Thread by @EpsilonTheory

A friend of mine sent me this tweet and asked "why is this wrong?".

This NY Mag article blew me away when it came out. It's fantastic. But I don't have the same conclusion as BDW re: inevitability of Covid infection or the essential meh-ness of vaccines.

https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1425887360084963331

With a virus as infectious as Delta, we need 90% of the population with effective antibody protection to gain herd immunity.

Herd immunity isn't something that makes the virus disappear. It makes the R0 well below 1 so that it doesn't spread uncontrollably.

Can we get to 90% effective antibody protection in a way that doesn't just mean giving up and taking a 60 bps IFR (infection fatality rate)? I think we can, and the key is vax.

My assumption is there's 40% unvaxxed and they either had Alpha or will all get Delta. Unfortunately, I don't care how much time you spend in the sun or how great your BMI is or how much de-wormer you take, you've got a 30 bps chance of dying. It's > 1% if you're older or fatter.

Not old and fat. Just older. Just fatter. And long Covid is real. Say another 50 bps chance of a really sucky outcome for a long time even if you're young and fit. No thanks.

So ... no vax and I think you've got a 90% chance of catching Covid over next two years, and your disease experience will be significantly worse at every age group and health condition than if you were vaxxed.

Get a vax and I think you've got a 50-60% chance of catching Covid over next two years, and your disease experience will be better than without the vax.

Key point being ... yes, MOST people will eventually get Covid, somewhere around 65% - 70% of the population. But a) the unvaxxed will have a MUCH worse experience when they catch it, and b) I'd like to be in the 25% of the population who get vaxxed and never catch Covid.

AND I think you should get sunshine and lose weight (I've lost 15 lbs!).

AND the noble lies are just starting up all over again.

So this thread will be autotuned by both sides and will get ratio'd. Don't care.

On a related note, more than 1,000 Covid deaths reported in the US today. First time we've hit that number since March.

Shit is getting real again. Be safe. Help your neighbors.