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Alex Epstein

18 Aug, 8 tweets, 3 min read

@RossMcKitrick

Professor @RossMcKitrick is one of my favorite climate thinkers. He has a new paper on a methodology popular among catastrophists known as "fingerprinting," and argues that it commits some very basic errors. Here is his summary and some quotes. 🧵
judithcurry.com/2021/08/18/the…

@RossMcKitrick

"Some of the errors would be obvious to anyone trained in regression analysis, and the fact that they went unnoticed for 20 years despite the method being so heavily used does not reflect well on climatology as an empirical discipline." --@RossMcKitrick

@RossMcKitrick

"It has been used in dozens and possibly hundreds of studies over the years. Wherever you begin in the Optimal Fingerprinting literature (example), all paths lead back to AT99, often via Allen and Stott (2003). So its errors and deficiencies matter acutely." --@RossMcKitrick

@RossMcKitrick

"The errors they made come from being experts in one thing but not another, and the review process in both climate journals and IPCC reports is notorious for not involving people with relevant statistical expertise (despite the reliance on statistical methods)." --@RossMcKitrick

@RossMcKitrick

"If someone trained in econometrics had refereed their paper 20 years ago the problems would have immediately been spotted, the methodology would have been heavily modified or abandoned and a lot of papers since then would probably never have been published..." --@RossMcKitrick

"The AR6 Summary paragraph A.1 upgrades IPCC confidence in attribution to 'Unequivocal' and the press release boasts of 'major advances in the science of attribution'” In reality, for the past 20 years, the climatology profession has been oblivious to the errors in AT99..."

@RossMcKitrick

"These problems mean there is no basis for treating past attribution results based on the AT99 method as robust or valid. The conclusions might by chance have been correct, or totally inaccurate..." --@RossMcKitrick

https://twitter.com/AlexEpstein/status/1425155608005644290

Unfortunately, it is not surprising that the UN IPCC would make basic methodological errors for years. The IPCC is itself based on the huge error of ignoring the benefits of fossil fuels--including benefits that make us safer than ever from climate.

https://twitter.com/AlexEpstein/status/1425155608005644290

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Alex Epstein

@AlexEpstein

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@pwrhungry

Crisis: "Generac says in a recent investor presentation that power outage severity is 'increasing significantly.' Between 2000 and 2020, the number of what the Energy Department calls 'major electric disturbances and unusual occurrences' jumped 13-fold." --@pwrhungry in @WSJ

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"Renewable energy promoters don't want to admit that wind and solar are undermining the grid. But the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit trade group, said in a report last month that 'changing resource mix' is the most urgent challenge for reliability."

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Alex Epstein

@AlexEpstein

7 Sep

In one of the most dangerous and most Unconstitutional acts in US history, Congress and the President are abusing the budget reconciliation process to dictate, via a “Clean Electricity Payment Program,” that Americans use >50% unreliable solar+wind electricity by 2030.

🧵

Thanks to government mandates and subsidies, solar and wind--"unreliables"--provide about 10% of American electricity. This 10% has already caused big electricity price increases and huge reliability problems. Politicians should admit their failure, apologize, and reverse course.

Instead of admitting that the US's 10% solar+wind electricity is causing huge cost and reliability problems, our government, led by the Senate, is quintupling down on this disaster by pushing a "Clean Electricity Payment Program" that would require >50% solar+wind in 8 years!!

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Alex Epstein

@AlexEpstein

6 Sep

Today is a dark day for the medical profession. The editors of 220 medical journals, with 0 expertise in energy and climate, have called for the rapid elimination of fossil fuel use--a course of action that would rapidly increase the biggest cause of health problems: poverty.🧵

The #1 cause of health problems in the world is poverty, and an absolute requirement for alleviating poverty is low-cost, reliable energy—most of which, for the foreseeable future, needs to come from fossil fuels.

The main reason global CO2 emissions are rising is because billions of people in the developing world are bringing themselves out of poverty by using fossil fuels to power factories, farms, vehicles, appliances--as well as hospitals and medical equipment.
energytalkingpoints.com/co2-emissions/

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Alex Epstein

@AlexEpstein

30 Aug

The Biden Administration's Department of Health and Human Services has launched an office that will "treat climate change as a public health issue"--including by compelling hospitals to emit less CO2. If this office is not stopped it will absolutely kill people.

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The Wall Street Journal Reports that The Office of Climate Change and Health Equity "could eventually compel hospitals and other care facilities to reduce carbon emissions." Forced emissions reductions always make energy more expensive or less reliable. energytalkingpoints.com/energy-q-a/

Hospitals have huge energy costs--often 50% of their budgets--and they depend on ultra-reliable energy. Is the Administration going to raise their prices so they use less energy? Is is Administration going to force respirators and incubators to run on unreliable solar and wind?

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Alex Epstein

@AlexEpstein

25 Aug

@nytimes

A @nytimes hit piece by @fmanjoo says @LarryElder's election would be a "new emergency" "on top of the pandemic, droughts, the wildfires and unbreathable air."

But these are all problems @GavinNewsom has made far worse.

@GavinNewsom

Here's how @GavinNewsom has contributed to out-of-control wildfires and resulting air quality problems. @LarryElder has embraced rational forest management.
energytalkingpoints.com/california-wil…

@GavinNewsom

Here's how @GavinNewsom has contributed to blackouts. @LarryElder has embraced, low-cost, reliable electricity.
energytalkingpoints.com/california-bla…

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Alex Epstein

@AlexEpstein

19 Aug

@GovDunleavy

As yet another oil project in Alaska is halted, I want to share the perspective of Alaska’s @GovDunleavy, whom had I the opportunity to interview last week. The Governor makes a compelling case that Alaska’s right to develop is being serially violated.🧵
washingtonpost.com/politics/judge…