Kandahar has fallen. This will soon be announced by @Zabehulah_M33
Clearly to everyone following my feed this was not what I’ve been expecting or predicting.
I guess the Taliban managed to hold their franchise together better than the government for the fight.
Taliban preparing video now.
Interesting. There is clearly a bot pushed coordinated social media thing going on as well because my mentions are full of jihadi fan boys crowing.
Ghani simply couldn’t build the political coalition to hold the country together. And the ISI have done a cracking job.
So now key question is to what degree China gets involved.
https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1412206102410760221
Lash gone
Pakistani jihadi Twitter is a sewer
Afghanistan psychological tipping point has arrived.
US asking @ashrafghani to resign (because he was useless). Looks that Kabul will be negotiated for.
https://twitter.com/cameliafard/status/1425914681064136705
Negotiations ongoing about power sharing
Seems like obvious time to do announcement/donning of cloak. Can TB get leadership there in time?
Apparently US denying asking Ghani to resign. Who knows? It would leave Abdullah2 in charge which would be an odd negotiating choice with the Doha Talibs
Word is negotiations are over who is head of interim government
https://twitter.com/hnajafizada/status/1425934262784626699
This surely a Suez moment for US, once China steps up as powerbroker?
I mean evacuating your civilians (embassy?) along with the UK a pretty big sign
War is psychological - there was a gaping hole at the centre of Ghani's gov where a political settlement should have been (held together only by US firepower) - and the ISI used semi-professionals, in concert with local mafia types to push that coalition until it toppled over
Pretty good hedging wouldn't you say?
https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1425957770843627521?s=20
Interesting. Reports Karzai is in Kandahar
Some many failures collectively have led to this point.
Re Karzai in Kandahar. One assumes he’s been back channelling with Baradar who is also Popalzai (Karzai is leader of Popalzai).
Can you imagine Karzai as the interim leader that’s acceptable to all?
Can you imagine Karzai as the interim leader that’s acceptable to all?
Kaleem Naqibulkah also went with him. Son of Mullah Naqibullah, he is leader of Alikozai, who there are quite a lot of in the Arghandab.
Get the barakzai on board and you’ve got the makings for a Kandahar Loya Jirga.
Only 274 years after the first one.
Get the barakzai on board and you’ve got the makings for a Kandahar Loya Jirga.
Only 274 years after the first one.
Which by the way (the barakzai guy) is Sherzai who has been with the government (who knows now?)
So one assumes this is about the remaining government troops at 205 Corps and also at the airfield.
But one also assumes Karzai (who sees himself as a peace maker) is angling to be consensus figure in any transitional gov.
But one also assumes Karzai (who sees himself as a peace maker) is angling to be consensus figure in any transitional gov.
So Karzai negotiating surrender of gov in Kandahar? So the gov troops can get out alive? Is that the play? Then US remove support for Ghani? Paving way for transitional arrangements?
Clear that US simply don’t care anymore.
Clear that US simply don’t care anymore.
Key insight from @bsarwary - people just switched sides in Herat. Here using tribal networks
https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1426069481131024387
Uruzgan and Zabol
https://twitter.com/ali_adili/status/1426071256412065793
Ismail Khan caught by TB in Herat. Second time for him!
What an extraordinary photo
What an extraordinary photo
https://twitter.com/hnajafizada/status/1426093781087047681
It’s clear stuff like this the utter failure of the Ghani gov or the US et al to build a successful political franchise in Afg. Everyone just switched sides.
https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1426094886651142146
You see the US intervention was seen in terms of developmenty goals like democracy, and ‘participation’ and what not. But the reality is in Afghanistan you need to talk about and deal with real issues otherwise you open yourself up to armed attack from another political franchise
Click in subtweet for video
https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1426098453654896642
Confirmed by TB. Ismail Khan has switched sides in Herat.
https://twitter.com/zabehulah_m33/status/1426097985994334211
Can anyone who speaks Dari translate the gist for me?
https://twitter.com/karimi_shafi/status/1426102543327842308
This is why we’ll get transitional arrangements. But key question - can Doha Talibs control younger more extreme military wing?
https://twitter.com/tomas_niklasson/status/1426109530627313667
Excellent analysis
https://twitter.com/anand_gopal_/status/1426201870549364741
If you’re interested and would like to read more you can get a
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off the paperback of An Intimate War
Go here: hurstpublishers.com/book/an-intima…
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Oh for god's sake. Just go man. Thousands of lives depend on it.
https://twitter.com/SecKermani/status/1426247077370241031?s=20
Ghani not resigning is delusional. But will the Talibs really take Kabul by force? Seems too far fetched. Wait him out? Surround the city?
This confirmed by Afg gov sources
https://twitter.com/BhittaniKhannnn/status/1426186030147907596
Rumours have it that Ismael Khan has gone to Kabul to get Atta Noor to come over. I guess that would expose Dostum. Echoes of history here.
Ok. Early reports that there is a transitional deal. 17/34 provinces to TB. Afg mil to disarm. Gov with TB ‘participation’
https://twitter.com/Bjorn_Wegner/status/1426295118924075014
Logar gone. 70km from Kabul
Pretty clear now that Taliban massacres of previous adversaries have occurred in several areas to settle scores. Conflict, as always, local. Another set of war crimes committed in Afghanistan that will likely go unpunished.
Ghani - whose entire world view is predicated on the western post conflict reconstruction model - is facing a total personal crisis. Everything he has believed in - his life’s work - is crumbling in front of him. This is what is stopping him resigning.
If the rumours are true and Ismael Khan is trying to get atta to flip, then surely that will be curtains?
And I guess at probably will flip because it will expose Dostum - his foe - to the TB. And the TB want to get Dostum for the shipping containers.
A lot of badal (revenge) being served up today.
A lot of badal (revenge) being served up today.
If true, clear that fragmentation has started already
https://twitter.com/Paktyaw4l/status/1426327129172680707
This an excellent piece. Pakistan and China have miscalculated and now own this
wsj.com/articles/afgha…
wsj.com/articles/afgha…
So Dostum is gonna hold out. Has atta flipped?
https://twitter.com/darksecretplace/status/1426282400267468804
So it seems like today (Saturday) is the crunch day in Kabul
Atta and Dostum signed and agreement yesterday but apparently they can’t agree on command structures. Plus ça change 
NATO allies must be absolutely furious with the US at the unilateral nature of this. They’re now trying to get all their local staff out via the member state embassies.
Anyone heard anything from Massoud Jr. Surely the Panjshiris can’t flip?!
Battle for Mazar ongoing. Locals switching jeans for shalwar kameez
NATO, US, UK everyone pulling out of Kabul. This is starting to look like a rout
Other provincial capitals falling, districts falling
US sources say that Ghani was in a state of total denial when the ambassador saw him on Friday.
One assumes 1) that presence of us and uk troops plus air support will deter the Talibs from entering Kabul and 2) the multiple countries warning Talibs not to enter Kabul by force will stop them as they want int recognition
But this relies on two things:
1) Doha Talibs have control of guys on ground; and
2) Ghani will resign to pave way for transition.
1) Doha Talibs have control of guys on ground; and
2) Ghani will resign to pave way for transition.
Ashraf Ghani shortly to make speech.
Fascinating article from 2014. Clear Pentagon has some blame but surely also state for not forcing Ghani to broaden his coalition. theguardian.com/world/2014/feb…
The P2K provinces look gone or going.
That CIA-trained militia force is gonna get slaughtered.
That CIA-trained militia force is gonna get slaughtered.
Love to have a comment from @MansourHaqqani ? I assume you’ve got dogs in these fights!
GHANI statement: not a resignation but recognising ‘historic responsibility’. Seems like it’s coming
There’s still some battle going on in Maidan Shah capital of Wardak. Apparently the government is reinforcing it. Nuts. I thought it fell hours ago.
Just spoke to a friend in Kabul. Real fear in his voice. Awful.
Kunar gone
Embassies and NATO massively speeding up plans to get people out
Apparently Ghani insisting on elections after transition but can’t see Talibs going for that. But much harder to take Kabul by force now with 3600 US/UK troops on the ground (although they may leave after evac)
Gardez gone apparently although some KPF holding out. TB now bringing stuff in for the fight.
So there must be like ten or twelve provinces left in gov hands.
Where’s the national political solution here?
All the local politicians have switched sides.
Where’s the national political solution here?
All the local politicians have switched sides.
Locals pelting fleeing government soldiers as they leave Asadabad, Kunar. Not everyone that keen on the Talibs then.
Great here from Bilal who is from Asadabad.
https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1426508452860399619
The price of automatic weapons has dropped by 40% in two months in Afg as all those government stocks have come onto the market
https://twitter.com/calibreobscura/status/1426595888500199425
And Mazar has fallen.
Very confused situation in Mazar, but in Taliban hands
Helicopters seen leaving for Uzbekistan so maybe atta has flipped (my assumption is that would have been Dostum getting out)
So just Kabul and Jalalabad left. Transitional arrangements now please. You cannot fight over a city of 4m people. This is plain.
This is a great point. IS officials attending security meetings with Ghani. Why aren’t they telling him to step down and negotiate handover? This is nuts.
https://twitter.com/pakindc/status/1426600701250125830
Jalalabad will be falling soon
Ok. Word on the street. IEA to have full blown press conference on Sunday to launch Emirate. In Kandahar. Apparently foreign media invited. Can you confirm @BBCYaldaHakim @SecKermani @AJEnglish @CGTNOfficial ?
Sorry. Press conference in Kandahar. Dunno about emirate.
So if that’s true it lends credence that the Talibs won’t attack Kabul. But back to the old how in control of the military are the Doha Talibs?
“The US told the Taliban that if it avoids a direct confrontation with the US troops arriving in Kabul and waits for the completion of the evacuation, that increases the likelihood that both the int community/Afghans will accept Taliban’s entry into Kabul”
That’s the leverage the us has left. Surreal.
One assumes they haven’t got nearly as many marines on the ground as they thought
But the us has got strategic reserves all over the place.
Surely you can move it along a bit?
Early reports Jalalabad gone. So just Kabul left in gov hands.
US now sending another brigade to Kabul
Who among the US, the TB, Pakistan and Afg gov is thinking rationally?
Very clear UK and UK were not expecting the collapse this fast otherwise their evac operations wouldn’t be so slow.
Hence also extra US brigade. Give US more options.
And sends credible deterrence signal
Which obviously hasn’t worked. TB are assaulting Pul-e Charki prison.
That will make the NEO super hard
Clear TB are taking Kabul by force
Posted without knowing credibly of source
https://twitter.com/geraldleroy6/status/1426652965771825155
But TB have decided to go in. Coupled with Emirate announcement in Kandahar?
Allied AirPower going in hard on prison
Also Unbelievable
https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1426642309492379651?s=20
Anas Haqqani to become governor of Nagahar. On blacklist. Clear Talibs don't want recognition (or those on ground don't / or Haqqani and Yacoub (Mullah Omar's son) who don't get on have properly fallen out.
Could also be that I was wrong and the Doha Talibs didn't want recog
Could also be that I was wrong and the Doha Talibs didn't want recog
But see rebuttal here - not clear what going on
https://twitter.com/rtaworld/status/1426673281512341505?s=20
Highly credible
https://twitter.com/hameedhakimi/status/1426678058564661249?s=20
Seems clear that TB now surrounds Kabul from North, West and South. Currently 0430 in Kabul. Sunrise in 45 minutes.
Some reports of government forces retreating, but not clear. US/UK no statement yet RE evac
Is this the strategic play?
US/UK trying desperately to get westerners out. If they can, no recog for TB.
If they fail and hostage crisis, then clear hostage exchange for recognition.
This moment will be talked about in history classes for decades.
US/UK trying desperately to get westerners out. If they can, no recog for TB.
If they fail and hostage crisis, then clear hostage exchange for recognition.
This moment will be talked about in history classes for decades.
Big questions are:
Will TB regime get recognition?
Who will be main backer? Not US (obv), so China?
Will TB regime get recognition?
Who will be main backer? Not US (obv), so China?
So China puts its hand in the mangle?
Early reports that Turkey is withdrawing from airport. That's about 9% of NATO force leaving (in numbers terms). Most capable elements remain - UK and US
Commercial flights still going into Kabul HK Airport
https://twitter.com/twiflanker/status/1426699910880145410?s=20
Eastern side of Kabul - that is still open - is route that Brits took in 1842. Deliberately left open?
This is a disgrace
https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1426703449903796229?s=20
US are moving people around by helicopter in Kabul
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1426712820729659392?s=20
Europeans evacuated by road from embassies to Kabul Airport. Extraordinary report.
repubblica.it/esteri/2021/08…
repubblica.it/esteri/2021/08…
Kabul itself relatively quiet this morning apart from the helicopters, drones, planes, and distant crumps (that's normalish).
UK embassy now at Kabul International Airport. That was probably where it started in early 2002 (maybe Bagram).
Possible that not all interpreters and other Afghans who worked for NATO, US, EU etc will get out.
This is heartbreaking (and is only one story among 10 million being told tonight)
https://twitter.com/Watkins94172109/status/1426751821008326657?s=20
Human and humanitarian catastrophe #Kabul
Commercial flights still in and out of Kabul shuttling people
Taliban Leader Hibatullah Akhnudzada releases a message to all the 'mujahideen' in the country. Short version: Behave!
https://twitter.com/IeaOffice/status/1426739361706647560?s=20
Don't do anything against the Shariat etc etc. Don't let harm come to the people.
No corruption or theft etc etc.
God my Pushtu is rusty.
Kabul normal rush hour. Kids going to school etc.
So anyone hear anything about a Ghani message at 0900 Kabul time?
Apparently Taliban announcement from Kandahar of Emirate in Afg some point today. Not confirmed just rumours.
Oh God. Trump's got something to say. The architect of this latest phase in Afghanistan's 43 years civil war
I wonder if there will be a UNSC meeting after this or if there will be unilateral moves among members. What exactly is India's plan?
A great power conference with the neighbouring states would be useful (without US, UK or EU countries).
A great power conference with the neighbouring states would be useful (without US, UK or EU countries).
Russia lining itself up for recognition
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Interestingly there aren't reports of Taliban attacking, and Kabul life seems to be going on as normal, so (please god) TB won't enter Kabul by force.
It's also very unclear what happened at Pul e Charki (Kabul) prison last night. There was a massive disturbance, and air strikes .... but .....
Will TB not attacking will be lined up with Ghani resigning and announcement today in Kandahar of Emirate that was rumoured yesterday?
Recorded this an hour or two ago. Really glad to have done it; Maz an excellent interviewer drawing out some of the how we got to where we are; can't back up my predictions, but I've made some too.
https://twitter.com/TheVoicesOfWar/status/1426780081544855552?s=20
Made some anyway, I guess I should have said. God, I'm tired
Not clear which types of Talibs (frontline or Doha) this refers to so I'll just stick it here
https://twitter.com/bashirgwakh/status/1426779939567775744?s=20
Karzai and Abdullah2 meet to decide who goes to Doha to chat to the Talibs #breaking
https://twitter.com/KarzaiH/status/1426798158345121793?s=20
My guess is Karzai will go? But this means that all the tweets from Blinken last night about chatting to Abdullah means that Ghani is probably gone, and already recorded resignation statement.
This is the deal unfolding here
This is the deal unfolding here
Just to remind everyone Karzai and Barardar (Talib negotiator) are both Popalzai. Karzai is tribal leader
Taliban headed to Bagram airbase
Senior andsf sources: helicopters at presidential palace probably getting president out
Looks like the attack is on. Reports Talibs starting to enter Kabul.
Probably why helicopters at Arg Palace
Probably why helicopters at Arg Palace
Taliban just captured 111 Kabul div
Taliban entering Kabul. So much for Karzai’s peace mission.
Little fighting. Thankfully. But sheer panic.
Now fighting near Kabul airport. Highly unconfirmed report that 2Para in contact
Curiously TB spokespeople say TB not to enter the city. So with disinformation, deception or lack of control
https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1426816258763333637?s=20
CONFIRMED UK 2 PARA in contact in Kabul
Location unknown but one assumes near the airport - as that is main airhead
Talk ongoing for handover of government.... take your time guys
Plane from Dehli just diverted from landing at Kabul.
Plane that diverted in holding pattern
Turkish commander of KIA (obviously they couldn't get away in time) has locked airport down; not clear if this is why planes are in holding pattern and cannot land
One assumes that lockdown of airport may be related to discussions at Arg around transition??
Transition=surrender
Per Reuters, Barardar in Afghanistan, which will be why the airport was closed
And the ANA had blocked the runway to stop flights landing
So this now all seems part of tranition.
High level delegation just left KIA - one assumes Barardar
Various options for next Afghan pres being discussed. Amazingly: Bararder, or Ali Ahmed Jalali (as head of interim)
The wheels are turning
Looks like peaceful ish transfer of kabul - likely earlier fighting was so Talibs (or PARAs!) who got a little bit too excited
Clear there was a coordinated arrangement with ANA and Turks closing airport so TB delegation could get in and head to palace. Whole thing probably cooked up hours ago - prob when Karzai was tweeting about his meeting with Abdullah2
So where does Karzai end up is interesting? Foreign minster my bet
Or 'Father of Nation' or something
Some made-up vain shit
AND - I think that is me for the night/day/night wherever you are. It's been a wild ride, not least for the many desperate people in Afghanistan. I think we have got to a transition for Kabul, a new bunch of people in charge, and inevitably the seeds have been sown ...
... for the next cycle of badal (revenge). I think the Talibs are gonna have a touch balancing act over the next couple of years, and their relationship with China is obviously key. I think we may look on the events of these three days as a tipping point that historians use
What is also clear is that I, and many other analysts/experts/whatever did not understand the Taliban. What has just happened has been possibly one of the best-executed guerrilla campaigns of all time.
Clearly we all need to continue learning.
And I say this having no love for them at all - I think they are medieval, misogynist and backward - I like my women equal.
The government too had huge problems and weaknesses not least its human rights abuses that match the Talibs, but on balance, I think they were a better.
The government too had huge problems and weaknesses not least its human rights abuses that match the Talibs, but on balance, I think they were a better.
But that is not what happened. We are in a new era now.
Signing off, from Fiji, Mike
Have a listen to this if you want a summary of the dizzying events and how the last twenty years got us here:
https://twitter.com/TheVoicesOfWar/status/1426854875351031809?s=20
And I guess I should finish with this, just taken inside the palace
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