Thread by @therealarod1984

8/13 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/13:

1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, but no nose over
2) Case rate of growth up, but going up against big Saturday comp tomorrow
3) Hospitalizations - Ugh
4) Breakdown 144 reported fatalities

1/n
.

8/13 Rate of Growth Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, Rate of growth is calculated by comparing Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 2.5%. Stubborn bastard.
* Case rate of up some, to 17.7%. More in 3/n
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 36.2%

2/n
.

8/13 Positivity Rates:

* PCR Pos% Rate of growth new low of 2.5%
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Revisions keep it at a 2 day bump up. Far cry from peak
* Harvard/Stanford/Georgetown sites show Rt continuing its decline. Both now at 1.23

3/n
.

8/13 Cases:

* Not great today
* 10.5K cases reported, up from last Fri 8.8K
* Case rate of growth up to 17.7%
* As mentioned yesterday, last Friday was going to be a weak comp. Last Saturday was record 16.9K. Sunday was a big day as well. We'll see what weekend brings.

4/n
.

8/13 Intermission:

Taking a short break from your regularly scheduled programming to violate CDC guidelines, & purchase several large bottles of whiskey and other spirits. For medicinal purposes. As Im in need of something to get me through this crap of a week.

5/n
.

8/13 Hospitalizations

* Not good today
* +399 to 11061. Last Thursday was +392
* Rate of Growth dropping but not nearly fast enough, down to 36.3%
* Gen beds now just ahead of 2020. 2021 ICUs still behind 2020
* Indicators say peak is coming, but need to see the slowdown

6/n
.

8/13 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 9/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/22. 2021 through 6/23. 13 months apart.
* 2020 Summer Wave well outpacing 2021.
* Per yesterday, start of 3 days vs weird 2020 comps.
2020 takes off 3 days from now. 2021 isn't going to keep pace.

7/n
.

* 144 reported today +71 over last Friday
* Expected. Hospitalization line means impossible to have flat fatalities.
* 76% from last 2 weeks. 2+ weeks is going to have significant downward revisions on Tuesday.
* July diversion from Hospitalization line continues

8/n
.

8/13 Primer on Fatalities:

Explains what I mean when I say downward revisions, and the divergence between fatalities and hospitalizations. And how I'm doing 7/n - projected vs. actual comparison, why I only compare starting 21 days back.

9/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1417550891842932737?s=20

8/13 Conclusion Part 1 (of 2)

* Really not a bad week. Cases are flattening, could peak as early as Sunday.
* Leading indicators are flat to good
* Just need hospitalizations to start cooling off which they should
* But man, this week felt like total crap....

10/n
.

8/13 Conclusion Part 2

* Imminent FDA vax approval, 2-3 years early
* Booster shots
* Vaccine passports
* Activist judges blocking EOs & law prohibiting mask mandates
* People kicking unvaxxed friends & family in the crotch, scapegoating them
* Amy Coney Barrett
* #Crap

11/end