1. Some thoughts on Afghanistan.
2. Some pacifist nonsense aside, the US had almost no choice but to invade Afghanistan in late 2001 and drive out Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. It was a direct response to a historic attack on the US homeland.
3. Our initial success in driving out the Taliban, and at least profoundly disrupting al-Qaeda, tempted us to believe we could effect lasting change in Afghanistan. History argued against this, but human nature as always so tempted.
4. Our partners in Afghanistan, in this venture, were far from ideal, just as the often corrupt government of South Vietnam. One could also argue the same thing in a lot of places (Greece, Philippines, South Korea) where we won too. You play the hand you are dealt.
5. The Taliban knew, from the beginning, that the US commitment to Afghanistan had a political time limit. If they could play to that limit, they would "win" even if they kept losing on the actual battlefield.
6. Arguments about what the "real situation" on the ground in Afghanistan was are much like arguments about the same in South Vietnam in 1973-75. They are irrelevant to where the war had already been won or lost, which lay in the willingness to sacrifice any longer.
7. What are the lessons? Well, none of the less are easy, and I don't want to be facile and sound like "if you had just listened to me, everything would be alright" because it's not that easy or simple at all ...
8. But one lesson is that when you must fight, it's important to identify your realistically achievable objectives and stick to them. The First Gulf War is a model in this respect. Know your limits, even if they require an imperfect outcome.
9. A corresponding lesson is that if you wage war for unachievable objectives, you will ultimately tire. And when you tire, you may lose all of your objectives - even those that might have been feasible. Beware of this.
10. All of this requires judgment and is a lot easier to say after the fact than before, so I state these lessons with humility, not arrogance or pride.
11. But the reality is that the US war in Vietnam was lost in 1968, not 1975, and this despite the militarily ironic fact that the US *defeated* the Tet Offensive on the battlefield.
12. Similarly, the war in Afghanistan was lost several years ago, and what we are seeing right now is just the epilogue to that. And it was not lost on the battlefield, but in our own failure to understand what we could and could not achieve on the battlefield.
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