1/ Thread: The Case for Optimism

I started my weekend with this deeply intriguing piece by Kevin Kelly.

I would like to leave my notes here because I know I want to remember and often remind myself many of the following quotes.
2/ "It is extremely difficult to create a desirable future without first envisioning it. To imagine is really the first step in creating anything."
3/ "Since we can not be certain of the future, optimism is only a belief -- a stance that could be incorrect."

"In the long run, optimists shape the future."
4/ "Civilization depends on an implicit degree of general optimism. It is a collaborative exercise."

"Civilization requires trust; trust requires optimism; civilization requires optimism."
5/ "The best civilizations create things that take generations to build and whose benefits reward not the builders but those who come after them."

"Optimism enables us to reach good and great things beyond the capability of a single generation."
6/ "Every question answered by science generates at least two new questions, two new territories of unknown things that we now know we don’t know. In this way our ignorance expands faster than our knowledge, which is healthy."
7/ "If newspapers and websites were only updated every 50 years, they might report: literacy is up, longevity increased, violence is down."
8/ "The solutions to most problems will create new problems. But if we can create 1% more solutions than problems, that 1% compounded over decades equals civilization.

However 1% of almost anything is invisible in the now, lost in the noise."
9/ "Optimism equips people a greater ability to deal with hardship, and less stress in their lives. Optimism can be learned, especially by children.

Optimism is not utopian. It’s protopian -- a slow march toward incremental betterment."
10/ "We should be optimistic not because our problems are smaller than we thought, but because our capacity to solve them is larger than we thought."
11/ "To excel in innovation, entrepreneurship, art, caring, hospitality, science and discovery, humans must try things that don’t work, embrace failures, encourage small talk and playfulness -- all inefficient. Efficiency is for robots."
12/ "YouTube and Youku (in China) in particular are underappreciated learning accelerants. It’s not just make-up tutorials...

Brain surgeons upload their latest techniques to YouTube which other brain surgeons watch, then innovate on, and share their videos within days."
13/ "When learning accelerates everything else does as well.

These reasons for optimism are so strong that I believe we have a moral duty to be as optimistic as we can. As individuals we’d be more resilient and satisfied being aligned with something bigger than ourselves."
End/ Link to the original piece:

(h/t @RishiGosalia for sharing)

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More from @borrowed_ideas

16 Aug
1/ Some thoughts on Google Search

I was listening to ILtB's episode with Sridhar who played instrumental role in Google's Search success, and is now building Neeva, a subscription based private search product.

As a $GOOG shareholder, I was curious and here's my notes.
2/ In 1Q'21 earnings call, Philipp Schindler explained drivers of search:

I. Number of queries
II. Percentage of queries that have commercial potential
III. Click-through rates
IV. Cost Per Click (CPC)

Sridhar condensed it further: volume of clicks multiplied by CPC
3/ "It turns out that persuading people to query more is next to impossible. All of us have a certain propensity to use search, and it varies from person to person." Image
Read 11 tweets
11 Aug
1/9 Thread: Why I don't care about 10 or 100 baggers

When I first came across the book "100 baggers", I found it quite intriguing. I wish I could find the future 100 baggers. I still wish to find them, but I care lot less about 10 or 100 baggers today.

Let me explain why.
2/9 The most important thing for individual investors like me is to survive in the market for as long as I live.

Survival means not to blow up. Investing is such a fun and engaging pursuit that the most terrible thing that I could do to myself is to take myself out of the game.
3/9 Given my modest lifestyle, income and age, I've run the numbers and found that a high single digit CAGR would make my family comfortable.

What if I can compound at 15-20%? When I look at the number, I can sense it's a pointless number that would add almost no extra value.
Read 9 tweets
6 Aug
1/ $IAC/ $ANGI 2Q’21 Update

I always enjoy reading IAC shareholder letter and this was no exception. Q&A, however, gets a bit too lengthy and repetitive.

Here are my notes.
2/ ANGI
“They say home improvement projects usually take twice as long and cost twice as much relative to expectations going in, and one of our goals at Angi is to prove that axiom false. Ironically, delivering that proof appears to be, well, taking us longer and costing us more"
3/ “Exercising options creates the most attention, but creating options builds the most value.”

This was classic.
Read 18 tweets
5 Aug
1/ $ETSY 2Q’21 Update

Mixed quarter. Slightly disappointing guidance, and some word of caution for even beyond 3Q’21.

We have entered the treacherous stage for Covid beneficiary stocks, and the broader picture may remain a bit hazy for quite some time.

Here are my notes.
2/ For the past 5 quarters, Etsy comfortably beat high end of GMS guidance. Not this time even though it spent 31.7% of revenue in Sales & Marketing (+491 bps YoY) in 2Q’21.
3/ # of sellers sequentially increased by 531K QoQ which is really impressive. For context, it took Etsy 4 quarters pre-pandemic to add 587K sellers.

Many one-off mask buyers left which stalled # of buyers.
Read 20 tweets
4 Aug
1/ Thread: Everything is a DCF Model

@mjmauboussin and Dan Callahan published another piece on valuation defending the use of DCF model.

Here are some interesting quotes from the piece.
2/ "Whenever investors value a stake in a cash-generating asset, they should recognize that they are using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model."
3/ "A speculator, who buys a stock in anticipation that it will go up without reference to its value. Investors and speculators have always coexisted in markets, and the behavior of many market participants is a blend of the two. But it is useful to keep in mind that these are...
Read 13 tweets
1 Aug
1/ Thread: My twitter philosophy

I have been active on fintwit for almost a year and half now. When I decided to get out of my lurking phase, I could never imagine this account could ever become such a huge part in my life.

Let me share my philosophy for building this account.
2/ I treat fintwit as my workplace. I try not to tweet something that I would not tweet if my followers were my colleagues.
3/ I do not want to get on a content treadmill which many creators seem to suffer from.

I want to create a fair amount of detachment from input and output.
Read 17 tweets

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