Lessons for Afghanistan (and Covid). In 1986 I visited Vietnam and met Dr Duang Quynh Hoa, paediatrician and former Minister of Health in the communist regime. She showed me a ward full of malnourished children and criticised her own government. (1) Image
I learned much abt the Vietnam war by reading the historian Stanley Karnow who concluded that the USA had lost the war before it began. They fought an ideological war, but lost to nationalists who simply wanted foreigners out. Many US supposed allies were VietCong spies.(2) Image
But Karnow reported the lessons gleaned from interviews with defeated US generals. How you need to know your enemies and allies. (3) Image
How there are no scientific solutions that supercede human commitment. (4) Image
How the architect of the war, Robert McNamara, used data and modelling to convince himself the US were winning...(5) Image
How military solutions cannot prop up 'unpopular, inept and venal regimes'. (6) Image
And how the victors of war face a miserable peace. Karnow also interviewed the paediatrician + Vietcong spy Dr Hoa, who realised that victorious Hanoi communist generals created an equally inept government causing mass childhood malnutrition. (7) Image
30y later Vietnam has created a stable + prosperous state + shown the world how to respond effectively to the Covid crisis. Afghans face a grim future under the Taliban. We must hope a more disciplined, uncorrupt, educated group enter government, without foreign interference. (8) Image

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More from @globalhlthtwit

6 Aug
The £20 benefit cut next month will reduce incomes of claimants less than 25years by 18% and >25 by 15%. Add in the effect of 2.5% inflation. Food bank use is up by one third in a year with one million parcels being given to children (1)
Destitution rates ("going without the essentials we all need to eat, stay warm and dry, and keep clean") have more than doubled since 2019 to 1 in 67 households...with rates as high as 1 in 17 HHs in the North West. (2)
We may expect to see 4-5 million people suffering periods of destitution this winter based on Joseph Rowntree figures from 2019, with unprecedented levels of hunger and food poverty. (3)
Read 6 tweets
6 Aug
Climate change dwarfs the pandemic threat. The influence of summits and conference of the parties (COPs) over the past 30 years shows no effect on carbon emissions. (1)
We are in deep trouble: increases in extreme weather events, floods, droughts, wildfires, sea-level rise, food insecurity. And now scary signs of Gulf Stream collapse. (2) theguardian.com/us-news/2021/a…
Each year we publish the Lancet Countdown report describing 41 indicators which track the connections between public health and climate change. (3) lancetcountdown.org
Read 7 tweets
20 Jul
I've heard three serious examples of misinformation on BBC programmes in the past 24 hours from Professor Robert Dingwall of JCVI, Lord Sumption and Sir Charles Walker MP. (1)
Dingwall, social science private consultant, who sits on JCVI (why?), was asked about Long Covid. He said the evidence was just 'anecdotal', the numbers of cases causally related to Covid was 'very small' and symptoms were due to people's 'minds' and 'stress'. He is wrong.(2)
Lord Sumption said deaths from Covid outside highly vulnerable groups is very small, 'in the hundreds'. Prof Spiegelhalter has since said he is wrong. (In India 2.2 million people are estimated to have died from Covid). Sumption should not be invited onto BBC to mislead.(3)
Read 5 tweets
18 Jul
I don't mind public criticism but I do object to being misrepresented, in a major paper like @thesundaytimes without being consulted. Their leader writer Dominic Lawson has taken a pop at me so let me correct his accusations. (1)
He says I am not 'an epidemiologist', unlike Chris Whitty. He might have checked my publication record iris.ucl.ac.uk/iris/browse/pr… I would guess 80% of my 403 research papers are 'epidemiological', including numerous population trials.(2)
He takes a 2019 twitter quote from me about being "to the left of Jeremy Corbyn on economics and environmental issues." If you look at the context you'll see I was actually defending @campbellclaret from being expelled from the Labour party. (3)
Read 9 tweets
15 Jul
Seven excellent reports in the FT from UNICEF and Children in All Policies-2030 (cap-2030.org) on what governments + companies should pursue to help the next generation overcome the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, and economic inequity.(1) ft.com/reports/unicef…
Why investing in children is the most important economic imperative. ft.com/content/01eb69… (2)
Why cutting UK aid damages families, children and also our own international reputation.(3) ft.com/content/137490…
Read 9 tweets
9 Jul
On vaccinating children. UK data released today reports that over ONE Year 5,800 children were admitted with Covid19, 690 children admitted with a linked paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome(PIMS-TS) of whom 251 required intensive care. 25 children died from Covid19. (1)
For those who want to look at the US figures and an excellent review of the risks and benefits, see this article: (2) sciencebasedmedicine.org/covid-19-and-b…
What about Long Covid? ONS figures: 14.5% (of children aged 12-16 have symptoms lasting longer than 5 weeks, and 5.7% (4.1-8.1) lose taste and smell. If half of all children aged 12-16 became infected we might expect >100,000 to lose taste +smell. (3) ons.gov.uk/releases/preva…
Read 13 tweets

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