8/12 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/12:

1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, but still dumb
2) Case rate of growth at 6.5%
3) Hospitalizations - start of a slowdown?
4) Breakdown on 120 reported fatalities

1/n
.
8/12 Rate of Growth Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, Rate of growth is calculated by comparing Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 3.3%
* Case rate of growth plummeting, down to 6.5%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 38.0%

2/n
.
8/12 Positivity Rates:

* PCR Pos% is dumb. Its flat as a pancake but just wont nose over. Rate of growth new low of 3.3%
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Slight bump again today, but far cry from its peak
* Not concerned because 2 sites looking at Rt both show a nose over

3/n
.
8/12 Cases:

* Another pretty good day
* 11.9K cases reported, up from last Thurs 10.9K
* Case rate of growth down to 6.5% week over week
* That's looking like a peak, but not ready to call it yet
* Last Fri was only 8.8K, but Sat was 16.8K. 8/15 we should know what's up

4/n
.
8/12 Hospitalizations

* Maybe the start of some cooling off? Por favor?
* +299 to 10762. Last Thursday was +445. Small victories LOL
* Rate of Growth dropped 2nd largest amount so far, 1.7%, down to 38%
* Gen beds barely behind 2020. 2021 ICUs still far back vs 2020

5/n
.
8/12 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/21. 2021 through 6/22. 13 months apart.
* 2020 Summer Wave well outpacing 2021. Same ole.
* Next 3 days will have some weird comps vs 2020, but after that, 2020 is going to take off. More in 7/n.

6/n
.
8/12 Fatalities Part 2:

* To finish thought, Jun 17-23, 2020, a really weird gap in arrivals, then it takes off. That's the comp for the next 3 days
* 120 reported today +44 over last Thursday
* 87.5% of them from the past 2 weeks. Mid-July divergence with Hosps is big

7/n
.
8/12 Conclusion:

* Another mixed bag, but feels better than yesterday
* I hate the PCR test
* Cases forming a peak for now. Would make sense to due to Rt & Antigen Pos%
* 8/15 Case peak is still on?
* Hospitalizations fingers crossed next 2-3 days for fast deceleration

9/end
8/12 Conclusion:

* Another mixed bag, but feels better than yesterday
* I hate the PCR test
* Cases forming a peak for now. Would make sense to due to Rt & Antigen Pos%
* 8/15 Case peak is still on?
* Hospitalizations fingers crossed next 2-3 days for fast deceleration

9/end

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11 Aug
8/11 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/11:

1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, still hunting for a peak
2) Case rate of growth plummeting
3) Hospitalizations still hot
4) Breakdown on 112 reported fatalities

1/n
.
8/11 Positivity Rates:

* PCR Pos% .07% higher than 8/6 peak. Lots of revisions every day to dates 2-10 days back so we will see where it lands
* PCR Pos% rate of growth new low of 4.1% week over week
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Slight bump today, but not uncommon.

2/n
. ImageImageImage
8/11 Rate of Growth Analysis:

* For Case & Hosp the RoG is Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.1%
* Case rate of growth plummeting, down to 12.5%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 39.7%

3/n
. Image
Read 9 tweets
10 Aug
8/10 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/10:

1) PCR Pos% in tentative 8/6 peak
2) Rates of growth decline
3) Hospitalizations running hot
4) New Fatality projections
5) Breakdown on 84 reported fatalities

1/n
.
8/10 Positivity Rates:

* PCR forming a August 6 peak. Unlike last Tuesday when new high was set, today only 3rd highest of the past 4 days. Not ready to call it quite yet, but it lines up with the Rt peaks. About time.
* Antigen peak still 8/1. Declining strongly now.

2/n
.
8/10 Rate of Growth Analysis:

* Put all three in one chart. Easy to see trend
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.2%
* Case rate of growth down to 25.2%
* Hosps rate of growth down to 41%

PCR & Case rates of growth declining rapidly. Hopefully hosps do same shortly

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets
9 Aug
8/9 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/9:

1) Rates of growth continue to slow
2) PCR typical Monday showing a peak, but rate of growth almost zero
3) Cases flattening?
4) Hospitalizations rate of growth slowing
5) Fatality breakdown

1/n
.
8/9 Rate of Growth Analysis

* PCR Positivity Rate of growth is nearly zero, lowest since June 16
* Case Rate of growth is slowest since July 7
* Hospitalization rate of growth is slowest since July 18

2/n
.
8/9 Positivity Rate

* Antigen peak holds at Aug 1. Now 8 days of declines
* PCR now 2 days of decline, an Aug 6 peak
* However, we've seen this before after a weekend. Tomorrow will be key to see if PCR Peak holds. With rate of growth ~ zero, better chance of this.

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets
9 Aug
8/8 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/8:
1) Rate of growth is slowing across the board
2) Antigen pos% in decline, PCR Flat
3) Case update
4) Hospitalizations & ICU growth slowing, behind 2020
5) 3 days of Fatality arrival breakdown

1/n
.
8/8 Rate of Growth Analysis:

* Antigen Pos% in strong decline (next slide)
* Rest of metrics showing significant slowdown in rate of growth
* Lines up w/ flattening of Rt per Covidestim.org
* PCR Pos% rate of growth nearing zero. Cases & Hosps starting decline

2/n
.
8/8 Positivity Rate:

* Antigen now in a fairly steep decline. Peak moved 2 days forward to 8/1 but a week of declines now.
* PCR rate of growth nearing zero, with the typical weekend peak forming. Will be watching for confirmed peak in next 2-3 days.

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets

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