Its extremely good that for now vaccination is mitigating serious disease and death. But MANDATES are legally justified only if they substantially limit infection and transmission. Which requires a careful calibration of marginal benefits and marginal costs. Not anything goes.
Economists call this "externalities." But if the benefit of a decision is largely private not external, then that's a matter for private choice. Indeed, to the extent that vaccination makes it less likely that a person is infected and contagious because no symptoms...
Then they are actually CREATING externalities. This is known as the "Peltzman Effect" (or "Seatbelt Effect") named after a famous example by the great economist Sam Peltzman who noticed that mandatory seatbelt laws reduced fatalities to drivers...
but increased accidents and harm to innocent pedestrians because drivers were more protected against the consequences of their negligent driving. Fewer driver deaths and more pedestrian deaths.
For example, if vaccine breakthrough infection infectiousness is high (true) and vaccinated are less likely to get tested (true) then they can inadvertently become super spreaders.
Example story I read: vaccinated person has light symptoms. Assumes it’s not Covid. Boards a plane for a cross country trip. Turns out it’s a breakthrough on the plane.

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More from @ToddZywicki

13 Aug
What about college students, school kids, and other young healthy people (such as military) who have recovered from Covid, have natural immunity, and are being forced (or pressured) to be vaccinated?
Well here's the deal--everything that applies in my case (mid-50s, good immune system, healthy) applies EVEN MORE to them.
Baseline risk for young people even without vaccine is very low, especially for serious illness. Risk post-natural immunity is even lower. We are taking as close to bullet-proof zero risk as you are likely to find.
Read 8 tweets
13 Aug
For those of you who have recently recovered and are being pressured to get the vaccine, next time someone tells you that ask them if they would recommend that you get vaccinated against any other virus while concurrently or recently infected....
I had shingles this spring and after recovery asked my doctor if I should get the shingles vax. He looked at me as if it was the most foolish question he had ever heard and said patiently, "Well no. Of course not. You do not vaccinate right after you have a virus....
"Because it presents a high risk of hyperinflaming your immune system. Its dangerous and unnecessary. Come back in a few months and we'll check your antibodies level and see if it is safe and efficacious then."
Read 4 tweets
13 Aug
Here's one interesting observation from the week since I filed my case: some vaccinated people lecture me that Covid-recovered should get forced vax despite the fact that there is no trial data on safety (Covid-recovered were purposely excluded from the trial)...
and that there is not just the ordinary risk of side-effects (which is why responsible doctors ALWAYS avoid unnecessary treatments and procedures including vaccination) but actually ELEVATED risks of adverse effects...
because in their opinion (after reading a blog post describing a news article about one study that they have no idea of the quality or other contrary evidence) they conclude that it would enhance immunity protection...
Read 13 tweets
12 Aug
Breakthrough COVID-19 Cases May Be a Bigger Problem nymag.com/intelligencer/…
“The vaccines were never tested to prevent transmission, only symptomatic disease….”
How many of you are literally reading that for the first time?
Read 6 tweets
10 Aug
Yet another study showing the strong and durable protection provided by natural immunity: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 1/
10457 essential workers in Geneva, Switzerland because their occupations required "sustained physical proximity" with others). 2/
After a follow-up period of over 27 weeks, 5 (0.6%) seropositive and 830 (8.5%) seronegative individuals had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test" 3/
Read 6 tweets
10 Aug
Its generally recognized that natural immunity provides better protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants than vaccination with a narrow vaccine designed to target the now-extinct original variant because natural immunity recognizes the entire complement of proteins. 1/
But some people still have trouble understanding why that is. This marvelous cellular-level analysis that was just posted a couple of days ago is really informative to explain the underlying process. cure-hub.com/post/sars-cov-… 2/
The whole thing is worth reading carefully and analyzing all of the data and Figures that usefully illustrate the concepts. 3/
Read 23 tweets

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