Thread by @raagwasgood

All this 20 years of struggle and, then - cowardly deserting Afghanistan leaves the following conclusions:
1) There is a limit to the effectiveness of, even, the 'boots-on-the-ground' measures. No matter how overwhelming the forces you have, you can't win a War if the Opposition

https://twitter.com/marcthiessen/status/1426922294102867984

opts for the doughty guerrilla warfare.
You can't subjugate such resistance, and try for peace building, without bringing the contextual parties on the table for power-sharing talks.

2) No super power in the History has been made as overstretched as the USA has been now.

So, if the point #1 rebuts Mearsheimer's weightage towards the effectiveness of the Land power,
this point (#2) re-affirms his 'tragedy' - you need that economic base to be a preponderant power in all theatres.
It's tough to define the USA a 'superpower' now as it can't do this.

At the best, the USA can be described as a 'receding/declining super power',
at its worst, a 'has-been' super power.
Altogether, it shows -
how much the Americans have to get their (domestic, read: the economic might) house in order if they want to ward off the challenge of China

This, also, validates the approach taken by the Chinese who are building themselves strong, economically,
and, avoiding fracas (with the USA, India) so as to consolidate themselves.

3) So, what's in store for the other powers - the Great and the rising ones?

Don't think there are 'Great Powers' now, save - the USA, China and Russia (who are, still, regional hegemons).
The rest, who have been (the UK, France) or are taken as 'Great Powers', don't have the might even to intervene in their local theatres, leave alone -
having a say on..

the global affairs.
The 'Rising/Aspiring Great Powers' (India, Germany, Japan, Brazil) need to focus on getting their own houses right (economy, domestic politics)
if they want to have an effective say on the High Table of geopolitical affairs.

4) There are no allies now (save, the ones maintained by China with Pakistan, and - Russia with anybody it wishes to have an alliance with; they are steadfast in maintaining an 'all-weather' relationship).
The examples of - Ukraine and Afghanistan have shown the hollowness of..

alliance strategy (for the simple reasons that most of these alliances are not based on principles/ideology, but - on short-term, self-seeking efficacy; no ally would put its head in front of the barrel as it, itself, is NEITHER willing, NOR strong enough to hold that barrel).

So, if India is holding on to the American promise that it would come to its assistance in any flare-up with China,
they are living in a fool's paradise.

5) This is the 'League of Nation' moment for the United Nations.
Sadly, the affairs of the last week, vis-a-vis Afghanistan, exemplifies the limits of the United Nations.
India, which was tom-toming about heading the UNSC for this month, couldn't even bring a resolution..

or giving a call for an urgent meeting to condemn the happenings in Afghanistan (so to just give the optics of a message, or - even, an inkling of it, to the Taliban and the rest of the World).
The 'silence' was a strategic misfire if you want to project your assertions.

6) The lesson for the diplomacy:
You can't be strong-headed, and -
egg-headed, about NOT talking with someone.
The Taliban were a factor in the Afghan politics. But, the World kept denying them even to listen ir acknowledge their presence.
Ask yourself -
how a Mandela would..

, who handled Gaddafi, would have handled the Taliban?
This brings to the table the other glaring issue 👇🏾:

7) The World is missing statesmen (with/without stature).
A Nehru, a Churchill, an Arafat, even - a @BarackObama (example: the JCPOA with Iran),
who would have the courage

to intervene, a reasoned voice to whom all would (or, even, show the pretense of) listen.
@AntonioGuterres could have filled the void, by the dint of his position, and, could have followed the lead of his illustrious predecessors like - Dag Hamnerskjöld and Kofi Annan.

8) Lastly, the discipline of #IR - the theoreticians, the practitioners, the academia, the students,
need to shun this approach that for every nail, there is hammer (and, only one hammer)!

What are we going to learn 👆🏾 from 'the Afghanistan'?

@ProfPaulPoast @ProfVarshney @RaulPacheco @DrIanHall @Medha_Bisht @APSAtweets @Journal_IS @JournalPolitics @MillennJournal

👆🏾
@SuhasiniH @JohnStanly @RezHasan @IBagchiTOI