The COVID setting used in Victoria were devised and periodically revised by scientists. How can we tell? Because each strategy was left in place for long enough for it to be possible to determine if it had significantly improved case numbers. /2
This allowed them to systematically move towards a series of interventions that were effective. The effects of these strategies could be seen by the inflection points in a plot of daily case numbers, generally ~a week after implementation. Much of this work is now published. /3
There is no such precision in changes to NSW case numbers. Settings are changed almost daily, so that although the rate of increase in daily case numbers has changed over time, this has not happened in a way that particular settings can be attributed to any outcome. /4
It is likely that some changes have worsened the situation, but as they were implemented with others, no clear conclusions can be drawn. "We don't know what works and what doesn't," said Gladys Berejiklian - well that's because they didn't look. /5
And THAT is because, the changes are not being driven by scientific advice.
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