Thread by @ABarbashin

Had a fun talk (link below) with Vladislav Inozemtsev and Vasily Zharkov about #sanctions, Russia - West relations and the role sanctions play in Russian domestic opposition discourse. #Belarus & #sanctions theme was also mentioned. Few key points and arguments:

Inozemtsev: sanctions or not West can't change Russian regime; no sanctions whatsoever can kick Putin out of Kremlin; Russia is simply too strong to be coerced by sanctions (It's not Yugoslavia);
Sanctions need to be fast - in order to work, they can't be anticipated

Western sanctions policy towards Russia is careful, moderate and cautious. $$$ matters.
Sanctions are a feature of solidarity with UA and affirmation of Euro-Atlantic unity. NS2 sanctions was a weird story from day one;
As long as Putin does not escalate (considerably) no new

meaningful sanctions would be introduced; we are witnessing a sanctions pause - Washington and Moscow seek new form of communication; However no reset is possible, we're talking about 'some coordination' in 'some areas'.
Vasily Zharkov: sanctions and the West in general can't

help Russian opposition; the West has been consistent in respecting Russian sovereignty. Sanctions are only about western national interests, those in Russian opposition who count on it are mistaken greatly.
Sanctions are often about values, norms and self-perception

Let's be clear, this dialogue between Moscow and Washington is a not a bad news. Russian regime is quite stable - let's not fool ourselves about the prospects of the protest in Russia. Revolution is not coming.

Back to sanctions, contrary to Russia, Belarus is the case where sanctions can obliterate Minsk regime in a matter of months. But clearly, we see no political will to do that.
Inozemtsev asks a rhetorical: where are the frozen assets of hundreds of sanctioned Russians?

Bottom-line, Kremlin is ready to risk, ready to go full on - EU is not ready to risk, it is too timid to deal with possible consequences.
Zharkov stresses that whatever Western powers might say, there is a lot of push back about fighting dirty money coming from Russia and

elsewhere, so let's not be too surprised about "symbolism of sanctions".
What can the West do to help fighting autocracies in Eastern Europe?
Zharkov: support emigre communities, open big Russian university in EU, launch major Russian language media;
Inozemtsev: do the opposite!

Inozemtsev goes Warhammer mode, solidarizing with @IlvesToomas: says strip all Russians of European visas and residency permits - make them go back and take down Putin's regime. Says Russian opposition abroad will never do anything for Russia and will never come back home.

A lot more here: check it for yourself. It's in Russian
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