Thread by @edokeefe

NEW FROM ⁦@CBSNewsPoll⁩ of #California voters: They’d marginally prefer to keep ⁦@GavinNewsom⁩ in office at the moment, but it looks like that will heavily depend on whether Democrats in his party get more motivated about it. cbsnews.com/news/californi…

Among all Californians, not just those voting in #CaliforniaRecallElection, @GavinNewsom gets net positive marks for handling the wildfires and the economy, as well as race relations and climate change, and is lower on crime and homelessness, which are among top concerns.

WHAT’S @GavinNewsom’s JOB RATING? A majority of Californians approve, according to new @CBSNewsPoll.

In preferences of all registered voters, "no" to recall is 8 points higher than "yes" to recall @GavinNewsom. Among the relatively smaller group of likely voters, the contest shrinks to a four-point "no" edge for Newsom.

WHY VOTE “YES” ON RECALL? First, a desire to oppose @GavinNewsom, which is even higher than the partisan push to "try to get a Republican into office." And about half are just "trying to shake things up," which is not an uncommon political sentiment.

WHY VOTE “NO” ON RECALL? For those who'd vote to keep @GavinNewsom, it's support for him personally, plus the overwhelming sentiment that there shouldn't be a recall in the first place. And most are also "trying to stop a Republican from becoming governor."

Voting "no" on #CaliforniaRecall isn’t doing overly well with many key constituencies that Democrats count on in California, for instance, white voters with college degrees aren't as definite about turning out as non-college, and Hispanic likely voters are split.

If @GavinNewsom is in fact recalled, his replacement looks uncertain: 25% of voters say they aren't sure; another 20% pick "no one" to replace him. These two groups comprise nearly half of likely voters. The "no one" group is boosted by a lot of D’s who don't want Newsom recalled

Of the candidates who are selected to replace @GavinNewsom, Republican @larryelder (23%) is the leading choice, boosted by being the current top choice among Republicans, and 2020 Trump voters, new @CBSNewsPoll finds.

READ THE FULL @CBSNewsPoll ON CALIFORNIA HERE: California's vaccinated say unvaccinated are adding risk; strong support for mandates cbsnews.com/news/californi…

ALSO: Look for more from the @CBSNewsPoll of California voters later this week on @CBSNews California stations including @CBSLA @KPIXtv and @CBSSacramento.