Thread by @ToshiAkima

Arizona (ppn 7M) gives us a foretaste of where NSW (ppn 8M) will be in about a month but with a lower vaccination rate leading to a higher death rate (assume doubling time of 2 weeks, starting at a baseline of 650 cases/day) #DeltaTsunami

Articles like this that speak only of statistics really only tell part of the story. Even the blunted mortality from vaccination only cushions the blunt impact abc15.com/news/coronavir…

The everyday personal narratives that fill our lives will be more like this. People complain of the pain of lockdown and of its hardships. But when the tsunami of death hits us, the pain will be of a different order of magnitude

https://twitter.com/Cleavon_MD/status/1428403529299992587?s=20

People will complain that it is hyperbolic and alarmist to claim that NSW could get from 600 cases/day to Arizona's 2900. By linear growth its hard to get there, but since COVID spreads by exponential growth, it's just two easy steps away: 650-1300-2600

Given that there will be a lag before seeing the impact of stepwise tightenings of lockdown, we have effectively reached the next step of 1300 in the next couple of weeks. The question is whether tighter lockdown can halt or slow the march to the next step of 2600

For those beholden to the political spin masters who deny that NSW is seeing unbridled exponential growth, here is the refutation. Change the graph from linear to log scale and the line becomes a straight line. We're in exponential growth. End of story

And no sooner as I had spoken...this. Once again, yes indeed, we are in unchecked exponential growth

https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1428886694544035841?s=20

Here are some predictions based on proper mathematical modelling. It confirms my crude estimates and we'll hit 1200 very soon. Next station on the delta express, 2400

https://twitter.com/chrisbilbo/status/1428888782380494851