Thread by @wolfejosh

1/
Any situation with disorder + chaos = DISASTER
Right now Afghanistan is disaster

2 waves are rolling
-Regret + anger (“all for what?”) + low military morale foment
-Rebukes of failed approach + coulda/shoulda op-eds + books from think tanks cement US embarassment…

https://twitter.com/delta3halo/status/1427274809516437504

2/
Dometically (+ internationally) politically it is big distraction for Blinken + Biden who are now on and will be on justifying- then apologist- defensive

—when they need to be focused on China.

Biden critics + the videos + images will be amplifyingly unrelenting

3/ China + Russia…will help amplify VERY aggressively
(using US social media accounts)

Russia already smearing Ashraf Ghani saying he filled helicopters with cash + fled (like banana republic dicatator)…

4/ Hawks will say this is military level equivalent of ‘defund the police’. Underscores stabilizing presence of US in failed states with violent extremists.

Counter rritics will say ‘you break it you buy it’. This is failure of strategy + leadership (not intelligence)..

5/ Horrific for human rights + women and girls. And US as moral hegemon loses clout and requires ROW to denounce not the US but the Taliban

Humanitarian crises as refugees flee and other countries—esp Pakistan contend with absorbing shock + chaos…

6/ At this point few options:
-human rights coalition of democratic nations to support refugees and allies who helped US, esp women + children
-surveillence to track flood of extremists that will rush to Afghanistan

7/ And a strong speech is needed to make sure the -SACRIFICES made by veterans and Afghan allies are not SACRIFICED for naught, symbolism + meaning must be given
-balance the truth of strength of US presence as STABILIZING force + its removal as DESTABILIZING…

8/ And the no-win dilemna of half the US not wanting US nation-building even for moral good and half the US criticizing US for not doing enough

and majority criticizing strategy + leadership for not finding best solution in no-win situation

9/ this wave will be near-term (and permanent) stain + scar of Biden and Blinken and distract from more long-term threats of China (+ smaller but strategic threats on Africa continent), let alone Russia, Turkey, mideast…