The article's main point is unarguable: "we cannot control the delta variant by maximizing the immunity of only a segment of the population."
But some (incl me) have thought the main goal of vaccination all along should be to defang (make less harmful) not defeat (eliminate) the virus.
The vaccines' protection against Delta depends on the level of immunity in a person when they are exposed. Much lab evidence points to the fact that this declines with time, and independently is lower in older people (who were in most places also vaxed first).
The data are not available yet, but vaccine protection is clearly a function of variant as well as age,time since vaccination, and severity of disease, with signs -,-, and + for the last three.
While it remains true that two doses of a vaccine will do more good fully immunizing one person than boosting two more (for typical people), that is not the decision problem we face. There is no reason, if the rationale for boosters becomes compelling, to trade off promoting...
vaccinating more people vs. a third shot for those who can benefit. What we need now is data on the effectiveness of the 2-dose regimen against severe outcomes in the earliest vaccinated, most vulnerable people, which may change over time.
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At the risk of boiling down too much and certainly losing some detail, one way to summarize this wonderful thread is that when we think about vaccine effectiveness, we should think of 4 key variables: 1 which vaccine, 2 age of the person, 3 how long after vax, 4 vs what outcome.
We've been using the simple view that the major vaccines in use in the US/Europe are possibly less effective against infection/symptoms when a variant is involved, but remain highly effective against severe outcomes. Published data so far support this view.
To be more precise, we would say "so far in the general population, up to about 6 months after vaccination, the vaccines have held up against severe outcomes even from Delta, though there is some evidence from Israel, UK, and Canada of declines in effectiveness vs infection."
Different approach from many other VE studies, following HCW vaccinated vs unvaccinated, tested when exposed to a case, to assess VE against infection given exposure, consistent with our recommendations in sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Also looked at infectiousness (proxied by Ct). Take home messages: fully vaccinated 65% (45-79) protected against infection given exposure. This is lower than other estimates of symptomatic or arbitrary mix of symptomatic and other cases, as expected.
In which we show that earlier work by Rinta-Kokko et al on interpreting prevalence measures for vaccine efficacy generalizes to the COVID-19 case pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19490983/ and that the odds ratio for PCR+ in vax vs unvax persons swabbed at random
is under reasonable assumptions a lower bound on the vaccine's effect against transmission, the critical quantity for herd immunity that combines reduced risk of acquiring and shorter duration.
In contrast this statement is illogical “However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.”
This tweet got me thinking again about a topic that's been on my mind for the last several weeks and throughout the pandemic. In principle I fully agree with @flodebarre that people should evaluate arguments for logical soundness and consistency with facts, not who makes them.
But many people have asked me (most recently @AmyDMarcus) how thoughtful people should know whom to trust in getting information (science) and advice (for personal actions) and opinions (about policy) on a topic like COVID
Consistent with @flodebarre's tweet, my first response was you shouldn't trust anyone intrinsically, but should trust good arguments. As a scientist, that is how we are (or should be, there is still too much hero worship in our field) trained.
I and many other @cambridgeWG support proper investigation of SARS-CoV-2 origins including the lab leak hypothesis and continue to oppose many forms of GOF research but it is just fabrication to say we have made any statement as a group about work in Wuhan.
What we called for was a moratorium on GOF research until proper risk-benefit calculations can be done. Just as this pandemic was starting, two of us were strongly critical of how @NIH and @HHSGov evaluate GOF proposals msphere.asm.org/content/5/1/e0…, calling for much more transparency.