 2021 Summer wave through the above dates

6/n
 . Image
8/11 Fatalities Part 2:

* 112 reported today +52 over last Wednesday
* 84% of them in the past 2 weeks or from 6+ months ago
* These increasing fatalities are expected with this # of hospitalizations
* Nothing coming in for July 1-23, as per arrival pattern the past month

7/n
 . ImageImage
8/11 Primer on Fatalities

8/n
 .
8/11 Conclusion:

* Mixed bag today
* PCR Pos% isn't going down without a fight
* Case rate growth falling off a cliff. Hopefully this continues
* Hospitalizations, ready to see some slowing growth, like tomorrow
* 8/15 Case peak is a real possibility as of right now

9/end

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Aug
"Human action was going to teach us about the behavior assoc. w/ good health outcomes, while lockdowns based on limited info were going to blind us.

All of this must be considered in light of all the vitriol being directed toward the unvaccinated"

1/n
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brownstone.org/articles/vacci…
"Supposedly they [the unvaccinated] are selfish for not helping others by getting the shot. Aren’t we all in this together? Actually, we’re not. America is not a collective..."

2/n
 .
brownstone.org/articles/vacci…
"...rather it’s a collection of people who largely descend from individuals who risked everything in order to get away from collectives. If the unvaccinated worry the vaccinated, or the ill, the vaccinated and ill shouldn’t force their fear..."

3/n
 .
brownstone.org/articles/vacci…
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
12 Aug
8/12 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/12:

1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, but still dumb
2) Case rate of growth at 6.5%
3) Hospitalizations - start of a slowdown?
4) Breakdown on 120 reported fatalities

1/n
 .
8/12 Rate of Growth Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, Rate of growth is calculated by comparing Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 3.3%
* Case rate of growth plummeting, down to 6.5%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 38.0%

2/n
 . Image
8/12 Positivity Rates:

* PCR Pos% is dumb. Its flat as a pancake but just wont nose over. Rate of growth new low of 3.3%
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Slight bump again today, but far cry from its peak
* Not concerned because 2 sites looking at Rt both show a nose over

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
12 Aug
"In 2020s Covid, like the Great Depression, most Americans passively followed what the govt told them to do. The increasing resistance to these totalitarian policies are viewed by those in power as “extremists” not willing to “follow the science.”

1/n
 .
aier.org/article/a-defi…
"Every future declared health crisis can become a new rationale to impose lockdowns, order everyone to wear a mask and stay “x” number of feet away from those around you, command people to stop working and stay at home, & mandate vaccinations"

2/n
aier.org/article/a-defi…
"We are running headlong in the direction of a far more comprehensive paternalistic state, & farther away from a world in which government would basically leave us alone in our peaceful & voluntary actions and activities with our fellow human beings"

3/n
aier.org/article/a-defi…
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
10 Aug
8/10 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/10:

1) PCR Pos% in tentative 8/6 peak
2) Rates of growth decline
3) Hospitalizations running hot
4) New Fatality projections
5) Breakdown on 84 reported fatalities

1/n
 .
8/10 Positivity Rates:

* PCR forming a August 6 peak. Unlike last Tuesday when new high was set, today only 3rd highest of the past 4 days. Not ready to call it quite yet, but it lines up with the Rt peaks. About time.
* Antigen peak still 8/1. Declining strongly now.

2/n
 .
8/10 Rate of Growth Analysis:

* Put all three in one chart. Easy to see trend
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.2%
* Case rate of growth down to 25.2%
* Hosps rate of growth down to 41%

PCR & Case rates of growth declining rapidly. Hopefully hosps do same shortly

3/n
 .
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
9 Aug
8/9 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/9:

1) Rates of growth continue to slow
2) PCR typical Monday showing a peak, but rate of growth almost zero
3) Cases flattening?
4) Hospitalizations rate of growth slowing
5) Fatality breakdown

1/n
 .
8/9 Rate of Growth Analysis

* PCR Positivity Rate of growth is nearly zero, lowest since June 16
* Case Rate of growth is slowest since July 7
* Hospitalization rate of growth is slowest since July 18

2/n
 .
8/9 Positivity Rate

* Antigen peak holds at Aug 1. Now 8 days of declines
* PCR now 2 days of decline, an Aug 6 peak
* However, we've seen this before after a weekend. Tomorrow will be key to see if PCR Peak holds. With rate of growth ~ zero, better chance of this.

3/n
 .
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
9 Aug
8/8 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/8:
1) Rate of growth is slowing across the board
2) Antigen pos% in decline, PCR Flat
3) Case update
4) Hospitalizations & ICU growth slowing, behind 2020
5) 3 days of Fatality arrival breakdown

1/n
 .
8/8 Rate of Growth Analysis:

* Antigen Pos% in strong decline (next slide)
* Rest of metrics showing significant slowdown in rate of growth
* Lines up w/ flattening of Rt per Covidestim.org
* PCR Pos% rate of growth nearing zero. Cases & Hosps starting decline

2/n
 .
8/8 Positivity Rate:

* Antigen now in a fairly steep decline. Peak moved 2 days forward to 8/1 but a week of declines now.
* PCR rate of growth nearing zero, with the typical weekend peak forming. Will be watching for confirmed peak in next 2-3 days.

3/n
 .
Read 9 tweets

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