I think, Pakistan may not really have thought this through.
Many of the fighters who have gone to Afghanistan now, were earlier Pakistan's cannon-fodder. They're now in Afghanistan, and thus aren't available to Pakistan any further.
In Afghanistan, they have the goodies & power
Many of the fighters who have gone to Afghanistan now, were earlier Pakistan's cannon-fodder. They're now in Afghanistan, and thus aren't available to Pakistan any further.
In Afghanistan, they have the goodies & power
https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/1426921435688312838
There is no incentive for them to come and fight for Pakistan against India in Kashmir.
Pakistan may not have the same level of control on political messaging in various seminaries in Afghanistan, where they can spread the same anti-India hate as happened in Pakistan.
Pakistan may not have the same level of control on political messaging in various seminaries in Afghanistan, where they can spread the same anti-India hate as happened in Pakistan.
Effectively, Taliban have been freed from Pakistani oversight and control.
Sure, in Afghanistan, Taliban will do mayhem as per their ideology, but politically Taliban is now free.
Sure, in Afghanistan, Taliban will do mayhem as per their ideology, but politically Taliban is now free.
So what exactly will Pakistan use to coerce and nudge the Taliban to do their bidding?
Ideology, old ISI network, etc. Sure, clearly. But Taliban will become financially free from Pakistan, making deals with China, with CARs, with Iran. Perhaps with India too.
Ideology, old ISI network, etc. Sure, clearly. But Taliban will become financially free from Pakistan, making deals with China, with CARs, with Iran. Perhaps with India too.
India should encourage Taliban to become as free as possible from Pakistan in political and economic terms.
Ideologically, India can't do much there.
Ideologically, India can't do much there.
Taliban can't expand into India just yet. They will have to first expand into Pakistan, into CARs, into Xinjiang.
And that means much turmoil to keep everybody busy.
TTP, ETIM, IMU aren't going anywhere.
And that means much turmoil to keep everybody busy.
TTP, ETIM, IMU aren't going anywhere.
India should try to see this change as an opportunity to screw Pakistan using their own proxy.
https://twitter.com/DharmicFundoo/status/1427218614919344130?s=20
Even Imran is saying, Taliban have broken their chains of slavery from Pakistan. 😁
https://twitter.com/ndtvfeed/status/1427200219159179264?s=20
What India should not allow is for Pakistan to create a North Korea for it, where "terrorism" charges are shifted to "Afghanistan" and Pakistan gets to play the role of "moderate interlocuter", just as China allows North Korea to do nuclear blackmail of Japan and South Korea.
It is for this reason, that India should give even the Taliban-led Afghanistan more options than just dependence on Pakistan.
This is their preferred direction of movement
https://twitter.com/kochaaii/status/1427132643343310848?s=20
There is a chance that Taliban are not some dumb extension of Pakistan's hostile attitude towards India.
Taliban may also have Pashtun pride which is at odds with Rawalpindi's Pakjabi agenda.
In that case, there is enough space for India to work in.
Taliban may also have Pashtun pride which is at odds with Rawalpindi's Pakjabi agenda.
In that case, there is enough space for India to work in.
https://twitter.com/FrontalForce/status/1427433453591560192?s=19
Regarding Taliban's takeover in Kabul, I want India's strategic thinkers to go to the basics and try to understand, what exactly has changed for India.
Two changes:
1) women's rights and security in Afghanistan is over.
2) India's old friends in Afghanistan have lost power.
Two changes:
1) women's rights and security in Afghanistan is over.
2) India's old friends in Afghanistan have lost power.
Beyond the above two facts, what else are Indians worried about?
Indians are jumping to conclusions, based on acquired and borrowed angst and thus getting needlessly apprehensive about the future.
Indians are jumping to conclusions, based on acquired and borrowed angst and thus getting needlessly apprehensive about the future.
1) Americans out of Afpak is good for India, because we don't need to pay heed to US sensitivities anymore when defining our geopolitical interests in Afpak and recovering PoK.
US also need not pay Pakistan any rent for supply routes and bases anymore.
US also need not pay Pakistan any rent for supply routes and bases anymore.
2) Erstwhile political slaves of Pakistan: the Taliban, are now free, and they have now their own country. They are not dependent on Pakistan anymore.
So less trained fighters for Pakistan for the time being.
So less trained fighters for Pakistan for the time being.
3) Previous Afghan govt did not have much influence within Pakistan, but the Taliban have deep influence.
So when Af-Pak relations go south as they invariably will, Pakistan has got a lot more to worry about now.
So when Af-Pak relations go south as they invariably will, Pakistan has got a lot more to worry about now.
4) If China uses Wakhan corridor as route to the southwest, CPEC and PoK loses value to the Chinese.
With USA gone, China can do so.
With USA gone, China can do so.
So even though it is the right decision to evacuate Indian personnel and Dharmics from Afghanistan right now, soon it will time for India to move back in
The other question is how does one ensure that Taliban do not use and do not let Pakistan use Afghan territory against India. The answer has to be more than simply "hope" and "good faith".
I believe Indian Army shd raise an Afghan Regiment inside it, comprising of ANA commandos.
I believe Indian Army shd raise an Afghan Regiment inside it, comprising of ANA commandos.
They can be financed by them providing security services to various Gulf monarchies.
It will help India to build a security framework with the Gulf countries.
The Afghan Regiment should remain as a sword hanging over the Taliban to ensure their good conduct.
It will help India to build a security framework with the Gulf countries.
The Afghan Regiment should remain as a sword hanging over the Taliban to ensure their good conduct.
It seems that not everybody has capitulated to Taliban.
India may need to consider Afghanistan as currently fractured.
India can recognize the government only over the area that they control.
So, it is Taliban govt over Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (33 provinces) and ...
India may need to consider Afghanistan as currently fractured.
India can recognize the government only over the area that they control.
So, it is Taliban govt over Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (33 provinces) and ...
Amrullah Saleh as President of Afghanistan (Panjshir Province)
One has to admit that the civil war is not over yet.
One has to admit that the civil war is not over yet.
https://twitter.com/DharmicFundoo/status/1427650656010125325?s=20
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
