To read certain American geopolitical analysts, is to read fantasy fiction;

They assume that Modern China has learned no lessons from Qing China, the Japanese invasion, the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution - and they are doomed to repeat the same mistakes.
Anyone who claimed that Modern Britain reacts exactly the same way to the outside world as Victorian Britain, would be rightfully, laughed out of the room.

But quite a few US geopolitical analysts insist that Modern China will behave exactly like Qing China.
Then there's always a cliched discussion of China's internal geography - the assumption being that it hasn't changed for thousands of years - even when China now has 146,000 km of rail & 161,000 km of highways - which it didn't have during the Qing Dynasty.
It is this kind of flawed analysis that led to the debacle in Afghanistan. Westerners believed what they wanted to believe - but reality is a stubborn thing.

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More from @cchukudebelu

19 Aug
The Obasanjo Administration was not focused on rent seeking, that wasn't the point of its reforms.

The Buhari Regime's "intellectual foundations" are the same minds that gave us "import licenses" in the 1970s.

Rent seeking - and nothing else.
Lagos-based Nigerians in their 20s and 30s by 2015, had it easy. All they knew, throughout their working lives, was a government committed to some degree of "economic freedom".

They (wrongly) assumed that trajectory was sacrosanct. They failed to do due diligence.
They (wrongly) believed that an open GSM licensing process and financial sector reforms, was the natural order in Nigeria.

They didn't know that if Abacha had lived a bit longer, he would have simply handed over GSM licenses to his Lebanese friends.
Read 4 tweets
18 Aug
This is Generalissimo Chiang Kai Shek, Americans nicknamed him "Cash My Cheque", due to the Kuomintang's penchant for corruption.

One of the selling points of Mao's Communists was they were not as corrupt as the Kuomintang.
Lee Kwan Yew wrote that he developed zero tolerance for corruption, after seeing how the Kuomintang's reputation for corruption damaged their image among overseas Chinese - and made Communism attractive.

But this never stopped the US from cultivating corrupt patrons.
A similar story was repeated in South Vietnam. The US State Department talks a good game about "democracy, human rights & transparency", but when the chips are down - they will cultivate the most corrupt local patrons.

Has anyone forgotten Fidel and Imelda Marcos?
Read 5 tweets
17 Aug
The US did not build Germany and Japan's institutions post World War 2. Germany and Japan were already advanced industrial nations, with competent bureaucrats - US helped rebuild infrastructure and helped with reorientation, but the Germans & Japanese did the rebuilding.
Germany and Japan's institutions weren't rebuilt from scratch, both nations understood how to collect taxes, provide social services/education, maintain infrastructure and run an effective bureaucracy - long before World War 2, which was remarkably brief.
This is a lot different from Afghanistan, and much of Africa, where similar institutions never existed, in any meaningful sense - and there is a serious lack of competent bureaucrats.

So the German and Japanese example doesn't apply to much of the developing world.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jul
The naval buildup in China today, is of a similar scale to the naval buildup in Imperial Germany in the 1890s right up to WW1.

China launched a destroyer, a nuclear submarine and a helicopter carrier on the same day - and they have three more destroyers nearing completion.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Just like the Royal Navy was uneasy with Germany's naval buildup, the US Navy is uncomfortable with the People Liberation Army Navy's buildup.

Give the PLAN another ten years & Washington will be freaking out.
Great Britain and Imperial Germany did not manage their rivalry well, and things came to a head during WW1 - in the Battle of Jutland.

US and China aren't managing their rivalry well, and things might come to a head in the South China Sea.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jul
Americans believe that progress can and must be made, because that's the only lesson their history teaches.

The US is not up to 250 years old, and for all the twists and turns in its history, it has only moved in one direction - the direction of progress.
There is no "rise and fall of empires" in the American story, or centuries of stagnation - but this is very common in the world outside the US.

So while Americans cannot help but be optimistic, in vast swathes of the world, cynicism is typical.
This optimism is a double edged sword, especially when taken advantage of by US policy makers.

Many Americans genuinely believed that Afghanistan and Iraq could be remade in America's image. This was never realistic, but they believed it nonetheless.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jul
When the Industrial Revolution took off in Northern England, the British realized they needed slaves a lot less - so they were the first to outlaw slavery. They felt they could bear the economic costs.

The US South's economy was built on slavery, they had a different opinion.
I'm the last person who will ever believe that the West "fought against slavery out of the goodness of their hearts".

If that were the case, they would have fought slavery in the 18th Century (before the Industrial Revolution), not in the 19th (after it).
In the US, the industrialized North (whose economy was not built on slavery) fought the South (which depended on slavery and was slow to adopt the Industrial Revolution).

Russia finally abandoned serfdom (which was close to slavery) as it industrialized. Not before then.
Read 4 tweets

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