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13 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/4 TSLA's market share in China is collapsing to both the big legacy vendor (i.e., BYD) and the new EV start up IPOs (i.e., NIO + Li Auto + Xpeng). While many are quick to point to TSLA's exports from China to Europe as a reason for this, TSLA isn't gaining share in the EU... Image
2/4... either. In fact, it's fair to say TSLA is maintaining JUST 6-7% share in the EU NEV market (from 22% share in 3Q19); keep in mind that TSLA exported just 8.210K MIC Model Y cars to the EU in July, or ~32.6K/yr (TSLA ships its full quarter's worth of demand from Shanghai... Image
3/4... in the first month of the qtr), meaning a 500K car/yr plant in Germany may be ILL ADVISED. While one bull argument is the dominant player (BYD in this case) in a rapidly growing market loses market share as competitors flood the space, the data simply does not agree... Image
4/4... this. Why? BYD has unveiled 10 new EVs & has began delivering 6 of them already. So what happens when Ford's/GM's ~20-30 new EVs hit the US market? - H/T @TaylorOgan. For those analyzing TSLA's mkt shr, you should look at NEV share NOT BEV share (PHEVS compete w/ NEVs).

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More from @GordonJohnson19

Gordon Johnson Profile picture
14 Aug
$AMC 1/6 Wow. That's all I can say is WOW. When assessing what a stock is worth, you typically look at the current value of its assets, how profitable it will be in the future, and the amount & seniority of any other competing claims against those assets and earnings. So, when...
2/6... considering AMC lost $343mn in 2Q20, has current assets of $2.0bn vs. current liabilities of $1.6bn, and has debt outstanding of $11.1bn (much of which is trading at distressed levels) vs. cash of $1.8bn (and $5.4bn of "hard debt" looking at its capital table),... Image
3/6... and an equity value of ~$17bn (and free-cash-flow burn of ~$255mn/qtr) not to mention it was dying a slow death before COVID hit due to the explosive growth of the streaming industry and its dire impact on movie theatre operators, what is @cvpayne basing his price...
Read 6 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
18 Jun
(1) It seems someone is aggressively using the options market to push TSLA's stock up today (i.e., buying likely worthless options that expire today). More specifically, today, someone brought 77.1K weekly TSLA June 18, 2021 $630 call strike options (which expire today)...
(2)... for ~$1.00 that have a delta of 0.231. So for $7.4mn they brought 77.4K, contracts, which is the same as buying 231 shares of stock at ~$624/shr and delta hedging it until today’s close. So, looking at one contract, they purchased 231 x $624 = $144K worth of TSLA...
(3)... stock for only $100 of margin. That forces buying of TSLA stock, using options that will likely expire worthless. That's what you called legal manipulation.
Read 6 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
26 May
(1) Why does ANYONE listen to the Fed's predictions? Why does @neelkashkari and his friends at the Fed control every aspect of the financial markets given they've been wrong at EVERY TURN? What do I mean? Well...
(2) ... here's the dot plot from 2012 where the Fed was wrong.
(3) And, here's the dot plot from 2014, when the rate hike optimism was quite high.
Read 6 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
19 May
@elonmusk @Tesmanian_com (1) No he's not. Not even close. He does not seem to understand the accounting for finance leases/principal repayments. Why? Well, Amazon, whom TSLA is often compared to, uses financed leases/principal repayments - i.e., defacto CAPEX - to fund its facilities (similar to...
@elonmusk @Tesmanian_com (2) ... what TSLA does). Amazon, IN THE FIRST few pages of ALL of its presentations, shows free cash flow ("FCF") less finance leases and principal repayments to show investors its "true" FCF. When applying Amazon's method, or "the gold standard", to TSLA the "true" FCF was...
@elonmusk @Tesmanian_com (3) ... very negative in 1Q21 (perhaps this is why TSLA raised ~$12.3bn last year, and will likely do multiple raises this year).
Read 4 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
29 Mar
@INArteCarloDoss Ask yourself this. What happens when the SPAC lockups expire w/ billions in shrs to be sold at ANY PRICE by the insiders/pumpers? Remember what caused the 2000 tech crash? SPACS, for the most part, are ponzi companies - selling $1 for $80c w/ a promise to make it up on volume.
@INArteCarloDoss (2) Carson and others told you GSX had issues for months. No one cared to do the work. Is the same thing about to happen with SPACS? Don’t know. But you can pull up with lock up expirations for SPACS with a simple Bloomberg query.
@INArteCarloDoss (3) Let me help with some "hard" evidence of what's to come...
Read 9 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
18 Feb
(1) @RudyHavenstein The GameStop/RobinHood issue in a nutshell: First, on Robinhood, the issue was one of undercapitalization (i.e., RobinHood did nothing wrong). So… when the volatility on GME at Robinhood picked up, as happens at any clearing house in stock that becomes...
(2) very volatile, the DTCC asked RobinHood for more margin to trade the stock (i.e., more money, or a margin call); RobinHood didn’t have the money, so all trading in the stock (both buying and shorting) was suspended; because selling the...
(3) ... stock doesn’t require more risk from RobinHood, this was allowed to continue. This happens all the time, and is perfectly NORMAL!

On shorting, and what happened with GME, first it’s important to remember that naked shorting was made illegal in 2009; thus, every...
Read 11 tweets

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