Thread by @alok_bhatt

Before I complete this thread, let me share my views on few burning issues that are controlling the mindspace on social media and chatter in WA rooms- about the potential implications of Afghan situation for India. Thread follows!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426043876800827392

Let this be known loud and clear: India of 2021 is NOT India of Sep 1996. Unlike then, India is not governed by a rag tag coalition best described by Sushma Ji or Pramod Ji in their LS speech- koee mila nahi to unhone bola kisi bhi gadhi ghode ko bana do and DeveGowda jee……

So what does this mean when I say India of 2021 is not India of 1996. Here are some of the points.
1) Militancy in Kashmir is under control & forces have an upper hand
2) India of post 96 had to suffer the consequences of Gujarat doctrine leading to annihilation of Intel assets

3) Quad has come up as an alternative and that has given us some leverage in South China Sea and better Intel sharing.
4) Intel infra has seen across the board improvement.
5) India’s stance against Pak is not accommodative anymore and hence they can’t blackmail us!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426544553620770819

So what does it entail for Pakistan & Pakistanis smarting under the prospect of an imminent victory over Afg. Here you go:
1) Pak doesn’t have numero-uno control over Taliban unlike 1996.
2) Taliban has developed relations in US admin, ME,China & has talking relationship with Ind

3) Pak’s Pashtun prob is not going anywhere. By conservative estimates, Pashtun population of Pak is already topping 30% and that’s why they have not been doing any census for so many years now.
4) Pashteen is a new pain in their a$£- they can’t finish him nor can tolerate him

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426545540456615937

5) Pak’s Barelvi sectarian org are powerful and South Punjab is their ticking time bomb, never leveraged or used by any outside power. Those who make fun of soft stance on Saad,will eat humble pie.
6) Taliban will try n break from Pak influence & will try their own depth

7) Taliban will increasingly become edgy and might go for their own sea routes linkage - meaning possible alignment with Baloch fighters- far fetched possibility but possibility nonetheless!
8. Possibility of Ind going back on ceasefire as now US pressure will be only verbal!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426546583567409158

Implications for China:
I truly want China to get sucked into Afghanistan- the deathbed of many civilisation and world powers. Brits and Russians saw this in 1900s and now Americans have got a taste of it . Over to China now……warlords opposed to Taliban will go BLF way!

US game plan is also crystal clear. By eating a humble pie, they have gone back to what they do best / leverage their geographical separation from conflict theatre to play their games via their assets in M world. China, for sure is gonna be USSA of 2020s now!

So, I would not leave my sleep on Taliban takeover of Afg as pain of this bitter experiment will be largely felt by following 3 countries in diminishing order :
1. Pakistan
2. China
3. USA

Ind & Russia will benefit most from their hands off policy.

Rest jaisi Prabhu Iccha!