I finally finished my 5-part intelligence analysis of the January 6 attack. Okey dokey, here we go. The following are the key findings of this intelligence analysis. The findings are backed by evidence and analysis.
The Single Envelopment Three Transient Attack model:
The Single Envelopment Three Transient Attack model:
2/ Transient 1 was a deception (see Part 2). Even though the bulk of the MAGA rioters were congregating and attacking along the West Capitol Plaza the main purpose of this transient was to focus the manpower and perceptions of the defending police forces on this location.
3/ Transient 2 was the main attack (Part 3). The Proud Boys shifted their focus and manpower from Transient 1 to the Northwest Stairs. They broke through the thin police line on the stairs, dashed across the NW Courtyard, & bashed open the windows and doors on the Senate side.
4/ Transient 3 was also a main attack (see Part 4). The Oath Keepers “stack” formation and VIP Security detail both staged to the east side of the Capitol where they waited, inert and lacking initiative, until the Proud Boys or the MAGA rioters opened the Columbus Doors.
5/ The Oath Keepers arrived on the east side of the Capitol building at around 1335H (see Part 4).
The Proud Boys maneuver from the Transient 2 breach to the Senate Chamber up one flight of stairs was both a tactical failure and a catastrophic strategic failure (see Part 3).
The Proud Boys maneuver from the Transient 2 breach to the Senate Chamber up one flight of stairs was both a tactical failure and a catastrophic strategic failure (see Part 3).
6/ The Proud Boys transition from Transient 2 to Transient 3 was also both a tactical failure and a catastrophic strategic failure (see Part 3).
The attack was jointly planned by the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys (see Part 5).
The attack was jointly planned by the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys (see Part 5).
7/ The attack was jointly executed by the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys (see Part 4).
The inert behavior of the Oath Keepers on Transient 3 makes sense only if the Oath Keepers had pre-planned the attack (see Part 4).
The inert behavior of the Oath Keepers on Transient 3 makes sense only if the Oath Keepers had pre-planned the attack (see Part 4).
8/ There are indications, based on an analysis of Proud Boys actions linked to Oath Keepers’ communications, suggesting that the Oath Keepers were receiving near-real time Proud Boys operational updates and reacting to those updates (see Part 4).
10/ The Oath Keepers were apparently reacting to Proud Boys communications in near-real time because Person Ten, the Oath Keepers ground commander on January 6, was either co-located inside the Proud Boys’ Tactical Operations Center, or was monitoring their “New MOSD”
16/ @PaulHRosenberg @chaunceydevega @SethAbramson @emptywheel @EmmaLBriant @RadioFreeTom @DavidCornDC @DavidNeiwert @davidfrum @JoshuaHol @joshtpm @brucewilson @jason_a_w @CTExposers @InsurgentHunter @FBI
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