Thread by @DharmicFundoo

Some thoughts on Afghanistan moving forward.

1. Taliban in Afg is reality.

2. Neither Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, USA nor Turkey will be trying to dislodge it. There's no opposition game left anymore.

3. Afghans have been betrayed, ANA units have crossed over to Taliban.

4. It is of no use to try to deny the Taliban recognition from our side. They ARE in power.

5. Our recognition or lack of it, doesn't make them weaker. They have access to Pak, Iran, China, Russia, etc, who can meet all their diplomatic and investment requirements.

6. If India had a credible game in Afghanistan, then it would have been different. Then we may have supported other groups. But we don't. We lack land access. We can't really help anybody there.

7. Also Taliban cannot hurt India directly. Afghanistan does not have an active border with India.

8. So why do we need to give Taliban an impression that India is against them and we are their enemy? We aren't. They have their land, and we have ours.

9. India and Taliban-led Afghanistan can have diplomatic and trade relations. They need to import something from India - wheat, rice, tea, whatever; they can do so.

10. Why should India give Pakistan the opportunity to dictate Afghanistan-India relations?

11. If Taliban want to listen to Pakistan regarding relations with India, that is up to them. After all they were long time Pakistani proxy. But now they have their own nation. They may have new things to think about now.

12. India does not need to give Taliban-led Afghanistan a reason to believe that India is their political enemy. Yes, we have ideological differences. That is another matter.

13. I want Taliban to be able to tell their Pakistani friends, that Pakistan's war of terrorism with India is Pakistan's issue and not Afghanistan's problem, that India isn't fighting Taliban, so Taliban too need not fight India, especially as Taliban have their hands full in Afg

14. What if the Taliban tell Pakistan, that they want a trade route to India passing through Pakistan. Can Pakistan say 'No'?

15. Whether it is Karzai, Ghani, Baradar or somebody else from Taliban, material interests of the country would continue to remain same, and thus influence the economics and politics of the country.

16. I don't expect, India to have any political influence in Kabul for the time being. But the need for Afghanistan to trade with India combined with India's willingness to trade, can create tensions between Afg and Pak, as Pak likes to ignore that Afg has any needs at all.

17. Yes, India needs to be careful about those Indians and others who would travel to Afg and back, due to terrorism concerns. Yes, India needs to be concerned about drugs from Afghanistan.

18. Still, normal diplomatic and trade relations between Taliban-led Afghanistan and India can upset Pakistan's calculations about strategic depth.

19. Also it doesn't help to make Taliban overly dependent on China.

20. Going forward, what India needs is a terrorism and drug firewall with Taliban-led Afghanistan, but India also needs to give them options, other than subservience to Pakistan & China.

21. So based on above arguments, I request @DrSJaishankar @M_Lekhi @MEAIndia to give the Taliban diplomatic recognition as soon as possible.

Further thoughts on Indian policy towards Afghanistan

https://twitter.com/DharmicFundoo/status/1427240860693958657?s=20