Afghanistan is proving treacherous terrain for Biden washingtonpost.com/politics/biden… Anybody solely blaming Biden for this collapse is totally wrong. This is a bipartisan clusterfuck from Bush43 to Trump45. No strategy. Rampant corruption. Nation-building done foolishly. The US was still
2/ in Bosnia when we went to Afghanistan. The US/UN had a model for training police and abandoned it. The US/UN had a model for governance that needed to be revised but we repeated the same stupid mistake: let's have a fucking election. We knew very little about Afghanistan's
3/ culture and social dynamics. From Day One, we were forking over suitcases of cash to warloads. Hello, corruption. We tolerated elite corruption on a massive scale. We allowed US contractors to rob the American taxpayers blind with projects that were only fulfilled on
4/ powerpoint slides. The next time the US bipartisan national security elite decide to build the bank accounts of the Beltway Bandits while pretending to democratize some place that is largely illiterate, just vote no. In the meantime, let's get everybody who worked on our bases
5/ out of the country. The last shred of decency we now have is to save those who risked their lives helping us. In fact, open the plane doors for all the Afghan women & girls who want to leave.

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More from @4GWDOTDOTDOT

1 Jun
There is an interesting little wrinkle in the government's "Fourth Superseding Indictment" for the Oath Keepers. The new indictment adds Jason DOLAN, Joseph HACKETT, William ISAACS, and REDACTED. The 4th indictment does not correlate any of the three named persons to the FBI #228
2/ who was shown in an FBI picture standing next to Ken HARRELSON at the bottom of the Central East Plaza stairs. When the FBI arrests someone, they put "Arrested" under their picture. But, in this case, FBI #228 has completely disappeared from the FBI's most wanted photo
3/ database. fbi.gov/wanted/capitol… Now that is interesting. Can it be that FBI #228 is REDACTED in the "Fourth Superseding Indictment"? Or is FBI #228 totally innocent? Or did the DOJ forget to correlate #228 to one of the three newly named indictees?
Read 6 tweets
26 May
I finally finished my 5-part intelligence analysis of the January 6 attack. Okey dokey, here we go. The following are the key findings of this intelligence analysis. The findings are backed by evidence and analysis.
The Single Envelopment Three Transient Attack model:
2/ Transient 1 was a deception (see Part 2). Even though the bulk of the MAGA rioters were congregating and attacking along the West Capitol Plaza the main purpose of this transient was to focus the manpower and perceptions of the defending police forces on this location.
3/ Transient 2 was the main attack (Part 3). The Proud Boys shifted their focus and manpower from Transient 1 to the Northwest Stairs. They broke through the thin police line on the stairs, dashed across the NW Courtyard, & bashed open the windows and doors on the Senate side.
Read 15 tweets
6 Feb
Opinion | Republicans have been living the big lie for too long washingtonpost.com/opinions/repub… It is funny that with the exception of Ike, every right-wing conspiracy theory has targeted Democratic politicians, and for all the job losses & flat wages, all the right-wing conspiracy
2/ theories target left-leaning cultural elites, not really Wall Street or Corporate America. When they do target the financial sector, the theories are anti-Semitic focusing on Jews. And that is in keeping with the mainstream of the GOP over decades since Reagan: tax cuts for
3/ the rich and less regulations for corporations. Combine that with the Christian Right's total embrace of the most libertarian version of capitalism just short of anarchy. Yes, they have/had the "New World Order," but how that conspiracy theory was supposed to solve the
Read 5 tweets
6 Feb
It is easy to laugh at former general Michael Flynn as he became a QAnon proponent & key figure in the Russian active measure in 2016. But, if you want to read a really astute analysis of how to do counter-insurgency intelligence operations--directly relevant to
2/ local activists & observers who want to move beyond doxxing (which is very difficult and very narrow)--Flynn's analysis is a must read. Flynn brought this to Afghanistan. The small US Army--essentially my intelligence cell in Bosnia--was doing this two decades before Flynn's
3/ analysis. I and my analysts in Bosnia went out and talked to local internationals (not local civilians, which would be collection and illegal). If you are trying to understand the nascent insurgency here in your local community, Flynn's analysis is a good start.
Read 4 tweets
4 Feb
This is actually not new for militias. They have been doing this since the 1990s. What is new is that the III%ers are doing it. The 3%ers tend to be cells in a network that use the tactic of swarm. They appear at a scene and then disappear. Oath Keepers, OTH, deliberately had
2/ strategies to form teams in local communities. They were trying to create local resistance. This operation was, in fact, derived from Gary North-Ron Paul's secret strategy developed in 2008 before the Tea Party emerged. Rhodes, the head of Oath Keepers, was on Paul's campaign
3/ staff when the secret strategy was derived. You can read about the secret strategy here: academia.edu/19378796/CHAPT…
Read 10 tweets
27 Jan
How to Defeat America’s Homegrown Insurgency nytimes.com/2021/01/27/opi… If you look at America now as a foreign country, as an intel analyst would, the future is frightening. Picture this: authoritarian ethno-nationalist, backed by right-wing Christian leaders, militias, & white
2/ supremacists stages riot to decapitate political rivals--his vice president, leader of the House, and others--but fails. Leaves office. Is tried in Senate, but his own party fails to convict him--leaving him vindicated in the eyes of his voters and as a leading revolutionary
3/ for a white, theocratic, dominionist nationalist totalitarian system. Perhaps, DOJ cannot or does not prove seditious conspiracy for Oath Keepers, III%ers, & Proud Boys. Just white people blowing off steam while strolling through the Capitol. We have a revolutionary,
Read 5 tweets

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