1/ I am a VC––and arguably have EVERY self-serving reason to not share this...

Yet a reputation for being intellectually honest, critical of hype and a lifelong student of human behavior + markets is better than EVER being a huckster promoter misleading followers…
2/ Excellent piece from longtime friend @andykessler—a tech savvy investor who also is a student of markets

(he made a fortune running money during the .com boom + as he once told me “got to keep the money”;)…
Andy notes:

Joby is worth more than Lufthansa, EasyJet and JetBlue.

Tesla is worth more than the next 6 automakers combined.

BYND (made with pea protein) is worth more than the entire market for peas eaten globally.

Yahoo was once $125B + AOL $200B, both 99% less today
4/ “..Former Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin once explained that the Fed’s job was “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”

From the looks of it, the entire market would blow about a 0.35 (as in Dow 35000) on a breathalyzer test.”
5/“When the selling starts, FOMO turns into fear of losing everything as speculators jump off sinking ship.
Today’s (-) real yields don’t reflect reality.
Fed warned it will taper purchases later this year
Someone is at least reaching for the punch bowl.
Stick with fundamentals”

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More from @wolfejosh

16 Aug
Any situation with disorder + chaos = DISASTER
Right now Afghanistan is disaster

2 waves are rolling
-Regret + anger (“all for what?”) + low military morale foment
-Rebukes of failed approach + coulda/shoulda op-eds + books from think tanks cement US embarassment…
Dometically (+ internationally) politically it is big distraction for Blinken + Biden who are now on and will be on justifying- then apologist- defensive

—when they need to be focused on China.

Biden critics + the videos + images will be amplifyingly unrelenting
3/ China + Russia…will help amplify VERY aggressively
(using US social media accounts)

Russia already smearing Ashraf Ghani saying he filled helicopters with cash + fled (like banana republic dicatator)…
Read 9 tweets
13 Aug
1/ Have appreciation, emapthy and undersattnding for our VETERANS right now.

The ‘decision’ to “withdraw” from Afghanistan is causing heartwrenching pain suffering, frustration, anger—so many sacrificed SO MUCH (and many sacrificed ALL from limbs to life)…

i have a theory
2/ The US / Pentagon could never admit this overtly

failed state in Afghanistan under Taliban will foment violent extremists as it has
and yet now China = greater U.S. priority
History shows nation fighting two fronts often flails

Crazy 💭Our enemy’s enemy may be our “friend”
3/ CCP may recognize Taliban if Kabul fails

But will Taliban? They need
-Opium trade to China
-there are 1M muslims in concentration camps on Afghanistan border

What if US “decision” was not haphazard but calculated
“Enough—make this China’s problem on the Western front”
Read 5 tweets
10 Aug
1/ A few select excerpts from Lux Q2 letter to LPs…

“The best hedge against running out of cash—is raising it”
-“Question your teaspoon”

-“While many talk of discouraging ‘conflicts of interest’
few appreciate and encourage ‘interest in conflicts’

-The Binary (dichotomous, stark contrasts)
-The Blur (dialectic, smooth continnum)
3/ “We don’t mistake for genius what is partly attributable to central banks buying …driving rates low…and raising asset prices”

“Means may move (upward) but a reversion to the mean (downward) may move away people’s means….
Read 6 tweets
23 Jul
1/ A great article from last year.

10 Yrs ago Lux asked
Q: “What Sucks?” with nuclear.
A: waste

Lux tried to find a high-tech venture to fund. Finding none we started one.
We funded it, hired team, set budget for tech R&D, did M&A
And got VERY lucky. cen.acs.org/environment/po…
2/ One tech we had in our portfolio @ our venture (Kurion) pulled radioactive Cesium + Strontium from salt water. Nobody has this as nuclear reactor water is ~100% pure.

When Fukushima disaster struck, hundreds of milllions of gallons SEA WATER were dumped to prevent meltodown…
3/ This little US company with a TOTAL of $3M of invested capital ($1.5M from Lux and we owned 35% between common + preferred) funded at $3M pre…

ended up with $40M of EBITDA and sold to Veolia for ~10x.

Lux made 43x on that $1.5M which returned an early fund + then some
Read 7 tweets
17 Jul
1/ About last night...Strictly Business.

Legendary EPMD (green eyed bandit @iAmErickSermon + Parrish Smith)

covering Tribe Called Quest (Scenario), 2Pac (Hail Mary), Ol Dirty (Shimmy Shimmy Ya), Biggie (Hypnotize)...
2/ @funkflex on the wheels of steel...
3/ Hundreds of hours influenced my ears between them from copping bootleg Maxell tapes of Hot97 sets to
EPMD + @iAmErickSermon + @funkflex
Read 4 tweets

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