Ameya Profile picture
20 Aug, 7 tweets, 1 min read
Some very important, intangible, topics that investors rarely see.

1. Making money is secondary to ensuring you don't bleed out on drawdown phases.
2. If you get pushed down 30-40% in every phase from the cost, it means roughly you get pushed 12-18 months on your financial independence goal. If you get pushed like this often, you won't even realize when goalpost moved from 45y to 55y on your financial independence graph
3. Nobody knows market peak. Important is to look at your PF & ask - am I playing Sehwag when I have to draw the test, or am I playing Dravid/Pujara.
4. Drawdown are very common. Those are opportunities to buy good scrips provided your entry wasn't when the scrip became crowded trade.
5. Your investment decision with fresh capital should be with following context
- Consensus
- Most love/most hated
- Broader market situation
6. I poured in the most capital in my life when we crashed in Mar 2020. Kept buying till May'20. But all recent buys are always filtered on the above metric or my setup
7. Finally, price also gives you info. as important as any funda would. If you think price is only for traders, pl open your mind. It can save you a lot when things are over heated.
CLOSED

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More from @Finstor85

17 Sep
I have been wanting to pen this down since a while. I think this is right moment. I achieved FI long ago but 2020/2021 played a crucial role in achieving that multiplier effect. I have surpassed my initial FI goal by 5fold already.
I don't own a home. I never took any loans, I don't have credit cards. Since my first job, I was focused on building passive income sources & I knew it is going to take time. I think finally I have reached a place where these sources can take care of my living very well.
I haven't been trading since some time as I focus more on professional side. I hold a concentrated PF, track few businesses, so i don't have many threads to write. I don't spend time knowing something abt everything. Rather, spend time to know everything about fewer things.
Read 23 tweets
22 Aug
A thread of now tech is changing gears in banking & financial domain.

The banking is undergoing a tremendous change with the adoption of the technology. The business that's mainly run by legacy systems is now digitally transforming.
However, there is a catch. There are companies that offer digital transformation solutions to the legacy systems. Companies such as #IntellectDesign

Then there are digitally native banks such as #Kakaobank that's fully digital since inception.
In fact, #kakaobank was build based on "technology to process" approach. While traditional banks struggle with "process to technology".
Read 17 tweets
12 Aug
Time to learn something new. Let's understand SaaS/Cloud Product valuation metrics, what matter most & what means what. Here it goes.
Churn Rate: A % of customers you are churning. Tracked both monthly & annually. A 5% churn rate means you are losing about 50% of your total customers every year, while new ones are coming in.
A churn rate of 2% is common & but close to 0 is ideal. Anything more than 3% is no good & will burn capital. Create product-market mismatch quiet often.
Read 19 tweets
22 Jul
Let's try to understand why technology product companies have historically been non-sequential in QoQ growth. Some call it cyclicality, some called it nature of the business. I will try to clarify a few things in this thread.
To understand this, you have to look at how software as evolved over last decade or two. We have moved on from bulky software that needed on-premise installations to cloud today. Naturally, revenue realization practices have changed too.
Historically, license sell for a large bulky on-prem software used to result in non-sequential growth for technology product companies. Revenue realization used to be jerky. One Q will have huge revenue, while other could be poor.
Read 20 tweets
20 Jul
Use of AI to predict trends isn't really new. However, many still question on how realistic AI can model the trend. Well, it depends on the algo of course. But something came up in my reading & I was intrigued to dig deeper! It is about #SHEIN
Ask any female if they have heard about an app called Shine, and the answer will be an instantaneous yes. The app has taken fashion world by storm & the infatuation is simply explosive. To be honest, I too know Shein, well of course, for obvious reasons 😄
Shein in some numbers:
* Accounts for 28% of the US fast fashion sales
* Revenue has grown 100% each year since last 8 years
* Outpaced H&M, Zara & many more big brands
*Design to production time is just 3 days!
* Adds 1000s of inexpensive SKUs daily!
* Daily app download 650k
Read 23 tweets
15 Jul
A lot of you requested me to post a thread on #LTTS. I did not find time, neither had motivation to do since it is a complex business to cover via something like Twitter thread or even a newsletter. Here I am posting only some abridged views.
I hold Both #LTI & #LTTS from IPO. I am an ex-LT/LTI so have a bit of sneak peak into company as well. Last 2+ years have been terribly bad for LTTS. Not because they did something wrong, but because of external factors.
ER&D space is a bit different than traditional IT. The revenue realization cycles are longer. Contracts are stickier but hard to come by as well. Unlike IT, ER&D is close to sectoral automation at frontline. IT plays role via software, but ER&D is much close to real automation
Read 25 tweets

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